Auburn Tigers @ South Carolina Gamecocks
Play: South Carolina -10 (-110) @5Dimes
Rating: Top Play
When handicapping and assessing a weekends card for the first time I look for a three main things to narrow down the list of games. First is MOTIVATION. What does a team have to play for? Secondly I look for PERCEPTION. What kind of image is this team presenting to the millions of bettors in the world? Third is DECEPTION. Is the line on the game trying to influence action one way or another? Once I assess all three of these factors, I am able to make a PREDICTION. Does the story of the game play out in order to fit the betting line. I have found a game that fits all three of these to a T this weekend. There is going to be a ton of ticket REDEMPTION at the betting window for everyone who follows along.
MOTIVATION-
There is a major motivational factor that will be pushing the Gamecocks to success in this contest. Many people may read into this incorrectly. Logical and blatantly obvious motivational factors in this game include, keeping an undefeated record. Finishing off a three game home stand against a SEC opponent with a win. While both may be correct, they are completely irrelevant and meaningless in this case. Not to mention the fact that those two factors play into about 30 other games this weekend. By reading into this game deeper, there is one motivational factor that reigns stronger then any other one could. That factor is coach Steve Spurrier. After the game last weekend (even though it was a victory, 21-3) coach Spurrier came out and APOLOGIZED to fans for a “putrid offensive performance.” In my means of business, a win is a win. In this case, Spurrier is demanding PERFECTION from his offense. It may seem tough to ask for more when you have Senior quarterback Stephen Garcia, heisman favorite Marcus Lattimore and All American receiver Alshon Jefferey on your depth chart. But the South Carolina offense has been far from perfect in its last two home games. Garcia has become very mistake prone. Lattimore had his worst game of the season (and possibly career). Jeffery set a personal high for drops in a game. To think that all of this happened against woeful Vanderbilt. These three superstars are playing with their backs against the wall and well respected and idolized head coach Steve Spurrier in their face. I absolutely love fact that Spurrier went out and CALLED OUT not just his offense but the LEADERS of this team. This shows me that this team does not plan to take its foot off the gas today. In terms of wins and losses, this team is perfect (4-0) but the man calling the shots wants more. I think this demand of perfection will spark a major flame under this team. That challenge has been set and I have all the confidence in the world the Gamecocks will answer, especially against an extremely soft Auburn Tigers defense today.
PERCEPTION-
The perception angle I am betting on here is in regards to the public view of the Auburn Tigers. I think many people are not looking into this team correctly. This happens many times when a popular team (National Champions) are involved in numerous national TV games that are down to the wire/exciting games. Auburn has played two of the top five most thrilling games this year on ESPN. A furious comeback from a huge hole against Utah State late kicked off the season. Then a last minute win against Mississippi State followed in week two. Many people have already forgotten about the Clemson game where the Tigers were picked apart piece by piece because they appeared dominant against the FAU Owls last weekend. The truth is that the comeback driven, shootout minded teams play in well to the public opinion. This opinion gets even stronger when a team from the SEC is paired with it. I also do not believe that people have bought into the fact that this is a really bad team. This obviously is because of the national championship and dominance the Tigers showed last season. Auburn does not rank in the top 80 in any defensive category, period. They are giving up just shy of 500 yards per game and an awful 7.2 yards per pass attempt. They are giving up an 8th worst 226 yards on the ground per game and an embarrassing