Mets
are playing very well right now with Reyes and Beltran back in the
lineup, while the Cards are 1-4 in their last 5. We have a solid
pitching advantage on the mound here as Niese is a much better starting
pitcher than Westbrook, according to the advanced stats. Looking into
it a little further, Westbrook has a 4.11 xFIP on the road compared with
3.85 at home. His road K/BB ratio is a measly 1.32 (in the National
League!!!) and his LOB% is 76.5%, way higher than the norm (71%). In
addition, Wesbrook's xFIP against lefties is 4.29 compared to 3.69
versus right-handed batters. His BABIP against lefties is .265 this
season, which indicates a lot of 'luck' involved in that .251 BA versus
lefties compared to .339 versus righties. With a K/BB ratio of only
1.17 against left-handed batters I see him regressing very quickly,
against left-handed lineups. Check out Mets' lineup last night:
1. Jose Reyes (S) SS 2. Justin Turner (R) 2B 3. Carlos Beltran (S) RF 4. Daniel Murphy (L) 3B 5. Angel Pagan (S) CF 6. Jason Bay (R) LF 7. Lucas Duda (L) 1B 8. Josh Thole (L) C 9. R.A. Dickey (R) P
Heck,
you can replace Dickey with Niese (career .144 AVE / .226 OBP), and
that's another left-handed bat in there. That's 7 out of 9 hitters that
will bat left-handed (assuming similar lineup). I really like the Mets
in this early game as they have a big advantage in starting pitching
here. Bullpen, hitting, and fielding are very similar for each team,
thus I'll gladly grab a home team at these short odds in this one.
Good luck
A couple more games that I'm liking. Those plays will be posted later in the day.
_________________ '10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130 '10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600 '10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800 '10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400 '10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400 '10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200 '10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400 '10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100 '10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400 '10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175 '10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575
----------------------------------- TOTAL: 415-277 @ 60% for +$107,580
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned"
Mets
are playing very well right now with Reyes and Beltran back in the
lineup, while the Cards are 1-4 in their last 5. We have a solid
pitching advantage on the mound here as Niese is a much better starting
pitcher than Westbrook, according to the advanced stats. Looking into
it a little further, Westbrook has a 4.11 xFIP on the road compared with
3.85 at home. His road K/BB ratio is a measly 1.32 (in the National
League!!!) and his LOB% is 76.5%, way higher than the norm (71%). In
addition, Wesbrook's xFIP against lefties is 4.29 compared to 3.69
versus right-handed batters. His BABIP against lefties is .265 this
season, which indicates a lot of 'luck' involved in that .251 BA versus
lefties compared to .339 versus righties. With a K/BB ratio of only
1.17 against left-handed batters I see him regressing very quickly,
against left-handed lineups. Check out Mets' lineup last night:
1. Jose Reyes (S) SS 2. Justin Turner (R) 2B 3. Carlos Beltran (S) RF 4. Daniel Murphy (L) 3B 5. Angel Pagan (S) CF 6. Jason Bay (R) LF 7. Lucas Duda (L) 1B 8. Josh Thole (L) C 9. R.A. Dickey (R) P
Heck,
you can replace Dickey with Niese (career .144 AVE / .226 OBP), and
that's another left-handed bat in there. That's 7 out of 9 hitters that
will bat left-handed (assuming similar lineup). I really like the Mets
in this early game as they have a big advantage in starting pitching
here. Bullpen, hitting, and fielding are very similar for each team,
thus I'll gladly grab a home team at these short odds in this one.
Good luck
A couple more games that I'm liking. Those plays will be posted later in the day.
_________________ '10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130 '10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600 '10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800 '10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400 '10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400 '10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200 '10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400 '10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100 '10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400 '10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175 '10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575
----------------------------------- TOTAL: 415-277 @ 60% for +$107,580
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned"
St Louis Cardinals 50-47 (52%) @ New York Mets 49-48 (51%)
J.
