Why Some Pitchers Have Struggled After a No-Hitter
There are a couple of potential reasons.
The first is the type of pitcher throwing no-hitters. Look at the names of pitchers who threw no-hitters from 2014 to 2019: Josh Beckett, Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, Jordan Zimmermann, Max Scherzer (twice), Cole Hamels, Jake Arrieta (twice) and Justin Verlander.
While there was the occasional Chris Heston or Hisashi Iwakuma, this era was defined by aces tallying no-hitters.
Unsurprisingly, these pitchers had strong numbers in their following starts, as they put up good numbers in most of their starts.
The 2020s, on the other hand, have been more of a mixed bag.
While aces like Joe Musgrove, Carlos Rodón and Corey Kluber threw no-hitters this decade, so have journeymen like Alec Mills, Spencer Turnbull, Tyler Gilbert and Michael Lorenzen. They’re fine pitchers, but not on the Hall of Fame track like Kershaw, Scherzer and Verlander.
Accordingly, it’s not as surprising that they regressed in their following start.
Pitchers are throwing harder and with more torque than ever, leading to a rise in arm injuries. They’re also rarely asked to pitch deep into games, given the emphasis on bullpens, so fatigue was likely a factor the next time they took the mound.
Predicting How Blanco Does in His Next Start
While some long-term history says Blanco could have a decent start against the Rangers, we’re fading him. His no-hitter was a great story, but it doesn’t change the fact that he only had a spot in Houston’s rotation because of injuries to Verlander and José Urquidy.
Blanco will probably get an extra day of rest before his next start, as five of the last nine pitchers who threw a no-hitter have gotten an extra day of rest.
However, that doesn’t automatically translate to success.
While Rodón and John Means both had an extra day of rest and authored decent follow-up starts in 2021, Wade Miley (three innings, eight earned runs) and Reid Detmers (3 2/3 innings, three earned runs) struggled after getting an extra day of rest.
That said, pitching on normal rest doesn’t always equal success. Just ask Lorenzen, who allowed eight hits and seven runs (six earned) in his no-hitter follow-up last August.
And if that wasn’t enough, Blanco will likely be going against the defending World Series champions — a team he’s struggled against in the past with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.92 WHIP in 8 1/3 career innings.
When it comes to Blanco’s player props, we’d suggest taking the under in his strikeouts prop so long as the line is over 4.5 strikeouts.
While he finished last year in the 90th percentile in whiff rate, his no-hitter was only the second time in his career he recorded more than six strikeouts in an outing.
The past eight pitchers who threw a no-hitter recorded five or fewer strikeouts in their outing following a no-hitter. We don’t think Blanco will do any better since he’ll be coming off a career-high in pitches.
We also think he’ll go over his hits prop, so long as it’s set at anything lower than 6.5. Five of the last eight pitchers who threw a no-hitter have allowed 6+ hits in their next outing.
Blanco finished last season in the second percentile in barrel rate, so he gives up a lot of hard contact, as evidenced by the Blue Jays recording four batted balls with an exit velocity of 97 MPH during his no-hitter. Once the floodgates open, he should give up hits in bunches.
Blanco’s no-hitter was impressive, but you should fade him in his next outing.