3-2-1 yesterday (SEA result is still pending, but they will probably blow the game in the bottom of the 9th with 2 runners on...)
Good:
PIT (+130)
Locke has been pitching lights out all season. Arroyo is just 6-7 in his career vs. PIT with a 3.88 ERA, 1.29 WHIP. I will take Locke and the more dependable bullpen here for the +money.
BAL (+145)
Tillman is 5-0 AWAY this season and 1-0 in 4 career starts vs. DET. DET is hitting just .193 AVG in Tillman’s 24.1 IP. Porcello is just 1-4 in 6 starts vs. BAL with a 4.50 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, .322 BAA in 36.0 IP.
Bad: Fading Masterson (CLE), Cahill (ARI)
KC (+140)
Masterson is just 4-6 in 13 career starts vs. KC with a 5.03 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, .286 BAA. In his earlier match-up this season, he put up a 9.95 ERA, 2.05 WHIP, .333 BAA. Mendoza is pretty much as good AWAY (2.84 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, .246 BAA) as Masterson is at HOME (2.22 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, .201 BAA). Bounce back game for KC after their botched baserunning in the 9th inning last night.
MIA (+165)
MIA is 3-0 in Fernandez’s AWAY starts vs. NL teams since May 1st. Cahill is yet to have a quality start in 3 attempts in June and has not won a decision since May 17th. ARI has lost 4 of Cahill’s last 5 starts, and 3 of his last 4 starts at HOME.
Ugly: Fading Grimm (TEX), SF bullpen
OAK (+100)
Grimm has been awful in his last 3 starts (11.40 ERA, 2.00 WHIP in 15 IP). In his last start vs. OAK, Grimm posted a 9.00 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, .318 BAA in 5 IP. Even in his 5 HOME starts, he has a 4.09 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, .280 BAA. Conversely, Milone has been superb in his last 3 starts (2.18 ERA, 0.87 WHIP).
SD (+130)
SF has lost 3 of Baumgarner’s last 4 HOME starts – 2 of those losses were SF’s bullpen losing the game. Stults has posted less than a 1.60 ERA in 5 of his last 6 starts.