Almost
back to ground 0 after a horrible week. It must be bounce back time but that
does not mean it is time to lay the heavy juice with big favorites, looking for
wins instead of profit. Mathematical facts like odds and probability are
constants, they do not change. Luck, streaks, bad hops, shoddy bullpen
performance, etc., etc., are the variables that do change, but eventually
everything comes back to what it shouldbe, and what should happen, happens.
The
Jays are probably not going to finish 45-117 and set a record for losses. They
are also not likely to win only 22% of their road games. Too many factors would
have to conspire to make those things happen. In the meantime, all the losing
to date has conspired to make them what? Undervalued, and that is a word we
are always looking for.
Liriano,
with only one hiccup, has been solid for the Jays. He also enjoys the advantage
tonight of being a lefty on the left coast, where the Marine Layer and
prevailing winds usually work to a lefties advantage.
Chavez,
as is his history, has been up, down, up, and there is no reason why the fourth
game in the sequence should not be down. In the first 5 innings, which is basically
starter versus starter, the Jays are only 1-11-1, not a pretty picture, but
also a stat that simply cannot continue. The Angels do not look so hot themselves
at only 1-3 versus lefty, and I have higher probability numbers on the Jays
versus righty than the Angels versus lefty.
BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
Almost
back to ground 0 after a horrible week. It must be bounce back time but that
does not mean it is time to lay the heavy juice with big favorites, looking for
wins instead of profit. Mathematical facts like odds and probability are
constants, they do not change. Luck, streaks, bad hops, shoddy bullpen
performance, etc., etc., are the variables that do change, but eventually
everything comes back to what it shouldbe, and what should happen, happens.
The
Jays are probably not going to finish 45-117 and set a record for losses. They
are also not likely to win only 22% of their road games. Too many factors would
have to conspire to make those things happen. In the meantime, all the losing
to date has conspired to make them what? Undervalued, and that is a word we
are always looking for.
Liriano,
with only one hiccup, has been solid for the Jays. He also enjoys the advantage
tonight of being a lefty on the left coast, where the Marine Layer and
prevailing winds usually work to a lefties advantage.
Chavez,
as is his history, has been up, down, up, and there is no reason why the fourth
game in the sequence should not be down. In the first 5 innings, which is basically
starter versus starter, the Jays are only 1-11-1, not a pretty picture, but
also a stat that simply cannot continue. The Angels do not look so hot themselves
at only 1-3 versus lefty, and I have higher probability numbers on the Jays
versus righty than the Angels versus lefty.
I thought I saw Nolasco listed last night, was there a change? I was probably tired, maybe delusional.
Can't argue with the play. Chavez is the model of inconsistency. I remember reading about his contract, it's very incentive laden. At 33 he's gonna have to earn that money the hard way.
I thought I saw Nolasco listed last night, was there a change? I was probably tired, maybe delusional.
Can't argue with the play. Chavez is the model of inconsistency. I remember reading about his contract, it's very incentive laden. At 33 he's gonna have to earn that money the hard way.
I thought I saw Nolasco listed last night, was there a change? I was probably tired, maybe delusional.
Can't argue with the play. Chavez is the model of inconsistency. I remember reading about his contract, it's very incentive laden. At 33 he's gonna have to earn that money the hard way.
Best of Luck.
Or drunk, maybe both
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
I thought I saw Nolasco listed last night, was there a change? I was probably tired, maybe delusional.
Can't argue with the play. Chavez is the model of inconsistency. I remember reading about his contract, it's very incentive laden. At 33 he's gonna have to earn that money the hard way.
Do you ever bet the total. I know you are not big on past results or trends but both of these teams have recently exhibited some power and this game looks like a good over opportunity based on these pitchers past results.
Liriano has struggled against the Angels going 2-6 with a 6.20 ERA in 10 starts and a relief appearance.
Chavez seeks his first career win over the Blue Jays after going 0-4 with an 8.53 ERA in four appearances against them (two starts).
Do you ever bet the total. I know you are not big on past results or trends but both of these teams have recently exhibited some power and this game looks like a good over opportunity based on these pitchers past results.
Liriano has struggled against the Angels going 2-6 with a 6.20 ERA in 10 starts and a relief appearance.
Chavez seeks his first career win over the Blue Jays after going 0-4 with an 8.53 ERA in four appearances against them (two starts).
Do you ever bet the total. I know you are not big on past results or trends but both of these teams have recently exhibited some power and this game looks like a good over opportunity based on these pitchers past results.
Liriano has struggled against the Angels going 2-6 with a 6.20 ERA in 10 starts and a relief appearance.
Chavez seeks his first career win over the Blue Jays after going 0-4 with an 8.53 ERA in four appearances against them (two starts).
BOL today!
Overs in Anaheim are always iffy, as that is the lowest scoring park in MLB. I don't consider the prior trends or performances of either starter versus the other team of a great deal of value, teams change, as do pitchers. I am more into current performance levels of both.starters and both offenses.
