Hey guys... These are pretty lengthy. I'll be doing one for every game and probably 2 every day. Here are my first two..
Fresno State vs. Wyoming...
Some stats...
- Wyoming has gone 0-5 against bowl eligible teams and have been outscored 170-30.
- They have 6 victories. One is over D2 Weber State. The other 5 teams have a combined record of 18-42. Going even furthur then this, 3 of their opponents victories have come against D2 teams. Also, 7 of the 18 opponent victories have come between 2 teams Wyoming beat playing eachother.
- Including Weber State, Wyoming's avg. winning margin is less then 7. They won by a combined 40 points, and 27 of those 40 came in a victory over 1-11 New Mexico
- In their 6 losses, their avg loss is a little over 27 points per game.
Wyoming's Offensive breakdown:
Points Scored: ranks 111
Total Yards: ranks 112
Pass Yards: ranks 104
Rush yards: ranks 86
Fresno State's Defensive breakdown:
Points Allowed: 81
Total Yards Allowed: 97
Pass Yards Allowed: 32
Rush Yards Allowed: 111
Advantage: Fresno State... Wyoming's offense is awful. They have no passing offense and Fresno has a surprisingly solid pass defense. The're strength (if you can even call it that) is rushing. While taht is Fresno's defensive weakness, with the lack of passing offense they will be able to load the box and shut down the run. Fresno's weakness is dulled out by the even worse Wyoming defense
Fresno State's Offensive Breakdown:
Total Points: 14
Total Yards: 19
Pass Yards: 79
Rush Yards: 7
Wyoming's Defensive Breakdown:
Total Points Allowed: 76
Total Yards ALlowed: 82
Pass Yards Allowed: 73
Rush Yards Allowed: 90
Advantage: Huge advantage to Fresno State here. They have a great rushing offense against the weakness of Wyoming defense (rushing defense). I feel like the Fresno offense will be able to get points nearly every time they touch the ball.
Other:
Net Punt Avg:
Fresno: 38.7 yards
Wyoming: 38.2
Penalties/yards per game:
Fresno: 4.3 per game / 37.8 yards
Wyoming: 6.3 per game / 60.7 yards
Time of Possesion:
Fresno: 32:20
Wyoming: 28:22
3rd down conversions (offense):
Fresno: 46%
Wyoming: 34%
3rd down conversions (defense):
Fresno: 39%
Wyoming: 40%
Field goals:
Fresno: 15 for 16
Wyoming: 14 for 17
Field goals allowed:
Fresno: 11 for 20
Wyoming: 16 for 20
Red Zone Scores:
Fresno: 81%
Wyoming: 74%
Red Zone Scores (defense):
Fresno: 78%
Wyoming: 80%
Red Zone Touchdowns:
Fresno: 62%
Wyoming: 35%
Head Coach: Advanatge Pat Hill
Analysis: Lots of info here. Fresno State dominates a couple of categories. What stood out at me was Time of posession. Fresno is has the ball longer then there opponents, while Wyoming has it less. This combined and I think Fresno will dominate time of possession. Also, the penalties stood out a lot. Fresno does not average a lot while wyoming does. This penalty differential could possibly lead to a couple of cheap first downs/scores. Another thing that stood out was the 3rd down conversions. Overall, I think Fresno will be able to move the chains and keep the Wyoming defense on the field.
And then the Touchdowns. To me the most telling stat on here. Look at the diffence in the touchdown percentage. Fresno will drive down there and score touchdowns, while the few times Wyoming gets there they have to settle for field goals more often then not.
I know this is a lot of info... but another interesting thing I noticed.
Fresno state outscores opponents 259-182 in first half, while Wyoming is outscored 106-158. This could warrant a first half play on Fresno.
After all of this.... My final score prediction..
Fresno: 34
Wyoming: 13