The motto behind this play "If you can't beat 'em, JOIN 'em!". I've faded Minnesota in their last 2 games as they've beat Cavs on the road and took care of the Hornets at home. Watching those 2 games, I noticed that Timberwolves are playing some decent ball right now. They're rebounding in the paint, shooting the ball well, and making their free-throws. Today there are a number of "factors" that favor the Wolves at home against the Nuggz. Let's break it down:
#1) "Revenge" The 2 teams faced off 11 days ago in Denver, where the Nuggets came away with a 2 point victory, 115-113. It was a close game with Denver making a few more 3-point shots than the Wolves. It's important to note that Wolves were playing 2nd of a b2b that night and 3rd game in 4 nights. They were also at the end of their 6 game road-trip, so it wasn't an easy situation from the scheduling stand-point. Still they played well and only lost by 2 points. That first game gave Minnesota confidence to play the Nuggz and they'll play just as well against them tonight.
#2) Size/depth advantages Yes, Timberwolves have an advantage in size and depth in this one. Carmelo is missing another game, but also Al Harrington and Kenyon Martin are out for this one. In the first game Carmelo had 24 points and Harrington chipped in with 15. Also, Darko Milicic missed that first game, and will provide additional size in today's battle. Wolves are 3rd in the league in Offensive Rebounding %-age, averaging an offensive rebound 30% of the time. Denver is 17th in DRB%. I see Minnesota controlling the boards in this one and not allowing Denver many 2nd-chance shot opportunities.
#3) Scheduling Speaking of '2nd-chance shot opportunities', Denver is playing their 4th game in 5 nights, having to travel to Minnesota after hosting Portland at home last night. This is a really tough scheduling spot for them and I don't see Denver getting many 'husstle' points today. It's tought to battle for loose balls and offensive-rebounds when you're playing on tired legs. Missing 2.5 starters (Harrington is their 6th man) from the lineup is going to make it even more difficult for this team. I don't see the Nuggets shooting that well from the field and I don't see them hanging with a Wolves squad that is a lot more rested and motivated for this one.
#4) Strong Opening # The strong # indicates to me that the bookmakers also feel this is a spot where Denver will struggle. It's not often that Minnesota is a favorite against a top 10 team like Denver. In the first game, Denver was -10.5 point favorite. Let's take into account 2nd of b2b for the Wolves, 3rd game in 4 nights, and the absence of Milicic, and assume that the # should have been around -8/-8.5 without those factors included. That means that Denver would be a -2 point favorite on the road. Well, now Denver is playing 2nd of b2b, 4th game in 5 nights, are missing some 'key' guys from their lineup, and with a 'revenge' angle for the Wolves. I would say these factors come close to about 4 or 4.5 points of 'line-value', therefore a shift from -2 Nuggs to +2 Nuggs is justified. Since this # is pretty accurate (I'd actually argue that there is some value in the # in Wolves' favor) and with how well Minnesota has been playing lately, backing Minnesota is the right play in this one.
The motto behind this play "If you can't beat 'em, JOIN 'em!". I've faded Minnesota in their last 2 games as they've beat Cavs on the road and took care of the Hornets at home. Watching those 2 games, I noticed that Timberwolves are playing some decent ball right now. They're rebounding in the paint, shooting the ball well, and making their free-throws. Today there are a number of "factors" that favor the Wolves at home against the Nuggz. Let's break it down:
#1) "Revenge" The 2 teams faced off 11 days ago in Denver, where the Nuggets came away with a 2 point victory, 115-113. It was a close game with Denver making a few more 3-point shots than the Wolves. It's important to note that Wolves were playing 2nd of a b2b that night and 3rd game in 4 nights. They were also at the end of their 6 game road-trip, so it wasn't an easy situation from the scheduling stand-point. Still they played well and only lost by 2 points. That first game gave Minnesota confidence to play the Nuggz and they'll play just as well against them tonight.
#2) Size/depth advantages Yes, Timberwolves have an advantage in size and depth in this one. Carmelo is missing another game, but also Al Harrington and Kenyon Martin are out for this one. In the first game Carmelo had 24 points and Harrington chipped in with 15. Also, Darko Milicic missed that first game, and will provide additional size in today's battle. Wolves are 3rd in the league in Offensive Rebounding %-age, averaging an offensive rebound 30% of the time. Denver is 17th in DRB%. I see Minnesota controlling the boards in this one and not allowing Denver many 2nd-chance shot opportunities.
#3) Scheduling Speaking of '2nd-chance shot opportunities', Denver is playing their 4th game in 5 nights, having to travel to Minnesota after hosting Portland at home last night. This is a really tough scheduling spot for them and I don't see Denver getting many 'husstle' points today. It's tought to battle for loose balls and offensive-rebounds when you're playing on tired legs. Missing 2.5 starters (Harrington is their 6th man) from the lineup is going to make it even more difficult for this team. I don't see the Nuggets shooting that well from the field and I don't see them hanging with a Wolves squad that is a lot more rested and motivated for this one.
#4) Strong Opening # The strong # indicates to me that the bookmakers also feel this is a spot where Denver will struggle. It's not often that Minnesota is a favorite against a top 10 team like Denver. In the first game, Denver was -10.5 point favorite. Let's take into account 2nd of b2b for the Wolves, 3rd game in 4 nights, and the absence of Milicic, and assume that the # should have been around -8/-8.5 without those factors included. That means that Denver would be a -2 point favorite on the road. Well, now Denver is playing 2nd of b2b, 4th game in 5 nights, are missing some 'key' guys from their lineup, and with a 'revenge' angle for the Wolves. I would say these factors come close to about 4 or 4.5 points of 'line-value', therefore a shift from -2 Nuggs to +2 Nuggs is justified. Since this # is pretty accurate (I'd actually argue that there is some value in the # in Wolves' favor) and with how well Minnesota has been playing lately, backing Minnesota is the right play in this one.
The line is telling us something. The oddsmakers had to know they would get a ton of action on Denver at this price.
Your best point in my opinion is that K Martin and C Anthony will both miss the game. That leaves the Nuggets pretty thin in the post. When K Mart was out for an extended period it was pretty much Nene and Carmelo working under the basket. You are probably right - the Wolves will control the paint.
I may make this my third bet today. Already on the Lakers and Memphis.
The line is telling us something. The oddsmakers had to know they would get a ton of action on Denver at this price.
Your best point in my opinion is that K Martin and C Anthony will both miss the game. That leaves the Nuggets pretty thin in the post. When K Mart was out for an extended period it was pretty much Nene and Carmelo working under the basket. You are probably right - the Wolves will control the paint.
I may make this my third bet today. Already on the Lakers and Memphis.
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