Just about 6 weeks away.. I typically tread lightly in the first couple of weeks with me being more of a situational bettor, but below are some games below I'm keying in on for Week 1..
any others you guys like?
Baylor +7 or more vs. TCU... Bears at home, TCU loses lots of talent on both sides, new QB too.. I know Baylor's D is awful, but RGIII could have monster game.. would love a TD or more and it wouldn't surprise me to see Baylor win outright
Northwestern +6 or more @ BC- Will depend on how good Persa looks in August- if he's not 100%, this Northwestern team just isn't as good.. BC doesn't really blow out decent-good competition and anything more than a FG here might be worth a play..
Purdue -13.5 or less vs. Mid Tenn State- think Purdue will be very undervalued in the first few weeks.. lost so many starts to injury.. Marve is back under center, RB Bolden comes back too.. 9 starters return on D that should improve overall as a unit.. MTSU lost Dasher (good and bad), but only has 3 starters back on D, might be too much to handle
WMU +24 or more vs. UM- Highly doubt this line is more than 21, but just in case it is- UM changing schemes on both sides of the ball, will take some time to get into complete rhythm. WMU returns 13 starters including solid QB and RB and entire DL. Just don't see UM putting up 40+ a game and WMU should be good for 17-21 pts in this one.
Boise PK or more vs. UGA- Not sure all the love for UGA- Murray should be solid, but they looked lost without AJ Green- true frosh Crowell starting at RB- now he could be a stud like Lattimore was, but it could also take some time for him to develop- UGA has depth issues at OL as well..Boise's Rush D real solid and returns all but 1 in the front 7 on D.. I've learned over time if you give Petersen more than 2 weeks to prepare, they aren't losing
Just about 6 weeks away.. I typically tread lightly in the first couple of weeks with me being more of a situational bettor, but below are some games below I'm keying in on for Week 1..
any others you guys like?
Baylor +7 or more vs. TCU... Bears at home, TCU loses lots of talent on both sides, new QB too.. I know Baylor's D is awful, but RGIII could have monster game.. would love a TD or more and it wouldn't surprise me to see Baylor win outright
Northwestern +6 or more @ BC- Will depend on how good Persa looks in August- if he's not 100%, this Northwestern team just isn't as good.. BC doesn't really blow out decent-good competition and anything more than a FG here might be worth a play..
Purdue -13.5 or less vs. Mid Tenn State- think Purdue will be very undervalued in the first few weeks.. lost so many starts to injury.. Marve is back under center, RB Bolden comes back too.. 9 starters return on D that should improve overall as a unit.. MTSU lost Dasher (good and bad), but only has 3 starters back on D, might be too much to handle
WMU +24 or more vs. UM- Highly doubt this line is more than 21, but just in case it is- UM changing schemes on both sides of the ball, will take some time to get into complete rhythm. WMU returns 13 starters including solid QB and RB and entire DL. Just don't see UM putting up 40+ a game and WMU should be good for 17-21 pts in this one.
Boise PK or more vs. UGA- Not sure all the love for UGA- Murray should be solid, but they looked lost without AJ Green- true frosh Crowell starting at RB- now he could be a stud like Lattimore was, but it could also take some time for him to develop- UGA has depth issues at OL as well..Boise's Rush D real solid and returns all but 1 in the front 7 on D.. I've learned over time if you give Petersen more than 2 weeks to prepare, they aren't losing
Baylor lost top 5 tacklers from a defense that was not that good. Sure I like Griffin III, but feel like this team has peaked out last year at 7-6. However, this is the best spot Baylor has been in to pull the upset, I am looking forward to this game to see how TCU reloads.
Phil says, BU is 0-3 vs TCU with avg lose by 24 ppg since the SWC split.
Baylor lost top 5 tacklers from a defense that was not that good. Sure I like Griffin III, but feel like this team has peaked out last year at 7-6. However, this is the best spot Baylor has been in to pull the upset, I am looking forward to this game to see how TCU reloads.
Phil says, BU is 0-3 vs TCU with avg lose by 24 ppg since the SWC split.
like em all but W Mich.....although if goes to 24....maybe not bad
2 things to be wary of here....
WM is a terrible road dog.....last 9 opportunities as DD road dog they are 1-7-1 ATS....(av score 42-17)....with the win @ Iowa in 2007 what most remember.. overall since '07 Cubit is 14-25-2 ATS.....4-10 vs non-conf....and 0-8 ATS 1st 2 lined games of season....they enjoy taking the early season ass whipping.....
