MLB Daily 2024 / ($1.00 is my unit, 100 units per play)
Record 4-5-2, -139.51, RoR -15.5%
5/09
F5 Phillies -195, Suarez/Rogers
What’s going on? Since when does Key lay enormous juice? Well, quite a bit is going on. The first five weeks of this season starting pitchers were posting unreal numbers. In four days this week the bats have woken up (and starters sucked). Starters were posting era’s around 4.10 on average with half the league under 4.00. In four days this week they have posted an era of 4.61 and are surrendering 5.4 runs per game in the first five innings.
Five inning baseball is a mano-a-mano game. Two chuckers go at it head-to-head, and if you have the better guy, that performs as he should, he needs only a small offensive edge to be playable. If he has an off day, and the other guy doesn’t, you are going to lose. The better the chucker the less important home field, weather, or umpires matter. Managers and bullpens are of little to no concern. Irrelevant.
So, when trying to break out and post a winner, I am going with the best possible mano-a-mano matchup and trusting Suarez to be one guy this week that doesn’t fall off the face of the earth. Hopefully he didn’t hit the strip clubs and after hour joints last night. If Suarez and Rogers perform to expectations we should cash the ticket.
Bettors that believe in “add the juice to favorites” can do as they wish, but I am a flat unit bettor that will accept a 51.28 unit profit on my normal 100 wager. You cannot control profit, only risk can be controlled.
BOL
Some really good starters that have failed this week include: Darvish, A. Wood, Stripling, Berrios, Burnes, Soroka, Verlander, Soriano, Pivetta, Kirby, Gilbert, Stroman and Sonny Gray. A crowd any team would be proud to have. I didn’t have them all (thank God), but that group is indicative of what has happened in just four days in MLB so far this week. YIKES!