***Posted YTD: 67-43-1 +$2088***
Yesterday's Results: (2-2 -$240)
-- Broke even but once again lost my 2-unit play on Verlander. He has been sloppy lately and the Tigers couldn't bring enough run support to get the victory, even though Miggy homered off Mariano again, they gave it up in the bottom of the 9th. Tough loss, but I should've realized the line was inflated. Porcello was -120 (Loss) vs. Nova, and Sanchez was -145 (Win) vs. Hughes. Nova is much better than Hughes and Sanchez is much better than Porcello, so I should've stayed away (or bet small) on Porcello, while making a 2 to 3-unit bet on Sanchez. When it came to the Verlander game, the line was inflated to -160 vs. Petitte (who is better than Hughes, and not lately, but is perhaps better than Nova). The line inflation was due to the pounding the Tigers put on them the night before. I should've stayed away from Verlander at -160 vs. Pettite or bet 1-unit AT THE ABSOLUTE MOST. Huge mistake by me, therefore resulting in a 2-2 day loss. Also, should've definitely stayed away from the Pirates after the Rockies looked like a much better team in the 1st two match-ups, why chase? They had the game in control before losing it (once again) but no excuses. Losses cannot be tolerated, they will happen but I really need to sharpen my bet if I want to profit anywhere near what I did last year. And this last stretch of 50 or so games is usually my best, so let's get it. On to the next one.
Monday's (8.12) Card...
CIN (Latos) 280/200
-- Mat Latos has been extremely consistent this season (11-3, 3.21 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 145/46 K/BB ratio) and I look for him to continue his stellar pitching vs. a struggling Cubs team that he's had success against so far this year (2-0, 3.50 ERA) and in his 8 career starts (4-2, 3.28 ERA). Latos has been red-hot since the All-Star break, with a 1.73 ERA in four starts. The Reds will be happily welcoming back OF Ryan Ludwig to their line-up at a crucial time, and no Reds batter has had more success at Wrigley Field (.370 avg. with 34 RBIs over last 32 visits to Chicago) than him. Whether he is a 100% healthy or not, I still believe his bat in the line-up, and presence on the field will definitely give a much needed boost to Cincinnati. On the opposing mound is Travis Wood, who has also pitched solid this season (7-8, 3.04 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 104/50 K/BB ratio) and while his ERA and WHIP are slightly better than Latos, his ability to strikeout batters is far inferior (104 < 145) and I know with Ludwig coming back, and Soriano shipped off to the Yankees that the Reds bats definitely have an advantage over the Cubs. While Wood has been solid this year, he has struggled in his last 2 home starts, both losses: (3.1 IP, 7H, 5ER in a 2-6 Loss to LAD) and (5.2 IP, 10H, 3ER in a 6-10 Loss to STL). And most importantly, he has not fared well at all in his 5 career starts against the Reds (0-3, 4.65 ERA) as 5 batters in the Cincy line-up are hitting over .400 average against him (NOT including Choo, Votto, Phillips and Bruce - their 4 best hitters this year). The Cubs are 0-5 in Wood's last 5 starts vs. CIN and I look for that trend to continue today. Welcome back Ludwig, let's go Reds!
*CIN is 38-16 in last 54 games vs. team with losing record.
*CIN is 38-16 in Latos' last 54 starts overall.
*CIN is 18-6 in Latos' last 24 starts vs. NL Central.
*CIN is 15-1 in Latos' last 16 starts with 5 days rest.
*CHC is 17-35 in last 52 home games vs. team with winning record.
*CHC is 3-8 in last 11 starts vs. right-handed starter.
*CHC is 7-23 in Wood's last 30 starts as an underdog.
*CHC is 3-14 in Wood's last 17 after allowing 5+ runs in previous.
*CIN is 22-8 in last 30 meetings in Chicago.
*CHC is 0-5 in Wood's last 5 starts against CIN.