I am going to play the MAVS tonight at +6.5 as I feel it to be an Expected outcome in this matchup with the Spurs--
What I looked at in this matchup is the following.
The line is -6.5 is a little higher than game 1- However due to the Spurs losing game 1, they are a little higher, perhaps expecting the bounce back performance here from the spurs--
This would be one way of thinking the game could go--
However I followed the Spurs quite a bit in the last few months of the season and this team simply does not beat good teams at HOME-
May- Losses at home to lakers by 7- Boston by 3- Houston by 2 Okcity by 1
April losses at home to Portland by 12- duncan injured a bit Dallas by 8 last playoff game-
Lets look at their wins in march-- Washington by 22 Suns by 5 charlotte by 14 Minny by 7 G state by 1 Atl by 10 Clippers by 13-
Spurs wins in APril home-- Utah by 6 points Orleans by 7 points-
The reality here with this team is in big games they have had leads vs good teams, in some cases 15+ points and still lost the games by double digits- POrtland and Dallas-
This is a team that can beat teams it knows very well, ie Clips and Atlanta and Golden state- Spurs are close in games at HOME- Where is the blowout win vs a good team at home? I dont see it, does anyone else see it?
Vs weak road teams in Utah and Orleans they win by 6 an 7 points? This is because the REAL value of the SPURS is that they are basically mediocre team. The SPURS name is carrying extra value, their championships, the NAME DUNCAN, the home court edge is all carrrying extra weight--
Now lets take a look at the dallas mavs who are playing HOT at the right time in the season--
Dallas is 10-4 in its last 14 games of the season- They are peeking at the right time and shooting well. Game 1 they honestly beat the Spurs quite easily, but the difference was that they have more scorers and their team is a better more complete team at this point.
When Dallas loses on the road they rarely cover a spread of +6.5-
However they win outright, so they are a team that wins outright or seems to lose by more than 8 points on the road--
Spurs however are a team that cannot put teams away, they are old and cannot score enough due to having 2 options to score and having to rest Duncan--
What I am seeing here is that the better team is getting points in this game again- You can call it a must win situation for Spurs, in the past they would rebound, but the past is the past, they also had MANU and a healthy T DUNCAN--
Mavs are 7-2 in April, 2 road losses by 5 at Memphis and by 10 at Orleans a game in which they were tied in the 4th qtr--
THINKING THE RIGHT WAY----
The Right way to think in this game is simple---
On the court there is clear evidence that Spurs cannot win games at home by double digits over any good teams, yet alone weak teams- Spurs dont have the ability on Defense to stop teams anymore and on offense they go in scoring droughts- Not a good recipe when favored at home-- This is the reason they cant cover vs good teams at home and even LOSE outright over and over-- The average capper is going to lay it on Spurs thinking of a Must win game and in his mind he will be thinking of last years spurs teams and the glory years. In reality lets look at this years team, and the info I have posted-
Now is the right way to think that the Spurs are going to all of a sudden play their best game in over a month and beat a mavs team that believes they can beat them on their floor? Or is to think well Spurs have struggled of late, are injured, lack defensive athletes, lack scoring when Duncan is on bench, and have had double digit leads in games but lost those games handily?
This is the question you must ask yourself--
My answer is I think the Spurs will hold true to their ways and to their character and identity which is a team that plays close games at home-
"Believe only 50% of what you see"
This is true in sports capping, what you saw one game may not necessarily hold true the next game. Ex you see a team dominate one game like houston over portland and next game portland blows out houston-
I am going to play the MAVS tonight at +6.5 as I feel it to be an Expected outcome in this matchup with the Spurs--
What I looked at in this matchup is the following.
