8/07/17
105-116-7, RoR –6.30% (vs 11/10 odds 49.1%)
Nationals -190, FG, O’Grady / Scherzer
Padres +115, FG, Chacin / Adleman
BOL
Nationals: Scherzer left his last start after one inning due to neck stiffness. That is not likely to be an ongoing problem and if it were the Nationals would not risk the best pitcher in MLB in any way, shape or form. They don’t need to. They are not fighting for a playoff berth, that is a given. HFA will not effect that as they can see the writing on the wall, the Dodgers will probably have HFA all the way through (provided they are not eliminated). Scherzer would be a home favorite over anyone in the game, and rightfully so. O’Grady is no problem, just a walk in the park. True line? Scherzer -341; but the books can’t put that up, they would get a huge imbalance on the dog.
Padres: Seven weeks to go and we start getting into the teams everybody hates, because they are not as bad as bettors think and overplay their opponents, no matter the opponent’s status. Some folks even think that when bad teams meet bad teams home field will carry the day. Well, first, the Reds with Adleman on the hill should not be laying juice; home, road, or anywhere else. Today I have Adleman at 55.4 and unplayable because he is below average in rating, is 8-11 for quality starts, 9-10 for head-to-head wins and the Reds are 7-12 when he takes the ball. That is a favorite? Chacin offers us a 69.0 rating, 14-8 for quality starts and is 13-9 head-to-head with his opposite number. The offenses are quite comparable, but remember the Padres are swinging at much lesser chucker than are the Reds. What may also be surprising is that in the starter versus starter category the Padres are 33-39-9 while the Reds stumble in at 30-47-7. False favorite. Take the bonus $.