A massive hole I have myself in now. Really two 3 game series chases have doomed me. Really looking at numbers to see how I can prevent this disaster.
Sure I know its after the fact. But I plan to stay the course. But down 24 units is unacceptable. Taking this on the chin, nose, and both eyes.
Considering doing a reverse chase, as the numbers give me a high first game win %. I know it does not indicate it, but they are there.
Thinking about hitting high on first game and then instead of chasing the loss plus one unit, lowering the amount the 2nd game and 3rd if needed to limit total loss applied to just game 1.
A massive hole I have myself in now. Really two 3 game series chases have doomed me. Really looking at numbers to see how I can prevent this disaster.
Sure I know its after the fact. But I plan to stay the course. But down 24 units is unacceptable. Taking this on the chin, nose, and both eyes.
Considering doing a reverse chase, as the numbers give me a high first game win %. I know it does not indicate it, but they are there.
Thinking about hitting high on first game and then instead of chasing the loss plus one unit, lowering the amount the 2nd game and 3rd if needed to limit total loss applied to just game 1.
OK after a great deal of statistical analysis I have now developed the best course of action to recover from this huge deficit that I am in now.
I could go with a high risk strategy that would yield about 7% ROI but has no leeway in terms of expected loss. My expected loss range is between 3.9% - 5%. That is to say I expect my overall chase losses to fall within that range. That includes the 2 and 3 game chase options.
If I were to choose the highest return of 7%, then I could not sustain no more than that 5% threshold, anything over that would result in overall loss. (After all this is gambling) Remember this is only an estimate.
However, If I hold a bit back and take a more moderate approach and only shoot for a 4% ROI then I have considerable leeway on the loss range , closer to the 3.9% end of it. which will give me a bit more leeway about 2 standard deviations from the norm.
Basically saying , that if I were to exceed my expected loss threshold of a few more units than I estimated, I could at worst break even. Which in any ones opinion is a hell of a lot better than taking a loss.
So in conclusion, I will take the more moderate approach and only do a 2 game chase. With a twist. (As much as my gambling nature does not approve of this , the numbers do not lie)
Game 1 = Two units. $200
Game 2 = Game 1 losses plus 4 units $400
No Game 3.
This approach is aggressive on the monetary side but with less exposure. If all things work as planned, I will be out of this hole in 6-8 weeks. Sooner I hope , just being conservative.
My records going forward will be reset. I have not abandoned these losses nor the record. I own them. I just will keep records from this new betting strategy so I can compare to my estimates. Hence, why I will refer to this thread in the new record thread.(Daily thread).
OK after a great deal of statistical analysis I have now developed the best course of action to recover from this huge deficit that I am in now.
I could go with a high risk strategy that would yield about 7% ROI but has no leeway in terms of expected loss. My expected loss range is between 3.9% - 5%. That is to say I expect my overall chase losses to fall within that range. That includes the 2 and 3 game chase options.
If I were to choose the highest return of 7%, then I could not sustain no more than that 5% threshold, anything over that would result in overall loss. (After all this is gambling) Remember this is only an estimate.
However, If I hold a bit back and take a more moderate approach and only shoot for a 4% ROI then I have considerable leeway on the loss range , closer to the 3.9% end of it. which will give me a bit more leeway about 2 standard deviations from the norm.
Basically saying , that if I were to exceed my expected loss threshold of a few more units than I estimated, I could at worst break even. Which in any ones opinion is a hell of a lot better than taking a loss.
So in conclusion, I will take the more moderate approach and only do a 2 game chase. With a twist. (As much as my gambling nature does not approve of this , the numbers do not lie)
Game 1 = Two units. $200
Game 2 = Game 1 losses plus 4 units $400
No Game 3.
This approach is aggressive on the monetary side but with less exposure. If all things work as planned, I will be out of this hole in 6-8 weeks. Sooner I hope , just being conservative.
My records going forward will be reset. I have not abandoned these losses nor the record. I own them. I just will keep records from this new betting strategy so I can compare to my estimates. Hence, why I will refer to this thread in the new record thread.(Daily thread).
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.