Westbrook, starting for St Louis Cardinals, has a FIP of 4.57 (#159 in
MLB), xFIP of 3.99 (#104 in MLB), and tERA of 4.59 (#131 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .317, LOB% of 68%, and E-F of 0.69. He has a K/BB ratio of
1.43, with a WHIP of 1.58, and opponent BA of .293. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 16%, GB%: 60%, FB%: 23% for a 2.59 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 15%.
J. Niese, starting for New York Mets, has a
FIP of 3.31 (#47 in MLB), xFIP of 3.31 (#28 in MLB), and tERA of 3.64
(#45 in MLB), with a BABIP of .307, LOB% of 71%, and E-F of 0.27. He has
a K/BB ratio of 2.72, with a WHIP of 1.32, and opponent BA of .256. His
batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 19%, GB%: 52%, FB%: 29% for a 1.82
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 9%.
St Louis Cardinals have the #23
bullpen, #4 offense, and are rated #27 in fielding. They have a road
record of 25-26 (49%), ranked #15 in MLB and have Lost 3 in a row.
New
York Mets have the #20 bullpen, #7 offense, and are rated #22 in
fielding. They have a home record of 22-25 (47%), ranked #24 in MLB and
have Won 2 in a row.
Cardinals are 1-4 their last 5 games. Pujols is expected to be rested today.
San Diego Padres 43-55 (44%) @ Florida Marlins 47-51 (48%)
D.
Moseley, starting for San Diego Padres, has a FIP of 4 (#114 in MLB),
xFIP of 4.1 (#123 in MLB), and tERA of 3.95 (#72 in MLB), with a BABIP
of .276, LOB% of 70%, and E-F of -0.64. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.68,
with a WHIP of 1.3, and opponent BA of .254. His batted-ball peripherals
are: LD%: 18%, GB%: 51%, FB%: 31% for a 1.65 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB
of 8%.
J. Vazquez, starting for Florida Marlins, has a FIP of
4.37 (#140 in MLB), xFIP of 4.29 (#150 in MLB), and tERA of 4.64 (#135
in MLB), with a BABIP of .304, LOB% of 63%, and E-F of 0.77. He has a
K/BB ratio of 2.24, with a WHIP of 1.44, and opponent BA of .274. His
batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 33%, FB%: 48% for a 0.69
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 9%.
San Diego Padres have the #2
bullpen, #29 offense, and are rated #13 in fielding. They have a road
record of 23-25 (48%), ranked #16 in MLB and have Won 2 in a row.
Florida
Marlins have the #11 bullpen, #20 offense, and are rated #14 in
fielding. They have a home record of 21-28 (43%), ranked #27 in MLB and
have Lost 2 in a row.
Atlanta Braves 57-41 (58%) @ Colorado Rockies 47-51 (48%)
T.
Hanson, starting for Atlanta Braves, has a FIP of 3.11 (#31 in MLB),
xFIP of 3.02 (#13 in MLB), and tERA of 3.45 (#32 in MLB), with a BABIP
of .249, LOB% of 79%, and E-F of -0.38. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.16,
with a WHIP of 1.06, and opponent BA of .195. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 19%, GB%: 43%, FB%: 38% for a 1.14 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 10%.
J. Chacin, starting for Colorado Rockies, has
a FIP of 4.23 (#130 in MLB), xFIP of 3.48 (#44 in MLB), and tERA of 4.4
(#119 in MLB), with a BABIP of .23, LOB% of 78%, and E-F of -0.86. He
has a K/BB ratio of 2.08, with a WHIP of 1.16, and opponent BA of .203.
His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 13%, GB%: 58%, FB%: 29% for a 1.98
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 16%.
Atlanta Braves have the #1
bullpen, #22 offense, and are rated #29 in fielding. They have a road
record of 27-22 (55%), ranked #5 in MLB and have Lost 2 in a row.