Michigan (maybe even more than Texas) just happens to need to whip somebody's ass really bad...> meaning Hoke and staff... > gotta be on fairly short leash...
SO.....I'm gonna guess they will keep some of the things that they did well last year....(DR running).....and not totally start over....I don't think they can risk a slow start....Hoke has in fact said they will mold O to DR's skills and not vice-versa.....
* but sure....if we see them come out in traditional West Coast style O.....they might lose here.....(tried in spring .....not good).....Borges said fall version will look much different.....
best of luck SNF......
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
like em all but W Mich.....although if goes to 24....maybe not bad
2 things to be wary of here....
WM is a terrible road dog.....last 9 opportunities as DD road dog they are 1-7-1 ATS....(av score 42-17)....with the win @ Iowa in 2007 what most remember.. overall since '07 Cubit is 14-25-2 ATS.....4-10 vs non-conf....and 0-8 ATS 1st 2 lined games of season....they enjoy taking the early season ass whipping.....
Michigan (maybe even more than Texas) just happens to need to whip somebody's ass really bad...> meaning Hoke and staff... > gotta be on fairly short leash...
SO.....I'm gonna guess they will keep some of the things that they did well last year....(DR running).....and not totally start over....I don't think they can risk a slow start....Hoke has in fact said they will mold O to DR's skills and not vice-versa.....
* but sure....if we see them come out in traditional West Coast style O.....they might lose here.....(tried in spring .....not good).....Borges said fall version will look much different.....
TCU is going to shock many, very good recruiting classes the past few years. Very good talent both sides of the ball.
Boise State win's by TD, Georgia has very nice athlete's but there not football ready, facing Boise offense week 1 huge problem for bulldogs.
Frogs will likely have 10 or so wins because they have yet ANOTHER really easy schedule....off best season in 75 years or so....lame duck in conference.....heavy losses....Pachall only had 9 attempts LY (huge error)....plus they've been beating the crap outta everybody...45-26-3 ATS run.....32-14-2 in conf play.....(unbelievable)....definitely a team to look to fade early...that 9/10 game @ Air Force will tell us a lot....as might 1st game @ Baylor....although overrated ....no D Bears might get rolled...or might win?.....
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
TCU is going to shock many, very good recruiting classes the past few years. Very good talent both sides of the ball.
Boise State win's by TD, Georgia has very nice athlete's but there not football ready, facing Boise offense week 1 huge problem for bulldogs.
Frogs will likely have 10 or so wins because they have yet ANOTHER really easy schedule....off best season in 75 years or so....lame duck in conference.....heavy losses....Pachall only had 9 attempts LY (huge error)....plus they've been beating the crap outta everybody...45-26-3 ATS run.....32-14-2 in conf play.....(unbelievable)....definitely a team to look to fade early...that 9/10 game @ Air Force will tell us a lot....as might 1st game @ Baylor....although overrated ....no D Bears might get rolled...or might win?.....
Baylor lost top 5 tacklers from a defense that was not that good. Sure I like Griffin III, but feel like this team has peaked out last year at 7-6. However, this is the best spot Baylor has been in to pull the upset, I am looking forward to this game to see how TCU reloads.
Phil says, BU is 0-3 vs TCU with avg lose by 24 ppg since the SWC split.
Good luck
With you on Boise and NW
yea history is on TCU side for sure.. just think TCU takes big step back this year (still wins 9 games with easy schedule), but with new QB, 4 new OL and bunch of new starters on D, Baylor has the talent at the skill positions to keep it close
Baylor lost top 5 tacklers from a defense that was not that good. Sure I like Griffin III, but feel like this team has peaked out last year at 7-6. However, this is the best spot Baylor has been in to pull the upset, I am looking forward to this game to see how TCU reloads.
Phil says, BU is 0-3 vs TCU with avg lose by 24 ppg since the SWC split.
