Then use those PRs as part of their process to develop their own lines? Then, of course, compare their lines to the openers and respond accordingly?
I have week-in and week-out made own lines for almost 20 years. Although not living in Vegas, I am fortunate enough to have a representative at the Wynn every Sunday during the season. This has been one of the most successful aspects of my arsenal the past couple of years, especially from the beginning of the season to mid-October.
Then use those PRs as part of their process to develop their own lines? Then, of course, compare their lines to the openers and respond accordingly?
I have week-in and week-out made own lines for almost 20 years. Although not living in Vegas, I am fortunate enough to have a representative at the Wynn every Sunday during the season. This has been one of the most successful aspects of my arsenal the past couple of years, especially from the beginning of the season to mid-October.
You are exactly right. There are people who have never made or used power ratings that do quite well at the CFB betting window. Conversely, there are people who use PRs and can make a good line, but cannot beat the line to save their life.
My belief is that a relatively small percentage of bettors actually make and use their own PRs. This does not make this set of bettors any better or worse than their non-PR counterparts. I was just simply trying to see how many use PRs (and actually looking to compare "notes" if anybody made their own).
You are exactly right. There are people who have never made or used power ratings that do quite well at the CFB betting window. Conversely, there are people who use PRs and can make a good line, but cannot beat the line to save their life.
My belief is that a relatively small percentage of bettors actually make and use their own PRs. This does not make this set of bettors any better or worse than their non-PR counterparts. I was just simply trying to see how many use PRs (and actually looking to compare "notes" if anybody made their own).
I know a lot of very good cappers swear by PRs, but I think it's largely an exercise in futility. I just don't think it's an effective use of time for whatever slight probative value might be gained from them, if any.
I know a lot of very good cappers swear by PRs, but I think it's largely an exercise in futility. I just don't think it's an effective use of time for whatever slight probative value might be gained from them, if any.
a "betting group" i know use sagarin ratings to formulate a line and look for a variance to their line. They swear by it, but i dont know the formula or the margins of difference to make a play. Theyre recreational, so it couldn't be too complex.
a "betting group" i know use sagarin ratings to formulate a line and look for a variance to their line. They swear by it, but i dont know the formula or the margins of difference to make a play. Theyre recreational, so it couldn't be too complex.
I know a lot of very good cappers swear by PRs, but I think it's largely an exercise in futility. I just don't think it's an effective use of time for whatever slight probative value might be gained from them, if any.
it's all about matchups, and power rankings do not do well in position by position matchups,
trust me, i have tried every method known to man to try and beat this game, and matchup analysis IMHO is by far the best and most accurate projection of what will happen on the field.
I know a lot of very good cappers swear by PRs, but I think it's largely an exercise in futility. I just don't think it's an effective use of time for whatever slight probative value might be gained from them, if any.
it's all about matchups, and power rankings do not do well in position by position matchups,
trust me, i have tried every method known to man to try and beat this game, and matchup analysis IMHO is by far the best and most accurate projection of what will happen on the field.
a "betting group" i know use sagarin ratings to formulate a line and look for a variance to their line. They swear by it, but i dont know the formula or the margins of difference to make a play. Theyre recreational, so it couldn't be too complex.
Sagarin's 2012 record vs the spread :
Sagarin Predictive .529
Sagarin .544
Sagarin Elo .514
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
a "betting group" i know use sagarin ratings to formulate a line and look for a variance to their line. They swear by it, but i dont know the formula or the margins of difference to make a play. Theyre recreational, so it couldn't be too complex.
To use or not to use power rankings certainly draws a lot of different opinions.
They certainly are time consuming and absolutely just one piece of the handicapping puzzle, but not an end all cure all.
By mid-season, everybody's power rankings _ whether it's mine or Sagarin _ will look roughly the same. It's during the first five or so weeks of the season where you see some notable differences.
With all due respect, take a look at the preseason Sagarin Rankings and you'll be doing a double take at some of the placements. In a nutshell, his preseason rankings have a large carryover from the previous season in some cases and I believe, most of us would agree, there's not such a thing in CFB from one season to the next.
My primary purpose for PRs in the preseason is to make comparisons to others who I believe have knowledge and a strong opinion. If I have Team W at No. 42 and four other trusted types have them between 55 and 80, then I might reconsider. I do lean pretty heavily on my own opinions, but it is wise to do some checks and balances.
Just as I did at the Golden Nugget in early June, I am confident I will routinely get the best of the number, betting against some of the first openers. It's a result of a lot of hard work _ too many hours in fact _ part of which is the development and fine tuning of power ratings in my individual case.
I once compared being able to know what the number should be on a game to the Supreme Court justice who said, "I don't know how to define pornography, but I know it when I see it."