Colorado
Rockies have the #17 bullpen, #10 offense, and are rated #12 in
fielding. They have a home record of 26-25 (51%), ranked #18 in MLB and
have Won 2 in a row.
Odds: ATL +103 (49%) COL -109 (52%) O/U = 8.5
Lean: ATL + OVER =======================================
Z.
Greinke, starting for Milwaukee Brewers, has a FIP of 2.87 (#18 in
MLB), xFIP of 2.13 (#1 in MLB), and tERA of 3.5 (#39 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .343, LOB% of 56%, and E-F of 2.18. He has a K/BB ratio of
5.94, with a WHIP of 1.24, and opponent BA of .252. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 23%, GB%: 44%, FB%: 34% for a 1.29 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 15%.
I. Kennedy, starting for Arizona
Diamondbacks, has a FIP of 3.62 (#67 in MLB), xFIP of 3.54 (#49 in MLB),
and tERA of 4.37 (#115 in MLB), with a BABIP of .269, LOB% of 77%, and
E-F of -0.22. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.05, with a WHIP of 1.15, and
opponent BA of .23. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 22%, GB%: 41%,
FB%: 38% for a 1.08 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 10%.
Milwaukee
Brewers have the #9 bullpen, #7 offense, and are rated #16 in fielding.
They have a road record of 20-32 (38%), ranked #24 in MLB and have Won 2
in a row.
Arizona Diamondbacks have the #13 bullpen, #11
offense, and are rated #3 in fielding. They have a home record of 26-22
(54%), ranked #12 in MLB and have Lost 2 in a row.
St Louis Cardinals 50-47 (52%) @ New York Mets 49-48 (51%)
J.
Westbrook, starting for St Louis Cardinals, has a FIP of 4.57 (#159 in
MLB), xFIP of 3.99 (#104 in MLB), and tERA of 4.59 (#131 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .317, LOB% of 68%, and E-F of 0.69. He has a K/BB ratio of
1.43, with a WHIP of 1.58, and opponent BA of .293. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 16%, GB%: 60%, FB%: 23% for a 2.59 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 15%.
J. Niese, starting for New York Mets, has a
FIP of 3.31 (#47 in MLB), xFIP of 3.31 (#28 in MLB), and tERA of 3.64
(#45 in MLB), with a BABIP of .307, LOB% of 71%, and E-F of 0.27. He has
a K/BB ratio of 2.72, with a WHIP of 1.32, and opponent BA of .256. His
batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 19%, GB%: 52%, FB%: 29% for a 1.82
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 9%.
St Louis Cardinals have the #23
bullpen, #4 offense, and are rated #27 in fielding. They have a road
record of 25-26 (49%), ranked #15 in MLB and have Lost 3 in a row.
New
York Mets have the #20 bullpen, #7 offense, and are rated #22 in
fielding. They have a home record of 22-25 (47%), ranked #24 in MLB and
have Won 2 in a row.
Cardinals are 1-4 their last 5 games. Pujols is expected to be rested today.
San Diego Padres 43-55 (44%) @ Florida Marlins 47-51 (48%)
D.
Moseley, starting for San Diego Padres, has a FIP of 4 (#114 in MLB),
xFIP of 4.1 (#123 in MLB), and tERA of 3.95 (#72 in MLB), with a BABIP
of .276, LOB% of 70%, and E-F of -0.64. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.68,
with a WHIP of 1.3, and opponent BA of .254. His batted-ball peripherals
are: LD%: 18%, GB%: 51%, FB%: 31% for a 1.65 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB
of 8%.
J. Vazquez, starting for Florida Marlins, has a FIP of
4.37 (#140 in MLB), xFIP of 4.29 (#150 in MLB), and tERA of 4.64 (#135
in MLB), with a BABIP of .304, LOB% of 63%, and E-F of 0.77. He has a
K/BB ratio of 2.24, with a WHIP of 1.44, and opponent BA of .274. His
batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 33%, FB%: 48% for a 0.69
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 9%.
