Here are my bowl picks for Saturday:
jacksonville st -2.5 louisiana
Miami (OH) +6.5 Appalachian St
Fresno St +3.5 New Mexico St
California +3 Texas Tech
Analysis to follow
Here are my bowl picks for Saturday:
jacksonville st -2.5 louisiana
Miami (OH) +6.5 Appalachian St
Fresno St +3.5 New Mexico St
California +3 Texas Tech
Analysis to follow
Here are my bowl picks for Saturday:
jacksonville st -2.5 louisiana
Miami (OH) +6.5 Appalachian St
Fresno St +3.5 New Mexico St
California +3 Texas Tech
Analysis to follow
Obviously this bowl season is going to so different from any other one we have experienced, with the opt outs, transfer portals and NIL crap. Having said that, I decided to use a two tiered handicapping system. The first tier is to evaluate the teams on how they did against comparable opponents. The second tier would be to adjust the handicap based on the relative impact of the opt outs on each team. Of course how much the head coach (or interim coach) cares about winning these games will impact the game prep. It may be wise to live bet these games as one could probably tell within the first 5 minutes of the game which team is more incentivized to play. Anyway...here goes:
Jacksonville State -2.5 Louisiana
It doesn’t appear that opt outs from either side will be a major factor. Obviously this is an enormous game for Jax State as they moved up from FCS and found success at the FBS level. These Gamecocks played competitive close games against comparable teams to the Ragin Cajuns – namely a 20-17 win over WKU and a 20-17 loss to a red hot NMSU team.
The Cajuns will have to go with backup QB Chandler Fields who played the last 3 games of the season losing to a miserable Southern Miss team and also to Troy. Other than that, you have to look at Rich Rodriguez at the helm for Jax State and his history of success prepping his team for bowl games. Jacksonville State has the much better defense, which will likely bring a victory and a cover for this inconsequential point spread. Laying the points on the ‘Cocks.
Obviously this bowl season is going to so different from any other one we have experienced, with the opt outs, transfer portals and NIL crap. Having said that, I decided to use a two tiered handicapping system. The first tier is to evaluate the teams on how they did against comparable opponents. The second tier would be to adjust the handicap based on the relative impact of the opt outs on each team. Of course how much the head coach (or interim coach) cares about winning these games will impact the game prep. It may be wise to live bet these games as one could probably tell within the first 5 minutes of the game which team is more incentivized to play. Anyway...here goes:
Jacksonville State -2.5 Louisiana
It doesn’t appear that opt outs from either side will be a major factor. Obviously this is an enormous game for Jax State as they moved up from FCS and found success at the FBS level. These Gamecocks played competitive close games against comparable teams to the Ragin Cajuns – namely a 20-17 win over WKU and a 20-17 loss to a red hot NMSU team.
The Cajuns will have to go with backup QB Chandler Fields who played the last 3 games of the season losing to a miserable Southern Miss team and also to Troy. Other than that, you have to look at Rich Rodriguez at the helm for Jax State and his history of success prepping his team for bowl games. Jacksonville State has the much better defense, which will likely bring a victory and a cover for this inconsequential point spread. Laying the points on the ‘Cocks.
Miami (OH) +6.5 Appalachian State
Breaking this down it’s difficult to see at all why Miami is the underdog in this game. Needless to say, I love getting this many points. At 11-2, the Red Hawks have had a great season and have vanquished teams equal in caliber to App State. Namely: conference championship win over Toledo 23-14. A victory over Ohio 30-16. Taking down Bowling Green 27-0 and beating Cincinnati 31-24. Their only losses were at the Miami Hurricanes and a close loss to Toledo in their earlier tilt. There’s nothing not to like about this team that has only given up 16 points per game all season.
Other than their signature win against James Madison, Appalachian State has not beaten anyone good. The three teams they played on par with the Redhawks: Troy, Wyoming and Coastal Carolina all defeated the Mountaineers.
The reason why the Mountaineers are favored is because Miami is down to the 3 string QB, but the beauty of bowl games is Miami has had 2 weeks to prepare and, they have the best defense that the Mountaineers have seen all season. A win here will cap the best season they’ve had in a while. Watch them play hard and cover this spread. Taking the points.
Miami (OH) +6.5 Appalachian State
Breaking this down it’s difficult to see at all why Miami is the underdog in this game. Needless to say, I love getting this many points. At 11-2, the Red Hawks have had a great season and have vanquished teams equal in caliber to App State. Namely: conference championship win over Toledo 23-14. A victory over Ohio 30-16. Taking down Bowling Green 27-0 and beating Cincinnati 31-24. Their only losses were at the Miami Hurricanes and a close loss to Toledo in their earlier tilt. There’s nothing not to like about this team that has only given up 16 points per game all season.