The line is -6.5 is a little higher than game 1- However due to the Spurs losing game 1, they are a little higher, perhaps expecting the bounce back performance here from the spurs--
This would be one way of thinking the game could go--
However I followed the Spurs quite a bit in the last few months of the season and this team simply does not beat good teams at HOME-
May- Losses at home to lakers by 7- Boston by 3- Houston by 2 Okcity by 1
April losses at home to Portland by 12- duncan injured a bit Dallas by 8 last playoff game-
Lets look at their wins in march-- Washington by 22 Suns by 5 charlotte by 14 Minny by 7 G state by 1 Atl by 10 Clippers by 13-
Spurs wins in APril home-- Utah by 6 points Orleans by 7 points-
The reality here with this team is in big games they have had leads vs good teams, in some cases 15+ points and still lost the games by double digits- POrtland and Dallas-
This is a team that can beat teams it knows very well, ie Clips and Atlanta and Golden state- Spurs are close in games at HOME- Where is the blowout win vs a good team at home? I dont see it, does anyone else see it?
Vs weak road teams in Utah and Orleans they win by 6 an 7 points? This is because the REAL value of the SPURS is that they are basically mediocre team. The SPURS name is carrying extra value, their championships, the NAME DUNCAN, the home court edge is all carrrying extra weight--
Now lets take a look at the dallas mavs who are playing HOT at the right time in the season--
Dallas is 10-4 in its last 14 games of the season- They are peeking at the right time and shooting well. Game 1 they honestly beat the Spurs quite easily, but the difference was that they have more scorers and their team is a better more complete team at this point.
When Dallas loses on the road they rarely cover a spread of +6.5-
However they win outright, so they are a team that wins outright or seems to lose by more than 8 points on the road--
Spurs however are a team that cannot put teams away, they are old and cannot score enough due to having 2 options to score and having to rest Duncan--
What I am seeing here is that the better team is getting points in this game again- You can call it a must win situation for Spurs, in the past they would rebound, but the past is the past, they also had MANU and a healthy T DUNCAN--
Mavs are 7-2 in April, 2 road losses by 5 at Memphis and by 10 at Orleans a game in which they were tied in the 4th qtr--
THINKING THE RIGHT WAY----
The Right way to think in this game is simple---
On the court there is clear evidence that Spurs cannot win games at home by double digits over any good teams, yet alone weak teams- Spurs dont have the ability on Defense to stop teams anymore and on offense they go in scoring droughts- Not a good recipe when favored at home-- This is the reason they cant cover vs good teams at home and even LOSE outright over and over-- The average capper is going to lay it on Spurs thinking of a Must win game and in his mind he will be thinking of last years spurs teams and the glory years. In reality lets look at this years team, and the info I have posted-
Now is the right way to think that the Spurs are going to all of a sudden play their best game in over a month and beat a mavs team that believes they can beat them on their floor? Or is to think well Spurs have struggled of late, are injured, lack defensive athletes, lack scoring when Duncan is on bench, and have had double digit leads in games but lost those games handily?
This is the question you must ask yourself--
My answer is I think the Spurs will hold true to their ways and to their character and identity which is a team that plays close games at home-
"Believe only 50% of what you see"
This is true in sports capping, what you saw one game may not necessarily hold true the next game. Ex you see a team dominate one game like houston over portland and next game portland blows out houston-
n this case after watching Dallas win in game 1, believe only 50% of
what you see means, half the time what you see is true and the other
half its not true and its an anomoly. In this case I believe what we
saw in game 1 in Dallas was TRUE, in that it was an accurate
representation of Dallas a a team and their ability, I also think it
was TRUE regarding SPurs, that was their team, that was their REAL
team, that was how they play and how they will play IMO.
Assessing the past game is so important in that you cant overreact and
analyze the last game wrong. Spurs had a big 15 point lead last game
and in typical Spurs fashion lost the lead and the game, that is what
they do.
It is a positive expectation for me, I am expecting Dallas to compete
tonight and therefore the +6.5 is a bonus to me, as I feel this game
will be a close game as the Spurs have not shown the ability to beat
any good team by a bigger margin. Hence this is an expected outcome. I
will also play the Moneyline on this game on Dallas.
n this case after watching Dallas win in game 1, believe only 50% of
what you see means, half the time what you see is true and the other
half its not true and its an anomoly. In this case I believe what we
saw in game 1 in Dallas was TRUE, in that it was an accurate
representation of Dallas a a team and their ability, I also think it
was TRUE regarding SPurs, that was their team, that was their REAL
team, that was how they play and how they will play IMO.
