on a true neutral field.
What's your line?
Good luck,
Paul
Guys:
Thanks for all the great responses.
First, Wheaty, my exercise is based on what you believe a good betting line designed to draw balanced action would be? It would not be your prediction on the game or your guess necessarily on where the game will open, but rather your best estimation at a solid number. Obviously, there is a high degree of subjectivity involved.
Second, Bookie Assassin, once again you and I are of the same mindset. I felt there might be some overvaluing Ohio State (in my opinion) and believe Stanford -1 is a good number here.
Good luck,
Paul
Guys:
Thanks for all the great responses.
First, Wheaty, my exercise is based on what you believe a good betting line designed to draw balanced action would be? It would not be your prediction on the game or your guess necessarily on where the game will open, but rather your best estimation at a solid number. Obviously, there is a high degree of subjectivity involved.
Second, Bookie Assassin, once again you and I are of the same mindset. I felt there might be some overvaluing Ohio State (in my opinion) and believe Stanford -1 is a good number here.
Good luck,
Paul
Guys:
I had a poster at another forum also question what value my "hypotheticals" have and I'll post my response with some minor changes.
Many handicappers develop power ratings _ some spending hours upon hours in massaging and fine tuning their PRs. They then use those PRs as one of the tools to develop their own pointspread on a game, comparing their spread to the earliest opening number and, in some cases, attacking perceived weaknesses in the linemaker's number.
Occasionally, a capper may utilize a forum such as this one to pose questions about a hypothetical matchup in an effort to gain insight to the public's collective perception of the included teams. Although the sample size is relatively small, I find many persons on these forums to have above-average knowledge (Some can make a number, some have no idea), so I give more credence to the opinion of five persons here than, say, five persons with their cracks exposed turning in a zillion parlay cards at the LVH Superbook at 8:55 a.m. on a fall Saturday morning. My exercise in this case essentially is to measure the public's pulse relating to Louisville and Ohio State teams which are both gaining much preseason attention. I have posed this same scenario at three other forums. I suspected the forum responders would have both Louisville and Ohio State at least somewhat overvalued. My suspicions have been validated.
So, much like why does the NFL care how many times a strongman can bench press 225 pounds (After all, he's not going to be bench pressing while taking on a 325-pound offensive lineman), I do exercises to prepare my arsenal for the upcoming season. It is important to weigh what you think about teams against others' perceptions.
At this point in my preseason preparation, it is much more important for me to be able to put my finger on the public's collective "pulse" relating to some individual teams. It doesn't aid my process any to know whether this or that poster likes Oklahoma State -10.5 over Mississippi State at Reliant on opening weekend.
Again, I posed scenarios involving Louisville and Ohio State because of my belief that the public (and I believe the people posting here are generally more sophisicated than the composite bettor) would be giving these teams too much. My belief was validated.
Hopefully, some people find some value in my postings and food for thought. If not, I'll retire back to my rock.
Thanks for responding and good luck this season,
Paul
Guys:
I had a poster at another forum also question what value my "hypotheticals" have and I'll post my response with some minor changes.
Many handicappers develop power ratings _ some spending hours upon hours in massaging and fine tuning their PRs. They then use those PRs as one of the tools to develop their own pointspread on a game, comparing their spread to the earliest opening number and, in some cases, attacking perceived weaknesses in the linemaker's number.
Occasionally, a capper may utilize a forum such as this one to pose questions about a hypothetical matchup in an effort to gain insight to the public's collective perception of the included teams. Although the sample size is relatively small, I find many persons on these forums to have above-average knowledge (Some can make a number, some have no idea), so I give more credence to the opinion of five persons here than, say, five persons with their cracks exposed turning in a zillion parlay cards at the LVH Superbook at 8:55 a.m. on a fall Saturday morning. My exercise in this case essentially is to measure the public's pulse relating to Louisville and Ohio State teams which are both gaining much preseason attention. I have posed this same scenario at three other forums. I suspected the forum responders would have both Louisville and Ohio State at least somewhat overvalued. My suspicions have been validated.
So, much like why does the NFL care how many times a strongman can bench press 225 pounds (After all, he's not going to be bench pressing while taking on a 325-pound offensive lineman), I do exercises to prepare my arsenal for the upcoming season. It is important to weigh what you think about teams against others' perceptions.
At this point in my preseason preparation, it is much more important for me to be able to put my finger on the public's collective "pulse" relating to some individual teams. It doesn't aid my process any to know whether this or that poster likes Oklahoma State -10.5 over Mississippi State at Reliant on opening weekend.
Again, I posed scenarios involving Louisville and Ohio State because of my belief that the public (and I believe the people posting here are generally more sophisicated than the composite bettor) would be giving these teams too much. My belief was validated.
Hopefully, some people find some value in my postings and food for thought. If not, I'll retire back to my rock.
Thanks for responding and good luck this season,
Paul
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