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If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.
MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI
MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI
MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units
7.13.2013, 0-3, -15 Units, -100% ROI
YTD – 154-168-30, +32.19 Units, +2.02% ROI
5 & 9 Innings – ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays
All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted
Today’s comment: For better or worse, I’m back. The vacation is going great and I have Internet access, which means my critical stats are up to date and I am good to go on Friday, Still unsure about the balance of the weekend but we shall see. Disappointing first half (actually 58%) but hope springs eternal and nothing has happened so disastrous it should cause me to back off.
Marlins F5 +135 (Turner / Lohse)
Turner continues to turn in solid numbers and the Marlins are not the joke the joke the public continues to wafer against, even when Fernandez or Turner takes the ball and changes their probability dramatically. Lohse is a competitor for sure, but neither he nor the Brewers offense cover the edge the Marlins have in Turner. There is no 59.5% probability margin in favor of the Brewers covering a -147 line.
Giants F5 -125 (Kennedy / Gaudin)
One of the beauties of baseball is that the public bets it’s perceptions more than the reality of the situation. The reality is that Kennedy is about to fall off the dge of the earth and Gaudin is having a finer season than folks expected. Another reality is that the Diamondbacks were not hitting right handed pitching at all headed into the break, with only 2 wins in the ir last 7 five inning efforts. The Giants have played better recently, with 5 in their last 7, but since their season to date performance has been disappointing the public is willing to abandon them and keep the line down under the Mendoza line. I make the line Giants -157 is this particular matchup and see no reason why -117 is not playable. Just for the fun of it here is a little trend analysis. Dbacks are 8-1 in Kennedy’s last 9 starts versus the Giants. Great, but the last was a loss and shouldn’t that negate the prior 8 and create an 0-1 streak? Only one win and quality start appear this year, on April 24th, and he got his fanny kicked by the Giants 5 days later. All else is past history. Judging by recent performance that trend is probably irrelevant.
BOL