Good luck
With you on Boise and NW
yea history is on TCU side for sure.. just think TCU takes big step back this year (still wins 9 games with easy schedule), but with new QB, 4 new OL and bunch of new starters on D, Baylor has the talent at the skill positions to keep it close
like em all but W Mich.....although if goes to 24....maybe not bad
I see your point and I might lay off here just because we don't know what to expect.. if Denard is in gun 50-60% of the time, UM could easily throw up 40 on WMU.. if they really begin the transition to run a pro-style O, WMU could win outright.. Broncos played MSU kinda tough @MSU to open last year, losing by 24- could see similar result, but again, it really depends on what they do with Denard.. However, I will say with that crap UM defense, WMU could put up 21 and not break a sweat..
like em all but W Mich.....although if goes to 24....maybe not bad
I see your point and I might lay off here just because we don't know what to expect.. if Denard is in gun 50-60% of the time, UM could easily throw up 40 on WMU.. if they really begin the transition to run a pro-style O, WMU could win outright.. Broncos played MSU kinda tough @MSU to open last year, losing by 24- could see similar result, but again, it really depends on what they do with Denard.. However, I will say with that crap UM defense, WMU could put up 21 and not break a sweat..
first time on the site since just past Super Bowl.......looking forward to the season and chatting with ya............havent't really looked at anything but will agree with Boise.............hate the team but like the pick that week.............however I may lay off so I can root for UGA.......did I mention I hate Boise!later days my friend...
first time on the site since just past Super Bowl.......looking forward to the season and chatting with ya............havent't really looked at anything but will agree with Boise.............hate the team but like the pick that week.............however I may lay off so I can root for UGA.......did I mention I hate Boise!later days my friend...
seems like almost everyone loves Baylor week 1 .....
45-10 LY
maybe something like 35-17 TY
u mite be on to something. my research has shown that TCU usually covers the line, whatever it is example. if its 7pt line they win by 8 if its 20 they win by 21. with that being said, this is still Baylors best shot at winning.
seems like almost everyone loves Baylor week 1 .....
45-10 LY
maybe something like 35-17 TY
u mite be on to something. my research has shown that TCU usually covers the line, whatever it is example. if its 7pt line they win by 8 if its 20 they win by 21. with that being said, this is still Baylors best shot at winning.
u mite be on to something. my research has shown that TCU usually covers the line, whatever it is example. if its 7pt line they win by 8 if its 20 they win by 21. with that being said, this is still Baylors best shot at winning.
TCU 15-11 ATS the last 2 years
Though the last 2 TCU teams were, potentially, MUCH, stronger on both sides of the ball compared to this year's team.. might see a little over-value in the Frogs early on..
u mite be on to something. my research has shown that TCU usually covers the line, whatever it is example. if its 7pt line they win by 8 if its 20 they win by 21. with that being said, this is still Baylors best shot at winning.
TCU 15-11 ATS the last 2 years
Though the last 2 TCU teams were, potentially, MUCH, stronger on both sides of the ball compared to this year's team.. might see a little over-value in the Frogs early on..
u mite be on to something. my research has shown that TCU usually covers the line, whatever it is example. if its 7pt line they win by 8 if its 20 they win by 21. with that being said, this is still Baylors best shot at winning.
They usually cover other than when I bet large on them, like Week 1 against Oregon St. or the Rose Bowl against Wisconsin.
I liked that team up until last year. Cost me a couple dimes.
u mite be on to something. my research has shown that TCU usually covers the line, whatever it is example. if its 7pt line they win by 8 if its 20 they win by 21. with that being said, this is still Baylors best shot at winning.
They usually cover other than when I bet large on them, like Week 1 against Oregon St. or the Rose Bowl against Wisconsin.
I liked that team up until last year. Cost me a couple dimes.
Baylor is the most personal game on TCU's schedule, both for Patterson and really the entire university in general. There is bad blood there that goes all the way back to the formation of the Big 12 Conference. Frankly, Baylor is not going to be able to compete at the line of scrimmage, just like they weren't able to last year. This entire board went bananas when Baylor got 21 against TCU last year and the Frogs had it covered by the middle of the 2nd quarter.
I would advise against playing the game altogether. I would only consider anything under 4 for TCU and I doubt I'm going to get that. Air Force, IMO, is a much better bet the next week. TCU has always struggled in its first week of a road trip. Plus at that point of the season, the defense has not fully grasped the 4-2-5 and is generally more susceptible to giving up big plays.
Baylor is the most personal game on TCU's schedule, both for Patterson and really the entire university in general. There is bad blood there that goes all the way back to the formation of the Big 12 Conference. Frankly, Baylor is not going to be able to compete at the line of scrimmage, just like they weren't able to last year. This entire board went bananas when Baylor got 21 against TCU last year and the Frogs had it covered by the middle of the 2nd quarter.
