These write up a little shorter than usual, but I was busy watching the Orioles perform an amazing come from behind win.
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CINCINNATI (Wood) @ PHILADELPHIA (Halladay) PICK: RUN LINE PHILLIES -1.5 -115 I wonder how the Reds will come out after getting to be on the other side of a late inning miracle. The face Halladay who they beat just two starts ago. After Halladay shut down the Reds for the 1st half of the game, the Reds, to their credit, clawed back and then Bruce hit the big home run to take the lead and ultimately the win. Travis Wood deserves a lot of credit -- The Reds are 2-0 in his two starts, including his last minute call against the Mets when Harang got yanked unexpectedly. I don't know enough about Wood, so this pick is based on Halladay getting a 2nd crack at the Reds. I can't play the big ML -220, so I am risking the runs to get the line down to -115.
BOSTON (Lackey) @ TORONTO (Morrow) PICK: UNDER 9 Despite the big Red Sox run explosion tonight, I still think that this team will struggle to score runs with Pedroia and Martinez out of the lineup. Sox face Morrow, who has struggled his last 2 starts, but has been solid at home for the season. Lackey had a nice outing his last 2 times out.
ATLANTA (Hudson) @ METS (Pelfrey) PICK: UNDER 7.5 PICK: BRAVES -115 Hudson keeps delivering great starts. I love the consistency of his ground ball to fly ball ratio: 243-112 for the season. Pelfrey has been great at home, but he does come off of two rocky starts. This might be a bit cute trying to call both the side and low total, but I like both equally.
KANSAS CITY (Bannister) @ WHITE SOX (Floyd) PICK: RUN LINE WHITE SOX -1.5 +115 Gavin Floyd comes into this game off of six straight sensational starts. He has really found his groove after some really ugly early season struggles. I considered taking a pass on this game due to the big line, but when I looked in depth at Bannister's past game log and his record vs. the White Sox batters, I have the confidence here to lay the runs and reduce the risk of an unexpected loss.
These write up a little shorter than usual, but I was busy watching the Orioles perform an amazing come from behind win.
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CINCINNATI (Wood) @ PHILADELPHIA (Halladay) PICK: RUN LINE PHILLIES -1.5 -115 I wonder how the Reds will come out after getting to be on the other side of a late inning miracle. The face Halladay who they beat just two starts ago. After Halladay shut down the Reds for the 1st half of the game, the Reds, to their credit, clawed back and then Bruce hit the big home run to take the lead and ultimately the win. Travis Wood deserves a lot of credit -- The Reds are 2-0 in his two starts, including his last minute call against the Mets when Harang got yanked unexpectedly. I don't know enough about Wood, so this pick is based on Halladay getting a 2nd crack at the Reds. I can't play the big ML -220, so I am risking the runs to get the line down to -115.
BOSTON (Lackey) @ TORONTO (Morrow) PICK: UNDER 9 Despite the big Red Sox run explosion tonight, I still think that this team will struggle to score runs with Pedroia and Martinez out of the lineup. Sox face Morrow, who has struggled his last 2 starts, but has been solid at home for the season. Lackey had a nice outing his last 2 times out.
ATLANTA (Hudson) @ METS (Pelfrey) PICK: UNDER 7.5 PICK: BRAVES -115 Hudson keeps delivering great starts. I love the consistency of his ground ball to fly ball ratio: 243-112 for the season. Pelfrey has been great at home, but he does come off of two rocky starts. This might be a bit cute trying to call both the side and low total, but I like both equally.
KANSAS CITY (Bannister) @ WHITE SOX (Floyd) PICK: RUN LINE WHITE SOX -1.5 +115 Gavin Floyd comes into this game off of six straight sensational starts. He has really found his groove after some really ugly early season struggles. I considered taking a pass on this game due to the big line, but when I looked in depth at Bannister's past game log and his record vs. the White Sox batters, I have the confidence here to lay the runs and reduce the risk of an unexpected loss.
Congrats on the Orioles. Those are always fun wins. Was out and didn't see the game, but I had the over so I wasn't complaining myself. Would normally have been a chase system play for me, but I saved it for today with a Lee/Millwood replacement pitching match-up. You are somewhat unorthodox with some of the games you pick, but I enjoy reading your post and analysis. It usually goes deeper than stats that you can pull from anywhere.
