Haven't even started to analyze this game yet..I am going to look into it tonight.. but 1 thing i know off-hand is Kansas State 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as road favorite....ill be back with my pick later
Haven't even started to analyze this game yet..I am going to look into it tonight.. but 1 thing i know off-hand is Kansas State 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as road favorite....ill be back with my pick later
Kan St.'s D is supposed to be better then the sh*t squad that played the end of last year- alot of juco transfers evidently. They should be able to shut down the runs but I see LOU qb having a little more success then he did against Kentucky.
Now Kan St. on O is going to have trouble running against this LOU D, who have been very stout against the run this year giving up less then 2 ypc. The offense will be totally on Freeman in this one(has been in all the other games too being the leading passer, rusher, and scorer).
This Freeman kid is a soph and this is his first start on national TV and on the road. Think that he will be good for a few turnovers maybe. More research but initial lean on LOU.
Loving the under though- thought it would be in the upper 40's not the 50's. These teams D are better then there O.
Something else about the line- opened at 4 and with about 65% of the public on Kan St. the line has dropped to 3.5. Early reverse line movement- makes me want LOU even more.
Kan St.'s D is supposed to be better then the sh*t squad that played the end of last year- alot of juco transfers evidently. They should be able to shut down the runs but I see LOU qb having a little more success then he did against Kentucky.
Now Kan St. on O is going to have trouble running against this LOU D, who have been very stout against the run this year giving up less then 2 ypc. The offense will be totally on Freeman in this one(has been in all the other games too being the leading passer, rusher, and scorer).
This Freeman kid is a soph and this is his first start on national TV and on the road. Think that he will be good for a few turnovers maybe. More research but initial lean on LOU.
Loving the under though- thought it would be in the upper 40's not the 50's. These teams D are better then there O.
Something else about the line- opened at 4 and with about 65% of the public on Kan St. the line has dropped to 3.5. Early reverse line movement- makes me want LOU even more.
MrMannix... my only advice would be to not look at public % numbers... they are phony...
1) those % numbers are not available to anyone except for the sportsbook they apply to... no book (anywhere in the world) gives out accurate public % numbers to... well, the public...
2) the books are fully aware the bettors are using those numbers to try to get an edge against them... you think they are going to voluntarily produce accurate information to the bettors, when that information is used for the sole purpose of beating them?
in a given week, those numbers are most likely accurate... but at least a couple times a year those numbers will be used to suck money from the public like a vaccuum...
MrMannix... my only advice would be to not look at public % numbers... they are phony...
1) those % numbers are not available to anyone except for the sportsbook they apply to... no book (anywhere in the world) gives out accurate public % numbers to... well, the public...
2) the books are fully aware the bettors are using those numbers to try to get an edge against them... you think they are going to voluntarily produce accurate information to the bettors, when that information is used for the sole purpose of beating them?
in a given week, those numbers are most likely accurate... but at least a couple times a year those numbers will be used to suck money from the public like a vaccuum...
Shepherd- I get my public % from a site that gives the % from LV casinos- been using it for awhile. Got it from some good cappers on this site that are no longer here. Don't use it all the time but sometimes gives some good insight when things look fishy with a line or its movement. Was urged to look into it because at first glance this line seems low. GL
Shepherd- I get my public % from a site that gives the % from LV casinos- been using it for awhile. Got it from some good cappers on this site that are no longer here. Don't use it all the time but sometimes gives some good insight when things look fishy with a line or its movement. Was urged to look into it because at first glance this line seems low. GL
After seeing UL first hand, they looked awful. This program is not the same after Petrino and Brohm. K-States defense will shut them down just like UK's defense did. Will make an official pick after the Mon night game.
After seeing UL first hand, they looked awful. This program is not the same after Petrino and Brohm. K-States defense will shut them down just like UK's defense did. Will make an official pick after the Mon night game.
