If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.
MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI
MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI
MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units
6.17.2013, 0-1-1, -5 Units, -100 ROI
YTD – 136-142-27, +54.69 Units, +3.96% ROI
5 & 9 Innings – ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays
All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted
Today’s comment: A tip of the cap to anyone who played the Astros F5 yesterday as they completed the 4 game sweep in 5 innings. Sympathy to 9 inning players, especially those that jumped the bandwagon late and took poor odds before they took their loss. But; every cloud has a silver lining and the good news is that bettors that took that 9 inning hit will now once again hate the Astros and under value them in the right spots. I wonder how many can tell you today the Astros are now 10-2-1 their last 13 versus lefty in the 5 inning game and have established an oera of 5.1. The Brewers will not be throwing any lefties at the Astros so that program will have to take a few days off, but the opportunity will return. Our friend (sometimes jackass) JEG53 will tell you that every year I spot some horrible team that just beats the crap out of lefties but the public never notices, because only 20% of their games are versus lefties. That is an angle, not a trend, if you were wondering. The 10-2-1 and 5 straight are trends. That’s enough of Baseball Handicapping 101 for today, let’s play something.
NO early plays today; BUT, I may have a large card later, 4 or 5 plays. BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.
MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI
MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI
MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units
6.17.2013, 0-1-1, -5 Units, -100 ROI
YTD – 136-142-27, +54.69 Units, +3.96% ROI
5 & 9 Innings – ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays
All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted
Today’s comment: A tip of the cap to anyone who played the Astros F5 yesterday as they completed the 4 game sweep in 5 innings. Sympathy to 9 inning players, especially those that jumped the bandwagon late and took poor odds before they took their loss. But; every cloud has a silver lining and the good news is that bettors that took that 9 inning hit will now once again hate the Astros and under value them in the right spots. I wonder how many can tell you today the Astros are now 10-2-1 their last 13 versus lefty in the 5 inning game and have established an oera of 5.1. The Brewers will not be throwing any lefties at the Astros so that program will have to take a few days off, but the opportunity will return. Our friend (sometimes jackass) JEG53 will tell you that every year I spot some horrible team that just beats the crap out of lefties but the public never notices, because only 20% of their games are versus lefties. That is an angle, not a trend, if you were wondering. The 10-2-1 and 5 straight are trends. That’s enough of Baseball Handicapping 101 for today, let’s play something.
NO early plays today; BUT, I may have a large card later, 4 or 5 plays. BOL
THX everyone. The viewers that care make it worth the effort, but that just applies to the posting. Don't over do it because all the statistical and handicapping I would have to do for myself anyway.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
THX everyone. The viewers that care make it worth the effort, but that just applies to the posting. Don't over do it because all the statistical and handicapping I would have to do for myself anyway.
Might take a look into that stat you informed me about. Granted, I had a feeling that I might be back on Houston tonight after fading them last night. BOL
Might take a look into that stat you informed me about. Granted, I had a feeling that I might be back on Houston tonight after fading them last night. BOL
OK, I’m crazy, but the Rockies did not let ME down yesterday, only 9 inning Rockies backers, so those that had the almighty Blue Jays are coming back for a second piece of pie. Fine with me, since they are willing to pay a premium price for it and are not making the connection from one game to the next that I am. De La Rosa and Francis are both lefties, correct? De La Rosa tossed a no-no through 5 last night and exited the game after 7 with 1 hit and no runs surrendered. Had the Rockies not failed to score with men on first and third and no outs in the second we would have cashed the ticket instead of taking the push and could have watched the board for Josh Johnson bashers.
Rays F5, +135(Odorizzi / Doubront) IF THE RED SOX WIN GAME #1
As I type we are in the rain delay so I can not be positive this game will even be played to night, but if it is we will have a nice opportunity to cash a ticket. This must be my time of the season for backing lefty killers but if the Astros think they have an exclusive franchise in that department they better think again. The Rays are 8-3-4 versus the last 15 they have seen and established a 39.1 rating to go with an oera of 6.1. Doubront has had his share of success so far but nothing to make me think he is about to become a stud duck. Let’s hope they get that first game completed in time to play the second and (no ill will to Rays backers) that the BoSox stomp the Rays, creating exactly the situation we want.