San Diego Padres have the #2
bullpen, #29 offense, and are rated #13 in fielding. They have a road
record of 23-25 (48%), ranked #16 in MLB and have Won 2 in a row.
Florida
Marlins have the #11 bullpen, #20 offense, and are rated #14 in
fielding. They have a home record of 21-28 (43%), ranked #27 in MLB and
have Lost 2 in a row.
Atlanta Braves 57-41 (58%) @ Colorado Rockies 47-51 (48%)
T.
Hanson, starting for Atlanta Braves, has a FIP of 3.11 (#31 in MLB),
xFIP of 3.02 (#13 in MLB), and tERA of 3.45 (#32 in MLB), with a BABIP
of .249, LOB% of 79%, and E-F of -0.38. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.16,
with a WHIP of 1.06, and opponent BA of .195. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 19%, GB%: 43%, FB%: 38% for a 1.14 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 10%.
J. Chacin, starting for Colorado Rockies, has
a FIP of 4.23 (#130 in MLB), xFIP of 3.48 (#44 in MLB), and tERA of 4.4
(#119 in MLB), with a BABIP of .23, LOB% of 78%, and E-F of -0.86. He
has a K/BB ratio of 2.08, with a WHIP of 1.16, and opponent BA of .203.
His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 13%, GB%: 58%, FB%: 29% for a 1.98
GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 16%.
Atlanta Braves have the #1
bullpen, #22 offense, and are rated #29 in fielding. They have a road
record of 27-22 (55%), ranked #5 in MLB and have Lost 2 in a row.
Colorado
Rockies have the #17 bullpen, #10 offense, and are rated #12 in
fielding. They have a home record of 26-25 (51%), ranked #18 in MLB and
have Won 2 in a row.
Odds: ATL +103 (49%) COL -109 (52%) O/U = 8.5
Lean: ATL + OVER =======================================
Z.
Greinke, starting for Milwaukee Brewers, has a FIP of 2.87 (#18 in
MLB), xFIP of 2.13 (#1 in MLB), and tERA of 3.5 (#39 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .343, LOB% of 56%, and E-F of 2.18. He has a K/BB ratio of
5.94, with a WHIP of 1.24, and opponent BA of .252. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 23%, GB%: 44%, FB%: 34% for a 1.29 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 15%.
I. Kennedy, starting for Arizona
Diamondbacks, has a FIP of 3.62 (#67 in MLB), xFIP of 3.54 (#49 in MLB),
and tERA of 4.37 (#115 in MLB), with a BABIP of .269, LOB% of 77%, and
E-F of -0.22. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.05, with a WHIP of 1.15, and
opponent BA of .23. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 22%, GB%: 41%,
FB%: 38% for a 1.08 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 10%.
Milwaukee
Brewers have the #9 bullpen, #7 offense, and are rated #16 in fielding.
They have a road record of 20-32 (38%), ranked #24 in MLB and have Won 2
in a row.
Arizona Diamondbacks have the #13 bullpen, #11
offense, and are rated #3 in fielding. They have a home record of 26-22
(54%), ranked #12 in MLB and have Lost 2 in a row.
Seattle Mariners 43-54 (44%) @ Toronto Blue Jays 49-49 (50%)
D.
Fister, starting for Seattle Mariners, has a FIP of 3.16 (#35 in MLB),
xFIP of 3.86 (#85 in MLB), and tERA of 3.47 (#35 in MLB), with a BABIP
of .286, LOB% of 74%, and E-F of 0.02. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.86, with
a WHIP of 1.17, and opponent BA of .25. His batted-ball peripherals
are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 46%, FB%: 34% for a 1.33 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of
4%.