Likewise, I'm not sure if making a number is 60 percent art/40 percent science or whatever combinations there might be, but you have to know what a good number on a game looks like. And know when you see it. Or not.
To use or not to use power rankings certainly draws a lot of different opinions.
They certainly are time consuming and absolutely just one piece of the handicapping puzzle, but not an end all cure all.
By mid-season, everybody's power rankings _ whether it's mine or Sagarin _ will look roughly the same. It's during the first five or so weeks of the season where you see some notable differences.
With all due respect, take a look at the preseason Sagarin Rankings and you'll be doing a double take at some of the placements. In a nutshell, his preseason rankings have a large carryover from the previous season in some cases and I believe, most of us would agree, there's not such a thing in CFB from one season to the next.
My primary purpose for PRs in the preseason is to make comparisons to others who I believe have knowledge and a strong opinion. If I have Team W at No. 42 and four other trusted types have them between 55 and 80, then I might reconsider. I do lean pretty heavily on my own opinions, but it is wise to do some checks and balances.
Just as I did at the Golden Nugget in early June, I am confident I will routinely get the best of the number, betting against some of the first openers. It's a result of a lot of hard work _ too many hours in fact _ part of which is the development and fine tuning of power ratings in my individual case.
I once compared being able to know what the number should be on a game to the Supreme Court justice who said, "I don't know how to define pornography, but I know it when I see it."
Likewise, I'm not sure if making a number is 60 percent art/40 percent science or whatever combinations there might be, but you have to know what a good number on a game looks like. And know when you see it. Or not.
I do them but mostly because i enjoy it and use it as a starting point to ballpark spreads. Don't ever put too much weight on it alone although sometimes it makes me look twice at a game or two and find a winning side. Makes me follow all teams closely and like I said its something I enjoy but don't believe my number is better than any other.
I do them but mostly because i enjoy it and use it as a starting point to ballpark spreads. Don't ever put too much weight on it alone although sometimes it makes me look twice at a game or two and find a winning side. Makes me follow all teams closely and like I said its something I enjoy but don't believe my number is better than any other.
I'm a low key, unassuming guy, but like I told a fellow capper recently about betting the GOY openers at the Golden Nugget in early June, "There were about 16 other guys there. Tony Miller indicated the book has won on these games the last couple of years. So when I looked around at those other 16, I better be smarter than at least 10 of 'em or I'm in the wrong room." And the guys betting the openers are "professionals," guys with a strong opinion, not tourists from Cleveland looking to throw down a few bucks on the Bucks.
As for my power ratings, with history as my guide, I know my numbers are better than the linemaker's during the first four or five weeks. In a nutshell, I'm going to outwork and know more about the involved teams than he does.It doesn't happen overnight. It happens on days like yesterday when my wife was out of town and I stayed indoors from about 6 a.m.-to-6 p.m. Power rankings are part of my process, but, again, not the end all.
I'm a low key, unassuming guy, but like I told a fellow capper recently about betting the GOY openers at the Golden Nugget in early June, "There were about 16 other guys there. Tony Miller indicated the book has won on these games the last couple of years. So when I looked around at those other 16, I better be smarter than at least 10 of 'em or I'm in the wrong room." And the guys betting the openers are "professionals," guys with a strong opinion, not tourists from Cleveland looking to throw down a few bucks on the Bucks.
As for my power ratings, with history as my guide, I know my numbers are better than the linemaker's during the first four or five weeks. In a nutshell, I'm going to outwork and know more about the involved teams than he does.It doesn't happen overnight. It happens on days like yesterday when my wife was out of town and I stayed indoors from about 6 a.m.-to-6 p.m. Power rankings are part of my process, but, again, not the end all.
I hear ya partner. I dont think they consider the sagarin number to be sharp in comparison to Vegas, but actually the other way around. I think they consider they're formula as very generic with general knowledge and public information. So they search for a very different # Vegas has and consider it to be the way to go. If Team A is -3 sagarin line but -10 Vegas, they're looking to hammer on the side of -10. The part I agree with is siding Vegas--they always have more info than we do...if something looks to good to be true, it usually is.
I hear ya partner. I dont think they consider the sagarin number to be sharp in comparison to Vegas, but actually the other way around. I think they consider they're formula as very generic with general knowledge and public information. So they search for a very different # Vegas has and consider it to be the way to go. If Team A is -3 sagarin line but -10 Vegas, they're looking to hammer on the side of -10. The part I agree with is siding Vegas--they always have more info than we do...if something looks to good to be true, it usually is.
