$214 Giants, +150, 9 Inning Run Line -1.5, (Vogelsong/Kendrick)
BOL
Angels: The BoSox have a little more offensive potential tonight versus the right handed Richards, but not enough to overcome the 76 cents of line value Richards carries in versus Porcello. That part of the game is a mis-match and we are talking about a guy still flying under the radar with bettors even though he was screwed out of an All Star berth last year. Richards has compiled a 25-7 quality start record since the spring of 2014 so there is a 78% chance he gives you a quality start, and that is all you can ask. Porcello limps in at 19-20, so there is only a 49% chance he gives you a quality start.
Giants: There is not enough HFA in the world to put the Rockies, with Kendrick on the hill, in a class with the Giants, not even with their own personal stiff, Vogelsong, on the hill. Kendrick is the worst $5.5 million any team ever spent on a player and I said so last winter when one Rockies idiot wanted to sign him and another was foolish enough to write the check. Vogelsong does not hold the quality start edge Richards does, at only 45% since spring 2014, but he is 3-3 this year and far more playable than Kendrick, who is 3-5 this year and 9-23 last, for only a 30% chance of a quality start. Versus the Giants, averaging 5.4 earned offensive runs per 9 their last 15 versus righty? Get real. No hangover effect here, the Giants keep right on rollin’ baby.
BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
$214 Giants, +150, 9 Inning Run Line -1.5, (Vogelsong/Kendrick)
BOL
Angels: The BoSox have a little more offensive potential tonight versus the right handed Richards, but not enough to overcome the 76 cents of line value Richards carries in versus Porcello. That part of the game is a mis-match and we are talking about a guy still flying under the radar with bettors even though he was screwed out of an All Star berth last year. Richards has compiled a 25-7 quality start record since the spring of 2014 so there is a 78% chance he gives you a quality start, and that is all you can ask. Porcello limps in at 19-20, so there is only a 49% chance he gives you a quality start.
Giants: There is not enough HFA in the world to put the Rockies, with Kendrick on the hill, in a class with the Giants, not even with their own personal stiff, Vogelsong, on the hill. Kendrick is the worst $5.5 million any team ever spent on a player and I said so last winter when one Rockies idiot wanted to sign him and another was foolish enough to write the check. Vogelsong does not hold the quality start edge Richards does, at only 45% since spring 2014, but he is 3-3 this year and far more playable than Kendrick, who is 3-5 this year and 9-23 last, for only a 30% chance of a quality start. Versus the Giants, averaging 5.4 earned offensive runs per 9 their last 15 versus righty? Get real. No hangover effect here, the Giants keep right on rollin’ baby.
$214 Giants, +150, 9 Inning Run Line -1.5, (Vogelsong/Kendrick)
BOL
Angels: The BoSox have a little more offensive potential tonight versus the right handed Richards, but not enough to overcome the 76 cents of line value Richards carries in versus Porcello. That part of the game is a mis-match and we are talking about a guy still flying under the radar with bettors even though he was screwed out of an All Star berth last year. Richards has compiled a 25-7 quality start record since the spring of 2014 so there is a 78% chance he gives you a quality start, and that is all you can ask. Porcello limps in at 19-20, so there is only a 49% chance he gives you a quality start.
Giants: There is not enough HFA in the world to put the Rockies, with Kendrick on the hill, in a class with the Giants, not even with their own personal stiff, Vogelsong, on the hill. Kendrick is the worst $5.5 million any team ever spent on a player and I said so last winter when one Rockies idiot wanted to sign him and another was foolish enough to write the check. Vogelsong does not hold the quality start edge Richards does, at only 45% since spring 2014, but he is 3-3 this year and far more playable than Kendrick, who is 3-5 this year and 9-23 last, for only a 30% chance of a quality start. Versus the Giants, averaging 5.4 earned offensive runs per 9 their last 15 versus righty? Get real. No hangover effect here, the Giants keep right on rollin’ baby.
BOL
Key, have you ever played the same team for a stretch of games (aka "riding a team"). Do you think this is a profitable strategy? Betting the Nationals, for example, would have made huge profit over the past month.
$214 Giants, +150, 9 Inning Run Line -1.5, (Vogelsong/Kendrick)
BOL
Angels: The BoSox have a little more offensive potential tonight versus the right handed Richards, but not enough to overcome the 76 cents of line value Richards carries in versus Porcello. That part of the game is a mis-match and we are talking about a guy still flying under the radar with bettors even though he was screwed out of an All Star berth last year. Richards has compiled a 25-7 quality start record since the spring of 2014 so there is a 78% chance he gives you a quality start, and that is all you can ask. Porcello limps in at 19-20, so there is only a 49% chance he gives you a quality start.
