Leans:
Rashad - haven't been impressed with Davis' wrestling at all since entering the Octagon. We all know what to expect from Rashad at this point. He is easy to predict and is willing to lnp if it will get him the win. From a betting standpoint he is the next closest thing to sure money.
Sonnen - Bisping could always triangle him but Sonnen, though sporting an abysmal record due to his lack of jits, has only been caught by some of the best bjj practitioners out there, barring Griffin and Silva. It also looks like Sonnen has finally started to train his ground game some, as he has worked with Ceasar Gracie Jiu Jitsu recently. So basically we have a guaranteeing win locked up here, assuming Sonnen does his triangle defense hmwk. I'll take it!
Maia - The new kid Weidman is good but check his fights. He's only decent standing up and frequently goes to the ground to bail himself out of tricky situations. Unfortunately for Weidman the ground is exactly where he doesn't want to be in this match up. Maia is no stand up God but he has been in there with much more dangerous men on the feet. His WTFKO loss to Marquardt was a once in a life time thing as well. Essentially Maia, despite, possessing no stand up ability whatsoever, decided to throw a flying knee against a much more experienced foe and one with knock out power to boot. I don't see that situation replicating itself. To win Weidman will have to avoid the ground the entire fight whilst also out striking Maia, whose stand up is much improved and who frequently trains with JDS. Also in his last loss to Munoz, I could see that going either way were it not for the North American rule set. Of course Weidman is a wrestler as well but he is no where near as strong as Munoz and nowhere near as versed in jits on the ground. His wrestling credentials are also lower than Munoz's as well. This leads me to believe that if it does hit the ground Maia will work Weidman. I'm pretty confident in Maia in this one but I won't be playing him in a parlay.
Dunham - Lentz is a lnper, which as already explained is good for your wallet; however, for the most part most of his lnp wins come against non wrestlers. Dunham has faced practically nothing but wrestlers since entering the Octagon and yet still sports a much higher TDD% and TD completion rate. That means this fight will be on the feet, where we've seen a pretty decent stand up game from Dunham. Dunham should enjoy an advantage in the jits department as well.
Roop - Cub is straight up garbage and though Roop sports a shit record as well, he has been on the up and up as of late. He is also taller and longer than anyone in the division and this matters when it comes to striking. Roop's weakness being the ground game doesn't really seem relevant at this point either, as he handled himself more than well against Grispi and I'll soon find out how he fared against Hioki, as I am watching this match now.
Roller - Johnson is straight up ass. He gets by on pure athleticism alone coupled with his willingness exploit the North American rule set. Roller is a better wrestler and most likely has more knock out power. To be fair Roller's stand up is pretty garbage but he has been working it and being knocked out by Melvin is nothing to be ashamed of. His loss against Grant was to be expected. Essentially he faced a WW with the same exact skill set as himself. In such a scenario size > skill but that won't be the case with Johnson.
I'll have to watch more fights for the rest of my leans. I am only posting 1 play as of now and this is only because the line on Dunham continues to rise:
1. 3 man parlay of Sonnen, Rashad, and Dunham. 1U to win 1.5!
- I'm broke as a joke; otherwise, I"d go bigger. Scale your units accordingly.