R. Romero, starting for Toronto Blue Jays, has a FIP of 3.87
(#93 in MLB), xFIP of 3.63 (#63 in MLB), and tERA of 3.8 (#59 in MLB),
with a BABIP of .278, LOB% of 78%, and E-F of -0.69. He has a K/BB ratio
of 2.25, with a WHIP of 1.26, and opponent BA of .235. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 15%, GB%: 52%, FB%: 33% for a 1.58 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 11%.
Seattle Mariners have the #12 bullpen, #30
offense, and are rated #17 in fielding. They have a road record of 18-27
(40%), ranked #23 in MLB and have Lost 11 in a row.
Toronto Blue
Jays have the #15 bullpen, #6 offense, and are rated #25 in fielding.
They have a home record of 23-24 (49%), ranked #20 in MLB and have Won 2
in a row.
Seattle is 2-8 in Fister's last 10 starts. Toronto is
3-7 in Romero's last 10 starts. Seattle is 6-19 against lefties this
year and 48-85 over the last couple of seasons.
C.
Wilson, starting for Texas Rangers, has a FIP of 3.15 (#34 in MLB),
xFIP of 3.37 (#31 in MLB), and tERA of 3.79 (#58 in MLB), with a BABIP
of .294, LOB% of 74%, and E-F of -0.04. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.76,
with a WHIP of 1.2, and opponent BA of .236. His batted-ball peripherals
are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 47%, FB%: 33% for a 1.43 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB
of 7%.
J. Weaver, starting for LAA Angels, has a FIP of 2.43 (#3
in MLB), xFIP of 3.54 (#49 in MLB), and tERA of 2.39 (#4 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .245, LOB% of 81%, and E-F of -0.53. He has a K/BB ratio of
3.73, with a WHIP of 0.93, and opponent BA of .195. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 18%, GB%: 34%, FB%: 48% for a 0.7 GB/FB ratio, and
a HR/FB of 3%.
Texas Rangers have the #30 bullpen, #3 offense,
and are rated #7 in fielding. They have a road record of 25-24 (51%),
ranked #12 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.
LAA Angels have the
#18 bullpen, #18 offense, and are rated #1 in fielding. They have a home
record of 27-23 (54%), ranked #14 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.
Nelson
Cruz is doubtful. Angels are 82-49 in day games over the last couple of
seasons (18-14 this year). Rangers' last away game of a 7-game road
trip.
New York Yankees 57-38 (60%) @ Tampa Bay Rays 51-45 (53%)
C.
Sabathia, starting for New York Yankees, has a FIP of 2.48 (#5 in MLB),
xFIP of 3.1 (#16 in MLB), and tERA of 3.21 (#17 in MLB), with a BABIP
of .295, LOB% of 74%, and E-F of 0.15. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.53, with
a WHIP of 1.14, and opponent BA of .233. His batted-ball peripherals
are: LD%: 21%, GB%: 48%, FB%: 31% for a 1.58 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of
4%.
J. Shields, starting for Tampa Bay Rays, has a FIP of 3.17
(#36 in MLB), xFIP of 2.92 (#7 in MLB), and tERA of 3.35 (#26 in MLB),
with a BABIP of .258, LOB% of 80%, and E-F of -0.57. He has a K/BB ratio
of 3.92, with a WHIP of 1, and opponent BA of .209. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 19%, GB%: 46%, FB%: 35% for a 1.31 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 11%.
New York Yankees have the #6 bullpen, #2
offense, and are rated #6 in fielding. They have a road record of 27-19
(59%), ranked #2 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.
Tampa Bay Rays
have the #25 bullpen, #16 offense, and are rated #5 in fielding. They
have a home record of 23-25 (48%), ranked #23 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a
row.
Yankees are 16-5 in CC's starts this year. Sabathis is 9-5
against the Rays with a 3.04 ERA and 1.1 WHIP. Shields is 3-10 against
the Yankees with a 4.47 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.
Odds: NYY -137 (58%) TBR +129 (44%) O/U = 7
Lean: UNDER =======================================
Detroit Tigers 51-46 (53%) @ Minnesota Twins 46-51 (47%)
J.