Other than their signature win against James Madison, Appalachian State has not beaten anyone good. The three teams they played on par with the Redhawks: Troy, Wyoming and Coastal Carolina all defeated the Mountaineers.
The reason why the Mountaineers are favored is because Miami is down to the 3 string QB, but the beauty of bowl games is Miami has had 2 weeks to prepare and, they have the best defense that the Mountaineers have seen all season. A win here will cap the best season they’ve had in a while. Watch them play hard and cover this spread. Taking the points.
Fresno St +3.5 New Mexico State
New Mexico State is now everyone’s darling after their flabbergasting victory over Auburn. But they are still garbage. Setting the Auburn game aside, the only team that they played all year that was as good as Fresno was Liberty, and they lost to Liberty twice. There is no evidence that they are better than Fresno, and Fresno is getting points. Furthermore their QB was injured in the final game of the season against Liberty. He’s ready to play…or is he? I’m always nervous when Jerry Kill is on the sidelines.
Fresno has beaten a number of teams that are better than NMSU: Purdue, Arizona State, Utah State, UNLV and Boise State have all fallen to the Bulldogs. Fresno State leads the all-time series with the Aggies, 18-1. Playing in New Mexico will help the Aggies, but no one is going to be at this game. I am taking the better team…and the points. Go Bulldogs.
Fresno St +3.5 New Mexico State
New Mexico State is now everyone’s darling after their flabbergasting victory over Auburn. But they are still garbage. Setting the Auburn game aside, the only team that they played all year that was as good as Fresno was Liberty, and they lost to Liberty twice. There is no evidence that they are better than Fresno, and Fresno is getting points. Furthermore their QB was injured in the final game of the season against Liberty. He’s ready to play…or is he? I’m always nervous when Jerry Kill is on the sidelines.
Fresno has beaten a number of teams that are better than NMSU: Purdue, Arizona State, Utah State, UNLV and Boise State have all fallen to the Bulldogs. Fresno State leads the all-time series with the Aggies, 18-1. Playing in New Mexico will help the Aggies, but no one is going to be at this game. I am taking the better team…and the points. Go Bulldogs.
@iamhuge
Are you not concerned at all with the way Fresno State played their last 3 games?
24 pt loss at San Jose St
8 pt loss at home to New Mexico
15 point loss at San Diego St
san Jose State is a pretty good team, but New Mexico and San Diego State are absolutely horrible teams.
@iamhuge
Are you not concerned at all with the way Fresno State played their last 3 games?
24 pt loss at San Jose St
8 pt loss at home to New Mexico
15 point loss at San Diego St
san Jose State is a pretty good team, but New Mexico and San Diego State are absolutely horrible teams.
That is most certainly a point of consideration, however I am still attracted to the fact that Fresno has played a much tougher schedule overall AND they are getting points in what is very likely to be a very low scoring game.
That is most certainly a point of consideration, however I am still attracted to the fact that Fresno has played a much tougher schedule overall AND they are getting points in what is very likely to be a very low scoring game.
California +3 Texas Tech
While the Red Raiders have played a tough schedule, they have played 5 teams that are comparable in strength to Cal – namely: Wyoming, BYU, TCU, Kansas and UCF. They covered the 3 point spread in those games only once. Cal has played 4 teams of comparable caliber to Texas Tech (Auburn, USC, Washington State and UCLA) and was able to go 3-1 in those contests. So getting the points here seems to be of good value.
Texas Tech will be without starting receivers Myles Price and Jerand Bradley due to their portal entries. They are the team's second and third-leading receivers on the year. Air Raid will be D E D and their offense will be one dimensional. Right now Cal’s QB has the hot hand and he’s been able to put up some points.
I will take the team who has played better against comparable opponents, the team that has the better QB and better receivers - and the team getting the points. Go Bears.
California +3 Texas Tech
While the Red Raiders have played a tough schedule, they have played 5 teams that are comparable in strength to Cal – namely: Wyoming, BYU, TCU, Kansas and UCF. They covered the 3 point spread in those games only once. Cal has played 4 teams of comparable caliber to Texas Tech (Auburn, USC, Washington State and UCLA) and was able to go 3-1 in those contests. So getting the points here seems to be of good value.
Texas Tech will be without starting receivers Myles Price and Jerand Bradley due to their portal entries. They are the team's second and third-leading receivers on the year. Air Raid will be D E D and their offense will be one dimensional. Right now Cal’s QB has the hot hand and he’s been able to put up some points.
I will take the team who has played better against comparable opponents, the team that has the better QB and better receivers - and the team getting the points. Go Bears.
what a joke. Not 1, not 2, but 3 defensive scores
what a joke. Not 1, not 2, but 3 defensive scores
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