I would advise against playing the game altogether. I would only consider anything under 4 for TCU and I doubt I'm going to get that. Air Force, IMO, is a much better bet the next week. TCU has always struggled in its first week of a road trip. Plus at that point of the season, the defense has not fully grasped the 4-2-5 and is generally more susceptible to giving up big plays.
Baylor is the most personal game on TCU's schedule, both for Patterson and really the entire university in general. There is bad blood there that goes all the way back to the formation of the Big 12 Conference. Frankly, Baylor is not going to be able to compete at the line of scrimmage, just like they weren't able to last year. This entire board went bananas when Baylor got 21 against TCU last year and the Frogs had it covered by the middle of the 2nd quarter.
While that was true in year's past, and I know TCU recruits well.. still 4 new OL including a frosh Center..
Now, I know Baylor lost decent amount on defense, but new QB on the road making first start, 4 new OL.. if there was ever a year for Baylor to compete (LY's game can almost be taken with grain of salt considering how different this TCU team will look), this would be the year..
Baylor is the most personal game on TCU's schedule, both for Patterson and really the entire university in general. There is bad blood there that goes all the way back to the formation of the Big 12 Conference. Frankly, Baylor is not going to be able to compete at the line of scrimmage, just like they weren't able to last year. This entire board went bananas when Baylor got 21 against TCU last year and the Frogs had it covered by the middle of the 2nd quarter.
While that was true in year's past, and I know TCU recruits well.. still 4 new OL including a frosh Center..
Now, I know Baylor lost decent amount on defense, but new QB on the road making first start, 4 new OL.. if there was ever a year for Baylor to compete (LY's game can almost be taken with grain of salt considering how different this TCU team will look), this would be the year..
Though the last 2 TCU teams were, potentially, MUCH, stronger on both sides of the ball compared to this year's team.. might see a little over-value in the Frogs early on..
that info has nothing and i mean nothing to do with game bro. the frogs have never been an over team. quite frankly i think u underestimate the horned frogs program and its quite insulting. they will beat Baylor friday sept.2 final score 22-17, hows that for an over.
Though the last 2 TCU teams were, potentially, MUCH, stronger on both sides of the ball compared to this year's team.. might see a little over-value in the Frogs early on..
that info has nothing and i mean nothing to do with game bro. the frogs have never been an over team. quite frankly i think u underestimate the horned frogs program and its quite insulting. they will beat Baylor friday sept.2 final score 22-17, hows that for an over.
Though the last 2 TCU teams were, potentially, MUCH, stronger on both sides of the ball compared to this year's team.. might see a little over-value in the Frogs early on..
TCU defense will have Robert Griffin running scared. The TCU offense looks to be down a few notches. Under 60 would be my play if I got that number.
I'd take Baylor +14.5 or TCU -6.5 or better
I might take WM +24 at Michigan who is learning new schemes. I think the line will be 17 to 20 at most. I don't see a lot of preseason support for Michigan.
NW all depends on persa like you said. Probably the most valuable player to his team in NCAA. I'd really like 7.5 points to take NW because I am not sure if NW can stop BC's running game. Game will most likely be a pass for me.
No opinion on Purdue/MTSU. Sun Belt is not an easy conference for me to cap.
I wouldn't bet against Boise, but I don't think this game will be in my top 5 plays week 1.
Though the last 2 TCU teams were, potentially, MUCH, stronger on both sides of the ball compared to this year's team.. might see a little over-value in the Frogs early on..
TCU defense will have Robert Griffin running scared. The TCU offense looks to be down a few notches. Under 60 would be my play if I got that number.
I'd take Baylor +14.5 or TCU -6.5 or better
I might take WM +24 at Michigan who is learning new schemes. I think the line will be 17 to 20 at most. I don't see a lot of preseason support for Michigan.
NW all depends on persa like you said. Probably the most valuable player to his team in NCAA. I'd really like 7.5 points to take NW because I am not sure if NW can stop BC's running game. Game will most likely be a pass for me.
No opinion on Purdue/MTSU. Sun Belt is not an easy conference for me to cap.
I wouldn't bet against Boise, but I don't think this game will be in my top 5 plays week 1.
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