Verlander, starting for Detroit Tigers, has a FIP of 2.7 (#13 in MLB),
xFIP of 2.96 (#11 in MLB), and tERA of 2.85 (#10 in MLB), with a BABIP
of .238, LOB% of 79%, and E-F of -0.4. He has a K/BB ratio of 4.64, with
a WHIP of 0.9, and opponent BA of .19. His batted-ball peripherals are:
LD%: 18%, GB%: 41%, FB%: 41% for a 0.99 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 7%.
C.
Pavano, starting for Minnesota Twins, has a FIP of 3.97 (#110 in MLB),
xFIP of 4.12 (#131 in MLB), and tERA of 4.15 (#94 in MLB), with a BABIP
of .287, LOB% of 68%, and E-F of 0.11. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.24, with
a WHIP of 1.28, and opponent BA of .272. His batted-ball peripherals
are: LD%: 17%, GB%: 50%, FB%: 33% for a 1.5 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of
8%.
Detroit Tigers have the #27 bullpen, #5 offense, and are
rated #18 in fielding. They have a road record of 22-24 (48%), ranked
#17 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.
Minnesota Twins have the #29
bullpen, #26 offense, and are rated #9 in fielding. They have a home
record of 25-22 (53%), ranked #15 in MLB and have Won 2 in a row.
Minnesota
is 21-14 against divisional opponents this year and 113-66 over the
last couple of seasons. Verlander is 7-7 against Minny with a 3.71 ERA
and 1.3 WHIP. Pavanao is 5-2 against Detroit with a 3.8 ERA and 1.1
WHIP.
Seattle Mariners 43-54 (44%) @ Toronto Blue Jays 49-49 (50%)
D.
Fister, starting for Seattle Mariners, has a FIP of 3.16 (#35 in MLB),
xFIP of 3.86 (#85 in MLB), and tERA of 3.47 (#35 in MLB), with a BABIP
of .286, LOB% of 74%, and E-F of 0.02. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.86, with
a WHIP of 1.17, and opponent BA of .25. His batted-ball peripherals
are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 46%, FB%: 34% for a 1.33 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of
4%.
R. Romero, starting for Toronto Blue Jays, has a FIP of 3.87
(#93 in MLB), xFIP of 3.63 (#63 in MLB), and tERA of 3.8 (#59 in MLB),
with a BABIP of .278, LOB% of 78%, and E-F of -0.69. He has a K/BB ratio
of 2.25, with a WHIP of 1.26, and opponent BA of .235. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 15%, GB%: 52%, FB%: 33% for a 1.58 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 11%.
Seattle Mariners have the #12 bullpen, #30
offense, and are rated #17 in fielding. They have a road record of 18-27
(40%), ranked #23 in MLB and have Lost 11 in a row.
Toronto Blue
Jays have the #15 bullpen, #6 offense, and are rated #25 in fielding.
They have a home record of 23-24 (49%), ranked #20 in MLB and have Won 2
in a row.
Seattle is 2-8 in Fister's last 10 starts. Toronto is
3-7 in Romero's last 10 starts. Seattle is 6-19 against lefties this
year and 48-85 over the last couple of seasons.
C.
Wilson, starting for Texas Rangers, has a FIP of 3.15 (#34 in MLB),
xFIP of 3.37 (#31 in MLB), and tERA of 3.79 (#58 in MLB), with a BABIP
of .294, LOB% of 74%, and E-F of -0.04. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.76,
with a WHIP of 1.2, and opponent BA of .236. His batted-ball peripherals
are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 47%, FB%: 33% for a 1.43 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB
of 7%.
J. Weaver, starting for LAA Angels, has a FIP of 2.43 (#3
in MLB), xFIP of 3.54 (#49 in MLB), and tERA of 2.39 (#4 in MLB), with a
BABIP of .245, LOB% of 81%, and E-F of -0.53. He has a K/BB ratio of
3.73, with a WHIP of 0.93, and opponent BA of .195. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 18%, GB%: 34%, FB%: 48% for a 0.7 GB/FB ratio, and
a HR/FB of 3%.