Congrats on the Orioles. Those are always fun wins. Was out and didn't see the game, but I had the over so I wasn't complaining myself. Would normally have been a chase system play for me, but I saved it for today with a Lee/Millwood replacement pitching match-up. You are somewhat unorthodox with some of the games you pick, but I enjoy reading your post and analysis. It usually goes deeper than stats that you can pull from anywhere.
Thank you for the comments. I love the Covers Forum because we all get to see everyone's picks and reasoning and then take the best of our knowledge to make the plays. I am big believer in the wisdom of crowds and this Forum is a gold mine for knowledge and all sorts of angles that the pros can replicate just handicapping in a silo.
Thank you for the comments. I love the Covers Forum because we all get to see everyone's picks and reasoning and then take the best of our knowledge to make the plays. I am big believer in the wisdom of crowds and this Forum is a gold mine for knowledge and all sorts of angles that the pros can replicate just handicapping in a silo.
Agree 100%. I have never been and will never be a tailer or fader, but it is a great way to get you thinking another way, and certainly not change your play, but increase it, reduce it, or NP it.
You also get good information from people in the local markets that watch a certain team all the time. That was great info you had on Matuz and Raems had regarding Hughes in your Friday thread.
Agree 100%. I have never been and will never be a tailer or fader, but it is a great way to get you thinking another way, and certainly not change your play, but increase it, reduce it, or NP it.
You also get good information from people in the local markets that watch a certain team all the time. That was great info you had on Matuz and Raems had regarding Hughes in your Friday thread.
I always pay attention when a local has a solid call on his home team, to win or to lose. Tonight, for example, as you noted, I played the Yankees run line because Raems had a ton of great color on why Hughes would battle tonight -- bingo. Hammer had great conviction on the Tigers and that was echoed in other threads.
I was lucky that the Matusz pick ended up winning despite his very poor showing. I was a bit nervous about the wet weather and the extended delay, but I still would not have thought that he would struggle the way he did.
Another pitcher that I have watched and liked a lot is Madison Bumgarner. One I have watched and don't like is Andy Oliver.
I always pay attention when a local has a solid call on his home team, to win or to lose. Tonight, for example, as you noted, I played the Yankees run line because Raems had a ton of great color on why Hughes would battle tonight -- bingo. Hammer had great conviction on the Tigers and that was echoed in other threads.
I was lucky that the Matusz pick ended up winning despite his very poor showing. I was a bit nervous about the wet weather and the extended delay, but I still would not have thought that he would struggle the way he did.
Another pitcher that I have watched and liked a lot is Madison Bumgarner. One I have watched and don't like is Andy Oliver.
YANKEES (Vazquez) @ SEATTLE (Hernandez) PICK: RUN LINE YANKEES -1.5 +200 This is feels a little greedy, but I am going to take the Yankees RUN LINE tomorrow against King Felix. This is a rematch of the June 30th game, where the Mariners beat the Yankees at home 7-0 behind a dominating CG 2-hit performance by Felix Hernandez, which capped a back-to-back flogging to the performance of, oh, Cliff Lee.
Vazquez pitched decently well that game (6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8K) but it clearly wasn't enough. Despite his 5.1 ERA for the season, he comes into this game with a very good 1.26 WHIP. Breaking that down, he has allowed only 75 hits and 36 walks in 88 IP. His weakness is that he has given up 15 HR this year, which is to be expected with a GB-FB ratio of 90-162. My angle here is the pitcher vs. batter stats for each pitcher. Mariners are 0.265 (39 for 147) against but with Ichiro at "only" (for him) 0.292 and Figgins at 0.200 and Lopez at 0.188. Those guys are the table setters and the #5 hitter.
Felix Hernandez is coming off of a Gavin Floyd-esque streak of great starts but he faces a Yankees team that has seen him plenty with Tex, Cano, Jeter, Granderson and Swisher all having around 20 or so (or more) at bats against him. Interestingly, it is Texeiria who has had the most success with 3 HR in 39 AB. I mention Texeiria because he is finally showing signs of heating up, after an extended cold streak. We all know that he stinks in April and May, but this has gone into July. If he gets things going, the Yankees will actually be under-priced, in my opinion.
Is the Run Line call nuts and/or totally greedy against King Felix at home? Maybe not on the first but yes on the second. Yankees, obviously, have the best record in baseball, and they face what has to be a deflated team after having Cliff Lee traded and then losing 6-1 by being forced to start Pauley (who deserves a lot of credit for his gutsy performance). With respect to the Run Line, I counted and of the Yankees 54 wins this season, only 7 have come on a 1-run margin, or around just 1 in 8. So that's all. It could be close, but I think that this could be another solid win and my eyes are getting big at the +200 payout for the risk of laying down the runs.