Assessing the past game is so important in that you cant overreact and
analyze the last game wrong. Spurs had a big 15 point lead last game
and in typical Spurs fashion lost the lead and the game, that is what
they do.
It is a positive expectation for me, I am expecting Dallas to compete
tonight and therefore the +6.5 is a bonus to me, as I feel this game
will be a close game as the Spurs have not shown the ability to beat
any good team by a bigger margin. Hence this is an expected outcome. I
will also play the Moneyline on this game on Dallas.
Gimme some time my friend--- I will post some good stuff and plays and be able to break down games in a good and logical manner-
When we think the right way it will help us FIND that right side of a PLAY- The right side is not always the Winning side, but it will give us the EDGE to win--
One game at a time, there is always another Bus, and we will be patient and wait for the next bus and we will make it happen, because we can make it happen. We are all in this to WIN, so lets be winners, and let the losers be losers.
Gimme some time my friend--- I will post some good stuff and plays and be able to break down games in a good and logical manner-
When we think the right way it will help us FIND that right side of a PLAY- The right side is not always the Winning side, but it will give us the EDGE to win--
One game at a time, there is always another Bus, and we will be patient and wait for the next bus and we will make it happen, because we can make it happen. We are all in this to WIN, so lets be winners, and let the losers be losers.
Crowkillers-- Agree 100% with you on the HUNGRY and FOCUS--
Dallas has the better athletes in this series- Last game Bonner was guarding Nowitski- worst defender vs best offensive player-
Mike Finley was guarding Josh Howard- Second worst defender guarding 2nd best offensive player on Dallas--
Spurs have Tony Parker who abused KIDD, however Mavs have put Terry, Wright, Barrea on him to stop him from getting layup after layup-
So what we do have here? -A team with weaker defenders playing a team with better offensive players in Dirk and Howard- -A team without their MR EVERYTHING in GINOBLI -A team with an injured Duncan who took 1 free throw last game- -A team with limited playoff experience- bonner-Mason-Hill-
And the kicker is we have this team favored by -6.5? Sign me up please, where can i Sign up? Please I need to sign up for this play?
This is a no brainer for me, if Spurs can overcome all of what I wrote above and play their A+ game they can glady have my MONEY- I will give it to them with a SMILE on my face--
This is key to not HAND your money away but to feel so CONFIDENT with your pick that you are 100% okay with giving the other team credit if they beat you, because you understand it was the unexpected outcome-- When the unexpected happens, well you lose, when the expected happens YOU WIN-
After the decision is made the outcome is in the athletes hands, it will come down to a game being played on a court with 10 basketball players, however the true identity of a team usually will come true in most games- That is all we can do, give our absolute BEST SHOT in any game, and feel GREAT about our selection--
Crowkillers-- Agree 100% with you on the HUNGRY and FOCUS--
Dallas has the better athletes in this series- Last game Bonner was guarding Nowitski- worst defender vs best offensive player-
Mike Finley was guarding Josh Howard- Second worst defender guarding 2nd best offensive player on Dallas--
Spurs have Tony Parker who abused KIDD, however Mavs have put Terry, Wright, Barrea on him to stop him from getting layup after layup-
So what we do have here? -A team with weaker defenders playing a team with better offensive players in Dirk and Howard- -A team without their MR EVERYTHING in GINOBLI -A team with an injured Duncan who took 1 free throw last game- -A team with limited playoff experience- bonner-Mason-Hill-
And the kicker is we have this team favored by -6.5? Sign me up please, where can i Sign up? Please I need to sign up for this play?