A’s F5, +155(Parker / Darvish)
Rangers at home with Darvish coming off his best season and career performance yet has the folks willing to throw a ton of money at them. This line shows no respect for either Parker or the A’s and says that bettors are willing to forgive the Rangers for all their recent lousy performances. I am not surprised, as on any given night 63% of bettors are willing to lavish their hard earned money on the Rangers anyway. I list them as third behind the Cardinals and Braves as the most popular team to bet on and that spells trouble. Inflated lines, beyond true probability. If you are going to look for teams to fade, they have to be very popular teams, because that is where the inaccurate, inflated lines occur.
Brewers F5, -105(Figaro / Lyles)
The action on this game is textbook proof that line makers are truly professional people and touts and Covers posters that shout “Vegas Mistake” or something similar are either ignorant or stupid, possibly both. The line opened low and dropped even further because so many bettors think they are going to get on the Astros hot streak. So, on any given night about 38% of the players are willing to back the Astros, but now everyone has become a genius so close to 50% of the players are jumping on the bandwagon. Follow me so far? Of course you do. The more ignorant Covers viewers don’t read this far (just gimme the pick baby, I don’t have time to phukn read). The problem of course is that the Astros have had almost all their success versus lefty starters. Versus righty? They still SUCK. 2-8-5 their last 15 with an oera of 2.6. You might think “yeah, well Key, the Rewers suck too” but the Brewers had yesterday off to get their heads together and are 7-3 last 7 versus righty with an oera of 3.7 over the last 15 and 5.19 the last 7.
BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
OK, I’m crazy, but the Rockies did not let ME down yesterday, only 9 inning Rockies backers, so those that had the almighty Blue Jays are coming back for a second piece of pie. Fine with me, since they are willing to pay a premium price for it and are not making the connection from one game to the next that I am. De La Rosa and Francis are both lefties, correct? De La Rosa tossed a no-no through 5 last night and exited the game after 7 with 1 hit and no runs surrendered. Had the Rockies not failed to score with men on first and third and no outs in the second we would have cashed the ticket instead of taking the push and could have watched the board for Josh Johnson bashers.
Rays F5, +135(Odorizzi / Doubront) IF THE RED SOX WIN GAME #1
As I type we are in the rain delay so I can not be positive this game will even be played to night, but if it is we will have a nice opportunity to cash a ticket. This must be my time of the season for backing lefty killers but if the Astros think they have an exclusive franchise in that department they better think again. The Rays are 8-3-4 versus the last 15 they have seen and established a 39.1 rating to go with an oera of 6.1. Doubront has had his share of success so far but nothing to make me think he is about to become a stud duck. Let’s hope they get that first game completed in time to play the second and (no ill will to Rays backers) that the BoSox stomp the Rays, creating exactly the situation we want.
A’s F5, +155(Parker / Darvish)
Rangers at home with Darvish coming off his best season and career performance yet has the folks willing to throw a ton of money at them. This line shows no respect for either Parker or the A’s and says that bettors are willing to forgive the Rangers for all their recent lousy performances. I am not surprised, as on any given night 63% of bettors are willing to lavish their hard earned money on the Rangers anyway. I list them as third behind the Cardinals and Braves as the most popular team to bet on and that spells trouble. Inflated lines, beyond true probability. If you are going to look for teams to fade, they have to be very popular teams, because that is where the inaccurate, inflated lines occur.
Brewers F5, -105(Figaro / Lyles)
The action on this game is textbook proof that line makers are truly professional people and touts and Covers posters that shout “Vegas Mistake” or something similar are either ignorant or stupid, possibly both. The line opened low and dropped even further because so many bettors think they are going to get on the Astros hot streak. So, on any given night about 38% of the players are willing to back the Astros, but now everyone has become a genius so close to 50% of the players are jumping on the bandwagon. Follow me so far? Of course you do. The more ignorant Covers viewers don’t read this far (just gimme the pick baby, I don’t have time to phukn read). The problem of course is that the Astros have had almost all their success versus lefty starters. Versus righty? They still SUCK. 2-8-5 their last 15 with an oera of 2.6. You might think “yeah, well Key, the Rewers suck too” but the Brewers had yesterday off to get their heads together and are 7-3 last 7 versus righty with an oera of 3.7 over the last 15 and 5.19 the last 7.
Hey Key - Knowing Houston's BP sucks as much as their ability to hit Righties, I assume a FG bet on Mil isn't a bad move either correct? Thank you and GL
Hey Key - Knowing Houston's BP sucks as much as their ability to hit Righties, I assume a FG bet on Mil isn't a bad move either correct? Thank you and GL
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