YANKEES (Vazquez) @ SEATTLE (Hernandez) PICK: RUN LINE YANKEES -1.5 +200 This is feels a little greedy, but I am going to take the Yankees RUN LINE tomorrow against King Felix. This is a rematch of the June 30th game, where the Mariners beat the Yankees at home 7-0 behind a dominating CG 2-hit performance by Felix Hernandez, which capped a back-to-back flogging to the performance of, oh, Cliff Lee.
Vazquez pitched decently well that game (6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8K) but it clearly wasn't enough. Despite his 5.1 ERA for the season, he comes into this game with a very good 1.26 WHIP. Breaking that down, he has allowed only 75 hits and 36 walks in 88 IP. His weakness is that he has given up 15 HR this year, which is to be expected with a GB-FB ratio of 90-162. My angle here is the pitcher vs. batter stats for each pitcher. Mariners are 0.265 (39 for 147) against but with Ichiro at "only" (for him) 0.292 and Figgins at 0.200 and Lopez at 0.188. Those guys are the table setters and the #5 hitter.
Felix Hernandez is coming off of a Gavin Floyd-esque streak of great starts but he faces a Yankees team that has seen him plenty with Tex, Cano, Jeter, Granderson and Swisher all having around 20 or so (or more) at bats against him. Interestingly, it is Texeiria who has had the most success with 3 HR in 39 AB. I mention Texeiria because he is finally showing signs of heating up, after an extended cold streak. We all know that he stinks in April and May, but this has gone into July. If he gets things going, the Yankees will actually be under-priced, in my opinion.
Is the Run Line call nuts and/or totally greedy against King Felix at home? Maybe not on the first but yes on the second. Yankees, obviously, have the best record in baseball, and they face what has to be a deflated team after having Cliff Lee traded and then losing 6-1 by being forced to start Pauley (who deserves a lot of credit for his gutsy performance). With respect to the Run Line, I counted and of the Yankees 54 wins this season, only 7 have come on a 1-run margin, or around just 1 in 8. So that's all. It could be close, but I think that this could be another solid win and my eyes are getting big at the +200 payout for the risk of laying down the runs.
The numbers with Lackey and Morrow in this one points over -9- (even when they were with the Angels, Mariners respectively)....only the Jeff Kellog appears neutral to the situation
The numbers with Lackey and Morrow in this one points over -9- (even when they were with the Angels, Mariners respectively)....only the Jeff Kellog appears neutral to the situation
===== CINCINNATI (Wood) @ PHILADELPHIA
(Halladay) PICK: RUN LINE PHILLIES -1.5 -115 Tough no decision for Halladay and tough 1-0 RL loss to us.
BOSTON
(Lackey) @ TORONTO (Morrow) PICK: UNDER 9
ATLANTA (Hudson) @ METS (Pelfrey) PICK: UNDER
7.5 PICK: BRAVES -115
KANSAS
CITY (Bannister) @ WHITE SOX (Floyd) PICK: RUN
LINE WHITE SOX -1.5 +115 Still white hot.
YANKEES (Vazquez) @ SEATTLE (Hernandez) PICK: RUN
LINE YANKEES -1.5 +200
JOBA CHAMBERLAIN. To be fair, this was shaping up to my second 1-0 RL loss tonight (and third this week) but this guy definitely cost me one last chance in the 9th.
===== CINCINNATI (Wood) @ PHILADELPHIA
(Halladay) PICK: RUN LINE PHILLIES -1.5 -115 Tough no decision for Halladay and tough 1-0 RL loss to us.
BOSTON
(Lackey) @ TORONTO (Morrow) PICK: UNDER 9
ATLANTA (Hudson) @ METS (Pelfrey) PICK: UNDER
7.5 PICK: BRAVES -115
KANSAS
CITY (Bannister) @ WHITE SOX (Floyd) PICK: RUN
LINE WHITE SOX -1.5 +115 Still white hot.
YANKEES (Vazquez) @ SEATTLE (Hernandez) PICK: RUN
LINE YANKEES -1.5 +200
JOBA CHAMBERLAIN. To be fair, this was shaping up to my second 1-0 RL loss tonight (and third this week) but this guy definitely cost me one last chance in the 9th.
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