I hear ya partner. I dont think they consider the sagarin number to be sharp in comparison to Vegas, but actually the other way around. I think they consider they're formula as very generic with general knowledge and public information. So they search for a very different # Vegas has and consider it to be the way to go. If Team A is -3 sagarin line but -10 Vegas, they're looking to hammer on the side of -10. The part I agree with is siding Vegas--they always have more info than we do...if something looks to good to be true, it usually is.
Understood , I posted this to caution those " cappers " out there who use Sagarin's data as their primary strategy.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
I hear ya partner. I dont think they consider the sagarin number to be sharp in comparison to Vegas, but actually the other way around. I think they consider they're formula as very generic with general knowledge and public information. So they search for a very different # Vegas has and consider it to be the way to go. If Team A is -3 sagarin line but -10 Vegas, they're looking to hammer on the side of -10. The part I agree with is siding Vegas--they always have more info than we do...if something looks to good to be true, it usually is.
Understood , I posted this to caution those " cappers " out there who use Sagarin's data as their primary strategy.
Granted, its a different animal altogether, but a similar method in CBB Vegas vs KenPom is very, very, profitable--especially early in the season. CBB in Nov-Dec has been the most profitable for me last 3 years.
Granted, its a different animal altogether, but a similar method in CBB Vegas vs KenPom is very, very, profitable--especially early in the season. CBB in Nov-Dec has been the most profitable for me last 3 years.
I have developed power ratings for many seasons. In the beginning of the season, I start the season with the ratings from last season. Each week I make adjustments depending on performance that week.
As the season progresses my ratings are in high agreement with the odds. Which means, why bother?
I have developed power ratings for many seasons. In the beginning of the season, I start the season with the ratings from last season. Each week I make adjustments depending on performance that week.
As the season progresses my ratings are in high agreement with the odds. Which means, why bother?
it's all about matchups, and power rankings do not do well in position by position matchups,
trust me, i have tried every method known to man to try and beat this game, and matchup analysis IMHO is by far the best and most accurate projection of what will happen on the field.
+1 - Right on GIG - its all about the matchups, and motivation...
it's all about matchups, and power rankings do not do well in position by position matchups,
trust me, i have tried every method known to man to try and beat this game, and matchup analysis IMHO is by far the best and most accurate projection of what will happen on the field.
+1 - Right on GIG - its all about the matchups, and motivation...
I have developed power ratings for many seasons. In the beginning of the season, I start the season with the ratings from last season. Each week I make adjustments depending on performance that week.
As the season progresses my ratings are in high agreement with the odds. Which means, why bother?
woundn't you adjust your starting rankings from the previous year to reflect talent losses and coaching changes???
I have developed power ratings for many seasons. In the beginning of the season, I start the season with the ratings from last season. Each week I make adjustments depending on performance that week.
As the season progresses my ratings are in high agreement with the odds. Which means, why bother?
woundn't you adjust your starting rankings from the previous year to reflect talent losses and coaching changes???
woundn't you adjust your starting rankings from the previous year to reflect talent losses and coaching changes???
No, although that would make the ratings better in the first 4 games. I would start betting in the fifth week, when I had 4 weeks of strong adjustments accomplished. Thereafter my week to week adjustments were small, fine tuned. Week 6,7, and 8 would give me a slight advantage over the odds, but by week 9 and beyond my system and the odds were almost exact - no advantage. I don't do this anymore.
woundn't you adjust your starting rankings from the previous year to reflect talent losses and coaching changes???
No, although that would make the ratings better in the first 4 games. I would start betting in the fifth week, when I had 4 weeks of strong adjustments accomplished. Thereafter my week to week adjustments were small, fine tuned. Week 6,7, and 8 would give me a slight advantage over the odds, but by week 9 and beyond my system and the odds were almost exact - no advantage. I don't do this anymore.
Power Ratings are useless to most everyone here...
WHY?....because recreational bettors bet the TEAM professionals....and guys that take this stuff seriously....bet the NUMBER
It's next to impossible to know what the number 'should be'..unless you have a running set of power rankings
THE POINT...of organizing your wagering.....running it like you might a business....is simply to give yourself a much better chance to profit LONG TERM... *you can give yourself a great chance to actually make money....and even make it tough to lose (unless you really stink)
The best argument for having a set of power rankings is this... *keeping in mind you are looking / waiting for a Vegas mistake... *these 'mistakes' occur (only) in the opening numbers *you cannot effectively take advantage of these errors...unless you know what the number should be
SURE....you can wait and break down the match-up and see where the number settles.....as you don't have to be....an advantage type player.......
you are simply passing up the best opportunity to make money that's all.....
note: this is not really something to brag about....but if you are one of the few guys in the WORLD....that can eyeball a match-up....and pick winners at a 55% clip or better for a 5-10 year period.....good for you.....
