__________________________________________________________________________ *Leans are in italics and underlined. Plays are listed in Orange and I try to "flat bet" as defined by Vanzack a couple of years ago.
My capping style this time of year is based purely on the main projection systems by individual player. As the year goes on, I'll make some tweaks based on current form for certain players and hopefully add some other factors as time permits.
I've done this long enough to recognize that there are no sure things and this is a grind. Attempt to get a small edge in each game and as your sample size increases (over the season) hopefully you'll see a positive return.
Split a couple of big dogs last night to pick up a few quarters. Here's what I've got going for the early games:
Indians (+150) @ Athletics risking 0.80 to win 1.00
Not even close on the mound but I keep seeing value with the Indians and what I believe is an underrated offense. Part of me really wants to stay away as I believe Anderson is an up and coming ace and may be better than his projected numbers. Ath the same time, I guess you don't find good sized underdogs without some major hurdles to overcome.
I tried to play this same matchup yesterday -- here's what I wrote then:
Most of the projection systems really have a thing for Nolasco (3.7 proj. FIP) and I think it has lead to me playing him each time this season. Hasn't panned out too badly (2-1) but Nolasco hasn't looked that great. Hopefully he straightens it out today.
I'm heading out and braving the rain for the rest of the morning. Its opening season for trout at our local lakes and the weather isn't exactly cooperating. I should be back in time to find some plays for tonight.
__________________________________________________________________________ *Leans are in italics and underlined. Plays are listed in Orange and I try to "flat bet" as defined by Vanzack a couple of years ago.
My capping style this time of year is based purely on the main projection systems by individual player. As the year goes on, I'll make some tweaks based on current form for certain players and hopefully add some other factors as time permits.
I've done this long enough to recognize that there are no sure things and this is a grind. Attempt to get a small edge in each game and as your sample size increases (over the season) hopefully you'll see a positive return.
Split a couple of big dogs last night to pick up a few quarters. Here's what I've got going for the early games:
Indians (+150) @ Athletics risking 0.80 to win 1.00
Not even close on the mound but I keep seeing value with the Indians and what I believe is an underrated offense. Part of me really wants to stay away as I believe Anderson is an up and coming ace and may be better than his projected numbers. Ath the same time, I guess you don't find good sized underdogs without some major hurdles to overcome.
I tried to play this same matchup yesterday -- here's what I wrote then:
Most of the projection systems really have a thing for Nolasco (3.7 proj. FIP) and I think it has lead to me playing him each time this season. Hasn't panned out too badly (2-1) but Nolasco hasn't looked that great. Hopefully he straightens it out today.
I'm heading out and braving the rain for the rest of the morning. Its opening season for trout at our local lakes and the weather isn't exactly cooperating. I should be back in time to find some plays for tonight.
Louis - Carmona has held his own thus far but Anderson is tough. Hopefully the Indians can capitalize if Anderson makes a mistake.
Cubs @ Brewers (-102)risking 1.02 to win 0.99
I've got this game fairly close as Lilly is definitely better than Davis. But the Brewers get the nod on offense. I do like the fact that the Brewers mashed LH's last year (807 OPS) compared to the Cubs (.720) and it doesn't hurt that this is Lilly's first start off the DL.
Cards (-145) @ Giants risking 1.19 to win 0.82
Took a loss last night with Carpenter but I see such a big difference in offense. Kennedy might be solid but Wainwright's not so bad himself.
Blue Jays @ Rays (-144)risking 1.18 to win 0.82
The way I cap games seems to turn up more underdogs than favorites but apparently that does not apply today.
Twins (-104) @ Royals
Twins are one of my highest rated offensive squads. Hochevar's ERA looks nice (2.89) but I have him projected to be worse than Blackburn and his K/BB rate (11/9) hints that its not sustainable.
Louis - Carmona has held his own thus far but Anderson is tough. Hopefully the Indians can capitalize if Anderson makes a mistake.
Cubs @ Brewers (-102)risking 1.02 to win 0.99
I've got this game fairly close as Lilly is definitely better than Davis. But the Brewers get the nod on offense. I do like the fact that the Brewers mashed LH's last year (807 OPS) compared to the Cubs (.720) and it doesn't hurt that this is Lilly's first start off the DL.
Cards (-145) @ Giants risking 1.19 to win 0.82
Took a loss last night with Carpenter but I see such a big difference in offense. Kennedy might be solid but Wainwright's not so bad himself.
Blue Jays @ Rays (-144)risking 1.18 to win 0.82
The way I cap games seems to turn up more underdogs than favorites but apparently that does not apply today.
Twins (-104) @ Royals
Twins are one of my highest rated offensive squads. Hochevar's ERA looks nice (2.89) but I have him projected to be worse than Blackburn and his K/BB rate (11/9) hints that its not sustainable.
weebs - Cards would be a nice way to ring in Saturday night.
Depressed - Thanks for the correction -- should have been Garcia. I swear these games and pitchers are becoming a blur. Another reason I rely more heavily on statistics than intuition.
Trey - Thanks, hopefully a good chunk will pan out.
weebs - Cards would be a nice way to ring in Saturday night.
Depressed - Thanks for the correction -- should have been Garcia. I swear these games and pitchers are becoming a blur. Another reason I rely more heavily on statistics than intuition.
Trey - Thanks, hopefully a good chunk will pan out.
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