Texas Rangers have the #30 bullpen, #3 offense,
and are rated #7 in fielding. They have a road record of 25-24 (51%),
ranked #12 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.
LAA Angels have the
#18 bullpen, #18 offense, and are rated #1 in fielding. They have a home
record of 27-23 (54%), ranked #14 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.
Nelson
Cruz is doubtful. Angels are 82-49 in day games over the last couple of
seasons (18-14 this year). Rangers' last away game of a 7-game road
trip.
New York Yankees 57-38 (60%) @ Tampa Bay Rays 51-45 (53%)
C.
Sabathia, starting for New York Yankees, has a FIP of 2.48 (#5 in MLB),
xFIP of 3.1 (#16 in MLB), and tERA of 3.21 (#17 in MLB), with a BABIP
of .295, LOB% of 74%, and E-F of 0.15. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.53, with
a WHIP of 1.14, and opponent BA of .233. His batted-ball peripherals
are: LD%: 21%, GB%: 48%, FB%: 31% for a 1.58 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of
4%.
J. Shields, starting for Tampa Bay Rays, has a FIP of 3.17
(#36 in MLB), xFIP of 2.92 (#7 in MLB), and tERA of 3.35 (#26 in MLB),
with a BABIP of .258, LOB% of 80%, and E-F of -0.57. He has a K/BB ratio
of 3.92, with a WHIP of 1, and opponent BA of .209. His batted-ball
peripherals are: LD%: 19%, GB%: 46%, FB%: 35% for a 1.31 GB/FB ratio,
and a HR/FB of 11%.
New York Yankees have the #6 bullpen, #2
offense, and are rated #6 in fielding. They have a road record of 27-19
(59%), ranked #2 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.
Tampa Bay Rays
have the #25 bullpen, #16 offense, and are rated #5 in fielding. They
have a home record of 23-25 (48%), ranked #23 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a
row.
Yankees are 16-5 in CC's starts this year. Sabathis is 9-5
against the Rays with a 3.04 ERA and 1.1 WHIP. Shields is 3-10 against
the Yankees with a 4.47 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.
Odds: NYY -137 (58%) TBR +129 (44%) O/U = 7
Lean: UNDER =======================================
Detroit Tigers 51-46 (53%) @ Minnesota Twins 46-51 (47%)
J.
Verlander, starting for Detroit Tigers, has a FIP of 2.7 (#13 in MLB),
xFIP of 2.96 (#11 in MLB), and tERA of 2.85 (#10 in MLB), with a BABIP
of .238, LOB% of 79%, and E-F of -0.4. He has a K/BB ratio of 4.64, with
a WHIP of 0.9, and opponent BA of .19. His batted-ball peripherals are:
LD%: 18%, GB%: 41%, FB%: 41% for a 0.99 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 7%.
C.
Pavano, starting for Minnesota Twins, has a FIP of 3.97 (#110 in MLB),
xFIP of 4.12 (#131 in MLB), and tERA of 4.15 (#94 in MLB), with a BABIP
of .287, LOB% of 68%, and E-F of 0.11. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.24, with
a WHIP of 1.28, and opponent BA of .272. His batted-ball peripherals
are: LD%: 17%, GB%: 50%, FB%: 33% for a 1.5 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of
8%.
Detroit Tigers have the #27 bullpen, #5 offense, and are
rated #18 in fielding. They have a road record of 22-24 (48%), ranked
#17 in MLB and have Lost 1 in a row.
Minnesota Twins have the #29
bullpen, #26 offense, and are rated #9 in fielding. They have a home
record of 25-22 (53%), ranked #15 in MLB and have Won 2 in a row.