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
Power Ratings are useless to most everyone here...
WHY?....because recreational bettors bet the TEAM professionals....and guys that take this stuff seriously....bet the NUMBER
It's next to impossible to know what the number 'should be'..unless you have a running set of power rankings
THE POINT...of organizing your wagering.....running it like you might a business....is simply to give yourself a much better chance to profit LONG TERM... *you can give yourself a great chance to actually make money....and even make it tough to lose (unless you really stink)
The best argument for having a set of power rankings is this... *keeping in mind you are looking / waiting for a Vegas mistake... *these 'mistakes' occur (only) in the opening numbers *you cannot effectively take advantage of these errors...unless you know what the number should be
SURE....you can wait and break down the match-up and see where the number settles.....as you don't have to be....an advantage type player.......
you are simply passing up the best opportunity to make money that's all.....
note: this is not really something to brag about....but if you are one of the few guys in the WORLD....that can eyeball a match-up....and pick winners at a 55% clip or better for a 5-10 year period.....good for you.....
Totally agree that fundamental handicapping with a focus on personnel matchups is critical to long-term success.
Of course, we always remember the good outcomes, but I recall in 2006 when Cal traveled to Tennessee in much-anticipated season opener in Knoxville.
The Vols got in front early, it was never really a game and they coasted, 35-18.
By halftime of this game, I am licking my chops knowing that Cal is hosting Minnesota in Week Two in Berkley. The reason: The Gophers graduated their entire defensive front; the new starters basically haven't played at all; and now they're going to have to face an angry Cal squad; off a butt whupping; and giving them ample doses of Marshawn Lynch.
I made the line Cal -10, hoping it might open at 9.5. When the openers roll off the press Sunday afternoon, Cal is only favored by 7. I went "all in" on the Golden Bears to put it in a nutshell. Got as much 7 as I could and then added more at 7.5 and 8.
Long story short, Lynch racks up more than 250 total yards and Cal smashes Minnesota, 42-17.
I wish they were all this easy. In any event, this was "the perfect storm" of combining superior power ratings; situational handicapping; and assessing personnel matchups to post an easy winner.
I never said power ratings are the cure all and end all and understand a person can be quite successful and not use them in any shape, form or fashion.
Totally agree that fundamental handicapping with a focus on personnel matchups is critical to long-term success.
Of course, we always remember the good outcomes, but I recall in 2006 when Cal traveled to Tennessee in much-anticipated season opener in Knoxville.
The Vols got in front early, it was never really a game and they coasted, 35-18.
By halftime of this game, I am licking my chops knowing that Cal is hosting Minnesota in Week Two in Berkley. The reason: The Gophers graduated their entire defensive front; the new starters basically haven't played at all; and now they're going to have to face an angry Cal squad; off a butt whupping; and giving them ample doses of Marshawn Lynch.
I made the line Cal -10, hoping it might open at 9.5. When the openers roll off the press Sunday afternoon, Cal is only favored by 7. I went "all in" on the Golden Bears to put it in a nutshell. Got as much 7 as I could and then added more at 7.5 and 8.
Long story short, Lynch racks up more than 250 total yards and Cal smashes Minnesota, 42-17.
I wish they were all this easy. In any event, this was "the perfect storm" of combining superior power ratings; situational handicapping; and assessing personnel matchups to post an easy winner.
I never said power ratings are the cure all and end all and understand a person can be quite successful and not use them in any shape, form or fashion.
Another nugget on power ratings. Not to defame the esteemed Mr. Steele, but I just don't buy the nine sets of power ratings. I know it's often referenced in his publication _ which is more valuable than all the others combined for handicapping purposes _ that one set of PRs has Team A going 12-0, but another 8-4 and so on.
I don't know what the purpose is, but power ratings are like DNA in my opinion. Power ratings are a subjective number assigned to a team subjectively created by an individual. Everybody's basically got one.
Good luck,
Paul
P.S. _ By the way, Steele's magazine has dramatically reshaped many reputable cappers' preseason preparation with all the pertinent information.
Another nugget on power ratings. Not to defame the esteemed Mr. Steele, but I just don't buy the nine sets of power ratings. I know it's often referenced in his publication _ which is more valuable than all the others combined for handicapping purposes _ that one set of PRs has Team A going 12-0, but another 8-4 and so on.
I don't know what the purpose is, but power ratings are like DNA in my opinion. Power ratings are a subjective number assigned to a team subjectively created by an individual. Everybody's basically got one.
Good luck,
Paul
P.S. _ By the way, Steele's magazine has dramatically reshaped many reputable cappers' preseason preparation with all the pertinent information.
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