WEEK 1 THREAD
I have a short memory win/lose. Onward we go fine gentleman!
Now again, my philosophy with betting college football is pretty simple. Players and coaches care about winning ball games, not covering spreads. I like my money on the side of these motivations.
I will be playing TWO ML locks with EVERY play I make this week. Here's this week ML locks...
Wisconson ML(-326) - This one jumped out at me for so many reasons. Obviously Wisconsin looked like some stale doo-doo against Northern Iowa, but they were up 19-0 in the third before taking their foots off the pedal a little early. Only ran for 3.4 yds per carry which is pretty dismal against an FCS school and gave up WAY too many passing yards but this is good for two reasons 1) It brought this weeks line way down 2) It's a coaching opportunity for Bielema who will have these boys more than ready heading into week 2. And another positive, Danny Obrien looked really accurate and is a perfect fit for Wisky's system. On the flip side, Oregon st didn't even play week 1 because it was cancelled. HUGE deal as this was gonna be their tune up game before taking on the badgers. Imagine preparing to play a game against Nichol st, having it cancelled, then opening with Wisconsin instead This is one of my favorite situational plays. It doesn't happen very often, last year it happened TWICE. UAB and Nevada had week 1 byes, then lost by a combined 108-20 in week 2, both losing ATS. Oregon St brings back an avg Soph QB who threw for 16 tds and 18 int's, and last but not least, this is classic strength vs weakness, much like Bama and Mich last week. Wisky brings in a the best running game in nation vs a team that ranked 101st against the run last year. Wisky rolls
FIU ML(-2246) - I know, I know. You're probably saying "Lefty...that's such a HUGE line!", and it is. I usually don't go this big with one of my ML locks, but with the value I'm getting with Wisconsin I was able to add this little gem and not hurt myself too bad. Obvious fade against one of the worst CFB teams in the nation in Akron, and their going on the road for FIU's home opener! Gotta love it! FIU is coming off a crazy game @Duke where they lost by 20 but outgained Duke 513-420, had twice as many 1st downs, doubled their conv rate on 3rd down, and they both had the same amount of TO's! Never seen nothing like it. Craziest play came at end of 2nd when FIU FG attempt was blocked and taken other way for Duke TD. That's a 10 pt swing! Jake Medlock looked good going for 350, 2 td's and 0 int's. On the defensive side, FIU is loaded, returning 10 starters. They will be motivated after that Duke game and take it out on a truly wretched Akron squad. Lock it up!
So once again, I will be playing those TWO ML locks with each one of my plays. I will give brief write up, show what I'll be laying for the 3 team parlay.
More to come...