3* 0-0, +0.00
2* 0-1, -2.20
1* 0-2, -2.35
Year: 0-3, -4.55
Last Week: Never really felt Oregon State had control of the game and Miami OH outgained Kent by 300 yards and had control of the clock for 10 more minutes but turned the ball over 5 times and their defense is atrocious.
This Week: I like quite a bit. Will post what I played and will post leans that I haven't pulled yet and doubt I do.
2* East Carolina -2.5 ... Maybe playing on the road in a venue hosting a homecoming will get these kids riled up, cuz they sure haven't looked like the team I thought they'd be this year. With that said, I don't think highly of Marshall, and ECU has won 13 of their last 14 when holding the opponent under 24 points and Marshall's offense is as boring as it gets. Feel like laying anything under -3 on the road is a deathtrap, but i'm sticking to my guns here. #1 C-USA at #5 C-USA.
1* Army/Tulane Over 45 ... Scary taking an over with these two teams but they did hit 57 last year, and Army was able to put up 44 points. On the flip side, Tulane only scored 13 yet still had 480+ yards of offense. Hunch has me thinking they are able to convert those into points this year. The entire game last year saw 823 yards of total offense. Probably the dumbest play of the day, but I couldn't pass it up.
1* Duke/Va Tech Over 47 ... Duke didn't have Lewis last year in this matchup. Duke this year has gone 63, 60, 54, and 40. Virginia Tech is letdown mode maybe and Duke's style just screams points.
3* Bowling Green -2.5 ... Ohio hasn't seen a QB as good as Sheehan all year. They beat Cal Poly, and North Texas. Losses against Tennessee and Uconn. Boo Jackson was the face of the squad and he's not back for a while. After the Missouri game, all Bowling Green would talk about was getting into MAC play healthy for the first matchup with Ohio. They were -2.5 on the road in this spot last year. I'll take my chances on the better squad at home.
LEANS
-Minnesota has revenge and Wisky hits the road for the first time. Minnesota had their way with Wisky last year for 3 quarters and then collapsed. Lean Minnesota.
-NCSTU not living up to my expectations. Wake doesn't thrill me at all. NCSTU doesn't give up the big play, Wake don't look for the big play. Have to believe value is on the pup. Lean NC State.
-Florida State has revenge and has looked good this year in bounce back games. I'll never lay more than a FG on the road unless the spot is right and this team is not consistent, but still. Lean FSU.
-Actually had Ball State a spot better in the MAC this year than Toledo, and maybe their offensive production at Auburn was a step up. This is a lively home dog, but I laid off. Lean Ball State.
-Western Michigan catching a TD on the road at NIU. Northern has surprised a few this year, one of them being me. They might be for real, and were caught looking ahead last week against Idaho. Still not sure they warrant a -6.5 here though, I was thinking PK. Lean WMU.
GL