After seeing UL first hand, they looked awful. This program is not the same after Petrino and Brohm. K-States defense will shut them down just like UK's defense did. Will make an official pick after the Mon night game.
Think the UK game was worse case for the Cards that was about as bad as they could play. The thing that worries me the most is K state scoring 114 points and only given up 16. Think the Cards D will face there first real test of a passing attack. The D line and Linebackers are much improved over last year. But thus far the D backs are untested so that is the key to the game if they are improved over last year Cards got a shot. If not they could get torched and this could get ugly. One thing Cards got going is when they did beat K state in 2006 at K state Hunter started in place of a hurt Brohm at QB. This will be a no play for me because I will be at the game only thing worse then watching your team lose is losing $$$$ while watching them lose. Go Cards
After seeing UL first hand, they looked awful. This program is not the same after Petrino and Brohm. K-States defense will shut them down just like UK's defense did. Will make an official pick after the Mon night game.
Think the UK game was worse case for the Cards that was about as bad as they could play. The thing that worries me the most is K state scoring 114 points and only given up 16. Think the Cards D will face there first real test of a passing attack. The D line and Linebackers are much improved over last year. But thus far the D backs are untested so that is the key to the game if they are improved over last year Cards got a shot. If not they could get torched and this could get ugly. One thing Cards got going is when they did beat K state in 2006 at K state Hunter started in place of a hurt Brohm at QB. This will be a no play for me because I will be at the game only thing worse then watching your team lose is losing $$$$ while watching them lose. Go Cards
As far as I can see, West Virginia, Rutgers, & Louisville are descending programs. They're not even in rebuilding mode yet, so looked for them to lose more games this year.
As far as I can see, West Virginia, Rutgers, & Louisville are descending programs. They're not even in rebuilding mode yet, so looked for them to lose more games this year.
it's just my personal opinion... basically, that information is a tool that is used for handicapping... and it is made available to any Harry who takes a trip to Vegas for a weekend... to borrow someone else's phrase: there is no advantage to knowing what everyone else knows... and since that information is being provided by the books in the first place...
you know... you do the math...
i get a better feel just by reading these threads, watching the line movement, seeing where it opens, and most importantly... knowing how "people" think...
it's just my personal opinion... basically, that information is a tool that is used for handicapping... and it is made available to any Harry who takes a trip to Vegas for a weekend... to borrow someone else's phrase: there is no advantage to knowing what everyone else knows... and since that information is being provided by the books in the first place...
you know... you do the math...
i get a better feel just by reading these threads, watching the line movement, seeing where it opens, and most importantly... knowing how "people" think...
Didn't K-State and Freeman go on the road last year and beat the shit out of Texas??? I like KSU in this game, if KSU doesn't win the game it will go under, I don't think Louisville can hang in a high scoring game.
Didn't K-State and Freeman go on the road last year and beat the shit out of Texas??? I like KSU in this game, if KSU doesn't win the game it will go under, I don't think Louisville can hang in a high scoring game.
MrMannix... my only advice would be to not look at public % numbers... they are phony...
1) those % numbers are not available to anyone except for the sportsbook they apply to... no book (anywhere in the world) gives out accurate public % numbers to... well, the public...
2) the books are fully aware the bettors are using those numbers to try to get an edge against them... you think they are going to voluntarily produce accurate information to the bettors, when that information is used for the sole purpose of beating them?
in a given week, those numbers are most likely accurate... but at least a couple times a year those numbers will be used to suck money from the public like a vaccuum...
MrMannix... my only advice would be to not look at public % numbers... they are phony...
1) those % numbers are not available to anyone except for the sportsbook they apply to... no book (anywhere in the world) gives out accurate public % numbers to... well, the public...
2) the books are fully aware the bettors are using those numbers to try to get an edge against them... you think they are going to voluntarily produce accurate information to the bettors, when that information is used for the sole purpose of beating them?
in a given week, those numbers are most likely accurate... but at least a couple times a year those numbers will be used to suck money from the public like a vaccuum...
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