Just for the fun of speculation, if I were going to play an over today it would be Hughes/Perez and my choice for an under would be Vargas/Gonzalez.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
Do you ever bet the total. I know you are not big on past results or trends but both of these teams have recently exhibited some power and this game looks like a good over opportunity based on these pitchers past results.
Liriano has struggled against the Angels going 2-6 with a 6.20 ERA in 10 starts and a relief appearance.
Chavez seeks his first career win over the Blue Jays after going 0-4 with an 8.53 ERA in four appearances against them (two starts).
BOL today!
Overs in Anaheim are always iffy, as that is the lowest scoring park in MLB. I don't consider the prior trends or performances of either starter versus the other team of a great deal of value, teams change, as do pitchers. I am more into current performance levels of both.starters and both offenses.
Just for the fun of speculation, if I were going to play an over today it would be Hughes/Perez and my choice for an under would be Vargas/Gonzalez.
I am of the same oinion with the jays, they are better than their record and will be a value bet for a while! The key is to start betting them as they swing upward! Is that during this series? Only time will tell. I also like the looks of the SD bet! I like to bet on big dogs, well +150 usually when the total is set low, usually I look for +150 and a total of 8. But I'm willing to take a rip at +140 and total 9! Have you ever tracked any data in this area?
I am of the same oinion with the jays, they are better than their record and will be a value bet for a while! The key is to start betting them as they swing upward! Is that during this series? Only time will tell. I also like the looks of the SD bet! I like to bet on big dogs, well +150 usually when the total is set low, usually I look for +150 and a total of 8. But I'm willing to take a rip at +140 and total 9! Have you ever tracked any data in this area?
I am of the same oinion with the jays, they are better than their record and will be a value bet for a while! The key is to start betting them as they swing upward! Is that during this series? Only time will tell. I also like the looks of the SD bet! I like to bet on big dogs, well +150 usually when the total is set low, usually I look for +150 and a total of 8. But I'm willing to take a rip at +140 and total 9! Have you ever tracked any data in this area?
Actually dogs with low totals performs poorly as a general trend. The record for dogs of +140 or greater and totals of less than 9 is .352 winning percentage with a -6% ROI compared to a 0.2% ROI if playing against them. This is going back to 200 (over 6,000 dogs worth of data).
I am of the same oinion with the jays, they are better than their record and will be a value bet for a while! The key is to start betting them as they swing upward! Is that during this series? Only time will tell. I also like the looks of the SD bet! I like to bet on big dogs, well +150 usually when the total is set low, usually I look for +150 and a total of 8. But I'm willing to take a rip at +140 and total 9! Have you ever tracked any data in this area?
Actually dogs with low totals performs poorly as a general trend. The record for dogs of +140 or greater and totals of less than 9 is .352 winning percentage with a -6% ROI compared to a 0.2% ROI if playing against them. This is going back to 200 (over 6,000 dogs worth of data).
Forgot to add. Wind blowing out at 9 mph, both Pitchers have ERA's this year over 5 and the total is set at only 7.5.
Delete the 135.00 horrible start at Tampa and Liriano's era is 1.50. To be fair let Chavez off the hook for his worst start and he is a flat 4.00, a flat 5 if it is left in there. Raw stats are not always good indicators and in Liriano's case if that 135.00 era at Tampa is left in there it will distort his true probability for a long time this season. I prefer to trust my probable performance ratings.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
Forgot to add. Wind blowing out at 9 mph, both Pitchers have ERA's this year over 5 and the total is set at only 7.5.
Delete the 135.00 horrible start at Tampa and Liriano's era is 1.50. To be fair let Chavez off the hook for his worst start and he is a flat 4.00, a flat 5 if it is left in there. Raw stats are not always good indicators and in Liriano's case if that 135.00 era at Tampa is left in there it will distort his true probability for a long time this season. I prefer to trust my probable performance ratings.
I noticed the first 5 innings stat you gave; however, the play is for full game correct?
The play is always for what it is stated. The first 5 facts I track are helpful to me in determining not only whether I want to play 5 or 9, but also in determining whether offenses are beating starters or bullpens. Several other things effect the 5/9 choice, but I am always careful to state it correctly.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
I noticed the first 5 innings stat you gave; however, the play is for full game correct?
The play is always for what it is stated. The first 5 facts I track are helpful to me in determining not only whether I want to play 5 or 9, but also in determining whether offenses are beating starters or bullpens. Several other things effect the 5/9 choice, but I am always careful to state it correctly.
The play is always for what it is stated. The first 5 facts I track are helpful to me in determining not only whether I want to play 5 or 9, but also in determining whether offenses are beating starters or bullpens. Several other things effect the 5/9 choice, but I am always careful to state it correctly.
The play is always for what it is stated. The first 5 facts I track are helpful to me in determining not only whether I want to play 5 or 9, but also in determining whether offenses are beating starters or bullpens. Several other things effect the 5/9 choice, but I am always careful to state it correctly.
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