Giants: There is not enough HFA in the world to put the Rockies, with Kendrick on the hill, in a class with the Giants, not even with their own personal stiff, Vogelsong, on the hill. Kendrick is the worst $5.5 million any team ever spent on a player and I said so last winter when one Rockies idiot wanted to sign him and another was foolish enough to write the check. Vogelsong does not hold the quality start edge Richards does, at only 45% since spring 2014, but he is 3-3 this year and far more playable than Kendrick, who is 3-5 this year and 9-23 last, for only a 30% chance of a quality start. Versus the Giants, averaging 5.4 earned offensive runs per 9 their last 15 versus righty? Get real. No hangover effect here, the Giants keep right on rollin’ baby.
BOL
Key, have you ever played the same team for a stretch of games (aka "riding a team"). Do you think this is a profitable strategy? Betting the Nationals, for example, would have made huge profit over the past month.
BOL, would be wary of Vogelsong on the road though, he pitches well at home in AT&T Park because he can take advantage of the inherent edge to the pitcher. But he is a flyball pitcher that has very poor numbers at Coors Field.
BOL, would be wary of Vogelsong on the road though, he pitches well at home in AT&T Park because he can take advantage of the inherent edge to the pitcher. But he is a flyball pitcher that has very poor numbers at Coors Field.
Key, have you ever played the same team for a stretch of games (aka "riding a team"). Do you think this is a profitable strategy? Betting the Nationals, for example, would have made huge profit over the past month.
A few times but overall that is a hard strategy to employ. The problem is that the power rating of any given team varies greatly almost every single day, depending on who is taking the ball and who is doing the same for the opposition. A team certainly can look good AFTER a streak or a hot run but was not necessarily a good play every day during the run. That is particularly true of high profile, public bettor favorites, who, because of that are most often overpriced anyway. If you do catch me doing something like that it is more to be with a team the public has abandoned and will be drawing very good odds, although when true probability and risk-reward are considered they should not be. Milwaukee, Phillie and Texas are examples of that this week. The Angels are today. Note that I took those teams versus Detroit, Colorado, Boston and Boston again. Those are public bettor favorites that lay distorted odds. That also explains why few in the Covers Forum actually lay real money on my picks. What the public wants to be assured of by a handicapper is their favorite high flying team with lots of "stars" on the payroll is going to crush the small market team that does not get all the attention from the media or highlight time on Sports Center. That is the culture we live in and contrarian thought or method is not welcome. go figure.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
Key, have you ever played the same team for a stretch of games (aka "riding a team"). Do you think this is a profitable strategy? Betting the Nationals, for example, would have made huge profit over the past month.
A few times but overall that is a hard strategy to employ. The problem is that the power rating of any given team varies greatly almost every single day, depending on who is taking the ball and who is doing the same for the opposition. A team certainly can look good AFTER a streak or a hot run but was not necessarily a good play every day during the run. That is particularly true of high profile, public bettor favorites, who, because of that are most often overpriced anyway. If you do catch me doing something like that it is more to be with a team the public has abandoned and will be drawing very good odds, although when true probability and risk-reward are considered they should not be. Milwaukee, Phillie and Texas are examples of that this week. The Angels are today. Note that I took those teams versus Detroit, Colorado, Boston and Boston again. Those are public bettor favorites that lay distorted odds. That also explains why few in the Covers Forum actually lay real money on my picks. What the public wants to be assured of by a handicapper is their favorite high flying team with lots of "stars" on the payroll is going to crush the small market team that does not get all the attention from the media or highlight time on Sports Center. That is the culture we live in and contrarian thought or method is not welcome. go figure.
BOL today....I told my friend to stay away from boston and bet texass yesterday. He didn't listen to me bc of exactly what you said above. Then he texted me "f#$k" lol with my simple response being.."hahaha told you" Love your capping and the picks today, was on the giants and didn't wanna look at angels since I mistakenly told my friend to put them down and not the over yesterday and lost out on a $200 4 teamer lol anyways thanks for the hard work.
BOL today....I told my friend to stay away from boston and bet texass yesterday. He didn't listen to me bc of exactly what you said above. Then he texted me "f#$k" lol with my simple response being.."hahaha told you" Love your capping and the picks today, was on the giants and didn't wanna look at angels since I mistakenly told my friend to put them down and not the over yesterday and lost out on a $200 4 teamer lol anyways thanks for the hard work.
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