Minnesota
is 21-14 against divisional opponents this year and 113-66 over the
last couple of seasons. Verlander is 7-7 against Minny with a 3.71 ERA
and 1.3 WHIP. Pavanao is 5-2 against Detroit with a 3.8 ERA and 1.1
WHIP.
No lean on the Yanks... the H2H by both pitchers is definitely telling.
Yeah but laying -140 on the road against a stud pitcher like Shields is not that appealing to me. You have to remember, that Shields allowed ZERO ER's in his last start against the Bombers, on the road! This time he's at home!
No lean on the Yanks... the H2H by both pitchers is definitely telling.
Yeah but laying -140 on the road against a stud pitcher like Shields is not that appealing to me. You have to remember, that Shields allowed ZERO ER's in his last start against the Bombers, on the road! This time he's at home!
what do you think about Under in the Detroit vs MN game? I think the twins will be lucky to score a run. But historically it looks like Verlander isn't the sharpest vs the twins. Do you by chance know how many time Verlander has pitched in the new stadium (Target Field) and what is numbers are there? My guess is that his numbers were slightly inflated due to pitching in the metro dome. But now pitching in a major pitchers park, I am really liking the Under. I like Detroit as well but -160 might be a little too much juice.
what do you think about Under in the Detroit vs MN game? I think the twins will be lucky to score a run. But historically it looks like Verlander isn't the sharpest vs the twins. Do you by chance know how many time Verlander has pitched in the new stadium (Target Field) and what is numbers are there? My guess is that his numbers were slightly inflated due to pitching in the metro dome. But now pitching in a major pitchers park, I am really liking the Under. I like Detroit as well but -160 might be a little too much juice.
what do you think about Under in the Detroit vs MN game? I think the twins will be lucky to score a run. But historically it looks like Verlander isn't the sharpest vs the twins. Do you by chance know how many time Verlander has pitched in the new stadium (Target Field) and what is numbers are there? My guess is that his numbers were slightly inflated due to pitching in the metro dome. But now pitching in a major pitchers park, I am really liking the Under. I like Detroit as well but -160 might be a little too much juice.
Appreciate all your hard work and dedication
No idea what Verlander's stats are in Target Field. You can figure it out by looking at Verlander's #'s over the years in Minny, since Targer Field opened on ESPN.com 'game log'. Let us know what they are, would be interesting to know.
As far as the game, I'm leaning Twinkies in that one now. Seems like very solid value on a home team with a pitcher that has had success against the Tigers in the past. My model has this one at 8.2 total runs. The O/U is at 7.5 so there's a little bit of 'value' on the UNDER I guess but not enough for me to play it.
what do you think about Under in the Detroit vs MN game? I think the twins will be lucky to score a run. But historically it looks like Verlander isn't the sharpest vs the twins. Do you by chance know how many time Verlander has pitched in the new stadium (Target Field) and what is numbers are there? My guess is that his numbers were slightly inflated due to pitching in the metro dome. But now pitching in a major pitchers park, I am really liking the Under. I like Detroit as well but -160 might be a little too much juice.
Appreciate all your hard work and dedication
No idea what Verlander's stats are in Target Field. You can figure it out by looking at Verlander's #'s over the years in Minny, since Targer Field opened on ESPN.com 'game log'. Let us know what they are, would be interesting to know.
As far as the game, I'm leaning Twinkies in that one now. Seems like very solid value on a home team with a pitcher that has had success against the Tigers in the past. My model has this one at 8.2 total runs. The O/U is at 7.5 so there's a little bit of 'value' on the UNDER I guess but not enough for me to play it.
I pulled the trigger on that Mets play. Thanks for the help on the stats today, I used your page as a reference link in my write-up. Saved me some good time digging into the books. Lets get that cash this afternoon!
I pulled the trigger on that Mets play. Thanks for the help on the stats today, I used your page as a reference link in my write-up. Saved me some good time digging into the books. Lets get that cash this afternoon!
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