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If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.
MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI
MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI
MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units
6.07.2013, 1-1, -.652 Units, -6.52% ROI
YTD – 127-130-25, +61.51 Units, +4.83% ROI
5 & 9 Innings – ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays
All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted
Today’s comment: The Perfect Storm. It doesn’t get any better
The PERFECT Storm
Cardinals F5, 7 Units (+???) FG, 7 Units (+137) (Lyons / Latos)
Sorry there is no 5 inning line yet but I will take the opener and plug it in later. This one needs to get in early, I can't believe the sharps will pass it up.
With all due respect to Mat Latos, and I have a great deal, this does not look like it is going to be the best day of his life. Thanks to his well deserved reputation, the respect due the Reds, and home field advantage, the linemakers have to put the line out where it is. That is business, and I respect the fact that they have to do what they have to do. What the public (and more than a few sharps) will miss when doing their handicap is that the dynamic of this game change radically from yesterday’s and the Cardinals should actually a bigger favorite than they were with Wainright. Latos offers up the same superior right handed pitching I told you the Cardinals would hit yesterday and they did. Mike Leake scored a 66.4 in my system versus his usual stellar rating of 70.8. Today Mat Latos comes in at 70.3, close to Leake and indicative of a similar performance, which should be just fine, as the Cardinals are still a vastly superior right handed hitting club, putting more distance between themselves and the other contenders yesterday. The huge change in dynamic comes from the Reds facing an apparently respectable lefty. Tyler Lyons is doing everything right so far and we know from experience the Cardinals do not make many personnel mistakes. If they have faith in him, so do I. And why shouldn’t I? The Reds do not offer the same offensive probability versus lefty as they do righty. Their offensive rating drops from 35.8 to 32.1 and their oera drops from 4.7 to 3.1. Good luck with that because the Cardinals versus righty are now 38.8 and 7.1. In an attempt to make a true line, versus a line that can be offered to the public, I make the Cardinals -133 with a 57% chance of winning outright. Time to lay my big brass gonads and a significant chunk of my bankroll on the line.
BOL