Last installment on this topic for now and I wanted to summarize as
concisely as possible while giving a practical application that
hopefully people can use to improve their own game. The other thread got kind of off track so I thought I'd make a new one.
The fact of
the matter is emotions play a huge role in bettors decisions. The
challenge is to avoid psychological biases that make rational decision
making difficult. The catch being these biases are subtle and hard to
recognize, so to steal a page from the successful market investors play
book use Betting Rules of Thumb.
These are just a list of simple procedures created in advance to help
you make good decisions and minimize the emotional bias that can trip us
all up. These are some of mine, hopefully others can add some that have
been successful for them.
Stay the course: maintain a long term perspective. The
only way to build significant wealth is through regular contributions to
your bankroll. Chasing a quick big hit is the surest way to bust out.
Long run returns reflect underlying business
prospects: Don't be surprised when pigs don't fly. Try to avoid
betting on bad teams or in negative EV situations.
Dumb money ceases to be dumb when it realizes
its limitations: I know this to be true in my case. I busted out
a couple of times until I admitted I was a losing sports bettor and
started to study and learn why I was making the mistakes I was making.
My bankroll has gone up ever since. Attaching your ego to your picks is
an easy trap to fall in to.
Don't
confuse luck with brains: It isn't always due to skill when you
win or bad luck when you lose. Set the ego and emotions aside, learn
from each situation no matter the outcome.
Let your winners run, cut your losses short:
Be willing to admit a mistake, don't compound it by chasing. Being
wrong and stubborn can be very expensive.
Bulls can make money, bears can make money,
hogs get slaughtered: Be very aware of the size of your bet in
terms of percentage of total bankroll. Risk should always be the primary
concern, how much do you stand to lose with a bet?
These
are the basics that I like to keep in front of me plus one more simple
but powerful concept.
I look at my sports betting as a business
and to be successful a business must operate under the following
principles;
Preservation of
capital:As stated above, my primary concern is how much do I
stand to lose if I'm wrong, not how much can I win. Keep a personal
acceptable risk reward ratio and stick to it. If a bet/investment
doesn't offer the right price for the amount of risk then its a no play.
Consistent profitability: This
dovetails with stay the course. Look to consistently add a certain
reasonable percentage to your bankroll on a monthly or even quarterly
basis. This will keep you from over extending yourself in search of the
quick hit.
Pursuit of
superior returns: Lets say you have a quarterly accounting system
and start with $10,000 to invest/bet. I would recommend that you make
your bet sizes somewhere between 3-5% of the total depending on how much
edge you feel you have on any given play. If the first bet of say $330
wins and you clear $300 I would set aside half the winnings ($150) and
make any future bets between 3-5% of my new bankroll which is $10,150.
Likewise if my first bet is a loss my next bet will have to be 3-5% of
$9,670. This way as you win you are not only banking profits you are
playing for bigger stakes. When you lose you are protecting yourself
from a run of bad luck/poor performance breaking you.
Hopefully
this helps and as always Best of Luck in whatever you decide to play!
Last installment on this topic for now and I wanted to summarize as
concisely as possible while giving a practical application that
hopefully people can use to improve their own game. The other thread got kind of off track so I thought I'd make a new one.
The fact of
the matter is emotions play a huge role in bettors decisions. The
challenge is to avoid psychological biases that make rational decision
making difficult. The catch being these biases are subtle and hard to
recognize, so to steal a page from the successful market investors play
book use Betting Rules of Thumb.
These are just a list of simple procedures created in advance to help
you make good decisions and minimize the emotional bias that can trip us
all up. These are some of mine, hopefully others can add some that have
been successful for them.
Stay the course: maintain a long term perspective. The
only way to build significant wealth is through regular contributions to
your bankroll. Chasing a quick big hit is the surest way to bust out.
Long run returns reflect underlying business
prospects: Don't be surprised when pigs don't fly. Try to avoid
betting on bad teams or in negative EV situations.
Dumb money ceases to be dumb when it realizes
its limitations: I know this to be true in my case. I busted out
a couple of times until I admitted I was a losing sports bettor and
started to study and learn why I was making the mistakes I was making.
My bankroll has gone up ever since. Attaching your ego to your picks is
an easy trap to fall in to.
Don't
confuse luck with brains: It isn't always due to skill when you
win or bad luck when you lose. Set the ego and emotions aside, learn
from each situation no matter the outcome.
Let your winners run, cut your losses short:
Be willing to admit a mistake, don't compound it by chasing. Being
wrong and stubborn can be very expensive.
Bulls can make money, bears can make money,
hogs get slaughtered: Be very aware of the size of your bet in
terms of percentage of total bankroll. Risk should always be the primary
concern, how much do you stand to lose with a bet?
These
are the basics that I like to keep in front of me plus one more simple
but powerful concept.
I look at my sports betting as a business
and to be successful a business must operate under the following
principles;
Preservation of
capital:As stated above, my primary concern is how much do I
stand to lose if I'm wrong, not how much can I win. Keep a personal
acceptable risk reward ratio and stick to it. If a bet/investment
doesn't offer the right price for the amount of risk then its a no play.
Consistent profitability: This
dovetails with stay the course. Look to consistently add a certain
reasonable percentage to your bankroll on a monthly or even quarterly
basis. This will keep you from over extending yourself in search of the
quick hit.
Pursuit of
superior returns: Lets say you have a quarterly accounting system
and start with $10,000 to invest/bet. I would recommend that you make
your bet sizes somewhere between 3-5% of the total depending on how much
edge you feel you have on any given play. If the first bet of say $330
wins and you clear $300 I would set aside half the winnings ($150) and
make any future bets between 3-5% of my new bankroll which is $10,150.
Likewise if my first bet is a loss my next bet will have to be 3-5% of
$9,670. This way as you win you are not only banking profits you are
playing for bigger stakes. When you lose you are protecting yourself
from a run of bad luck/poor performance breaking you.
Hopefully
this helps and as always Best of Luck in whatever you decide to play!
Whatever edge you think you have - cut it in half. It's far too easy to over-estimate your edge. The pervasive attitude here at covers is to bet on anything that moves, as if there is something wrong with you if you're not betting on at least a dozen games a day. That's to be expected on a website that's sponsored by sportsbooks.
Whatever edge you think you have - cut it in half. It's far too easy to over-estimate your edge. The pervasive attitude here at covers is to bet on anything that moves, as if there is something wrong with you if you're not betting on at least a dozen games a day. That's to be expected on a website that's sponsored by sportsbooks.
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