This is a no brainer for me, if Spurs can overcome all of what I wrote above and play their A+ game they can glady have my MONEY- I will give it to them with a SMILE on my face--
This is key to not HAND your money away but to feel so CONFIDENT with your pick that you are 100% okay with giving the other team credit if they beat you, because you understand it was the unexpected outcome-- When the unexpected happens, well you lose, when the expected happens YOU WIN-
After the decision is made the outcome is in the athletes hands, it will come down to a game being played on a court with 10 basketball players, however the true identity of a team usually will come true in most games- That is all we can do, give our absolute BEST SHOT in any game, and feel GREAT about our selection--
the spurs are in an almost must win spot. they will wrench down on the D, and win by DDs. dallas has a history of not showing up at all this year, even in meaningful games. and as much as they wanna say it, there work in san antonio is done..and there veteran enough to know that a split in san anton is huge. they got the split, go in autopilot, and get the doors blown off.
the spurs are in an almost must win spot. they will wrench down on the D, and win by DDs. dallas has a history of not showing up at all this year, even in meaningful games. and as much as they wanna say it, there work in san antonio is done..and there veteran enough to know that a split in san anton is huge. they got the split, go in autopilot, and get the doors blown off.
I rarely play spreads, I usually bet team points of which team that I feel has the best chance of winning the game. If they Mavs play the same as they have been playing, then they should get 91 points.
But that is only because the Spurs defense has just been horrid, and I see no reason why anything is going to dramatically change tonight.
I may also play your pick for maybe $75 and the Money line for $25
I rarely play spreads, I usually bet team points of which team that I feel has the best chance of winning the game. If they Mavs play the same as they have been playing, then they should get 91 points.
But that is only because the Spurs defense has just been horrid, and I see no reason why anything is going to dramatically change tonight.
I may also play your pick for maybe $75 and the Money line for $25
They know the Spurs are a good team, and know that momentum is big, and besides the Spurs cannot blow teams out at home. In fact they are getting major runs against them at home- lakers started game with a huge run against them, Portland did the same, and Dallas last game- There comes points where they dont score on offense and are confused--
I think Dallas out of all teams knows the importance of putting a team away on the road- IE MIAMI loss in the finals, gave them breath and they lost-
Dallas will try to send the message that spurs are done, and if Dallas loses i believe it to be a close game-
Its easy to say Spurs will blow dallas out or win by double digits but its harder to do it on the court--
They know the Spurs are a good team, and know that momentum is big, and besides the Spurs cannot blow teams out at home. In fact they are getting major runs against them at home- lakers started game with a huge run against them, Portland did the same, and Dallas last game- There comes points where they dont score on offense and are confused--
I think Dallas out of all teams knows the importance of putting a team away on the road- IE MIAMI loss in the finals, gave them breath and they lost-
Dallas will try to send the message that spurs are done, and if Dallas loses i believe it to be a close game-
Its easy to say Spurs will blow dallas out or win by double digits but its harder to do it on the court--
sammy you make compelling arguments and i love people who take the time to think things through and offer up an intelligent write up. i think dallas takes this series, but like texasfan stated above, it is a 7 game series. what i saw in game 1 was dirk nowitzki taking some high difficulty fade away shots and getting in foul trouble early. then brandon bass came in and gave them an inside game which they didnt have and then josh howard got hot, and jj barea played out of his mind in the 4th quarter. i dont expect bass and barea to have the tremendous game that they did in the 1st game and therefore like the spurs to win and cover tonight. i think dallas is very satisfied with the split, and will make adjustments in game 3. and win it in 6 but please keep these write ups coming. i love when people actually put in the time to cap these games. it is the right way to approach sports betting
sammy you make compelling arguments and i love people who take the time to think things through and offer up an intelligent write up. i think dallas takes this series, but like texasfan stated above, it is a 7 game series. what i saw in game 1 was dirk nowitzki taking some high difficulty fade away shots and getting in foul trouble early. then brandon bass came in and gave them an inside game which they didnt have and then josh howard got hot, and jj barea played out of his mind in the 4th quarter. i dont expect bass and barea to have the tremendous game that they did in the 1st game and therefore like the spurs to win and cover tonight. i think dallas is very satisfied with the split, and will make adjustments in game 3. and win it in 6 but please keep these write ups coming. i love when people actually put in the time to cap these games. it is the right way to approach sports betting
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