...the Bulls!
I really like the Bulls in this spot. And no, its not a homer pick.
I'm not a fan but an avid Bulls spectator and i know this series very well. The Nets have had the Bulls numbers for a while now, dating back to last year's games even. But with the departure of Jason Kidd back to Dallas, i think this is a good chance for Chicago to even things out a lil bit. Plus, the Nets don't play all that well either at the United Center.
Its a back-to-back situation or the Bulls but, even though i can't recall the exact numbers, the Bulls are above .500 ATS in zero-day rest games.
Top 3 reasons why the Bulls will win and cover the spread tonight:
1) Bench. The move to put Ben Gordon on the bench was the best coaching move i've seen and it was long overdue and it could only come after the departure of Scott Skiles. Lets break down the 6th men matchups:
- Ben Gordon versus Marcus Williams - edge Ben Gordon
- Andres Nocioni versus Bostjan Nachbar - EVEN but slight edge to Nocioni for this game
- Aaron Gray versus DeSagana Diop - about EVEN
2) Nets are not a good road team. Like the Bulls, the Nets have had some impressive wins at home. The Nets have been known to struggle away from the Meadlowlands.
3) It might be a biased point here, but i think the Bulls bigs/frontline are better. Good guard play from Thabo Sefolosha and good swing-man production from Joakim Noah as both play very good defense at the United Center. Give me Joakim Noah over Josh Boone anyday. Vince Carter will get his points, but, most important of all, Drew Gooden adds a post presence, something which the Bulls never had in its last 2 years stint with the Nets.
On a scale of 1 to 5 units...
3.5 units wager on Chicago -5 (early bet)
2.5 units wager on Chicago -6 (hook, late bet)
grades/projected players' performance:
above B-/C+ = above average performance
below B-/C+ = average to below average performance
Devin Harris C-/D+
Vince Carter B- Marcus Williams C+
Nenad Krstic C- Bostjan Nachbar C+/C Stromile Swift C-
Richard Jefferson C+ Sean Williams B-/C+
Josh Boone A/A- DeSagana Diop B-
Kirk Hinrich B Chris Duhon (FLU) Thabo Sefolosha A
Larry Hughes C Ben Gordon A
Luol Deng B-/C+ Andres Nocioni A-/B+
Drew Gooden B+/B Tyrus Thomas C-
Joakim Noah B+ Aaron Gray C+