Opening week in College Football always seems to be different than the rest of the season.So I started to look at past opening week results 3 weeks ago and got so involved breaking it all down that I ended up putting close to 20 hours into this effort.I know that it won't be interesting to everyone but I thought that some of these stats were just too good not to share.If you are interested and have any questions I have enough notes to give you further breakdowns if neccesary.
The following info was all extracted from the COVERS NCAAF scoreboard by scrolling past years results dating back to '06 for opening week (170 games).The stats for opening day results go back to '04 and include an extra 9 games.
It seems like betting the under and the favorites is a good recipe for week 1 success but not always as the following stats would seem to suggest.
Favorites are 99-69-2 (58.9%) overall in opening week games.
The UNDER is 92-76-2 (54.7%) overall in opening week games.
The worst year for the favorites was last year when they went 20-20.
The worst year for the UNDER was 06-07 when they went 21-22.
Although the favorites dominated vs. the spread, they were only 7-14 when the spread was between 3 1/2 - 4 1/2.
When the spread was between 5 - 9 1/2 (But not 7), the favorites were 21-5-1. When the spread is exactly 7 the favorites were only 4-6.
When the spread was between 16 1/2 - 21 1/2,the favorites were 19-5-1.
When the spread was between 24 1/2 - 25 1/2 the favorites were 6-0.
Chalk was 7-1 when the spread was between 29 1/2 - 38 1/2 and 0-2 when the spread was over 41.
However when the spread was over 29 and the total was under 54 1/2 the favorites were 7-0.
Although the UNDER dominated opening week, when the total was set at 40 or below the OVER was 4-1.
The OVER also did well (5-0) when the total was set at 45.
When the total was 51 or 51 1/2 the OVER was 7-0 and when the total was between 58-60 the OVER was 6-3.
The UNDER was 8-4 when the total was between 40 1/2 - 42 1/2,and 8-2 when the total was between 45 1/2 - 46 with both OVERs being overtime games.
When the Total was 47 1/2 the UNDER was 4-0 and when the total was between 52 - 57 1/2 the UNDER was 28-14.
Finally with totals between 60 1/2 - 65 the UNDER was 10-2 and when the total was between 60 1/2 - 69 and the spread was below 36 1/2 the UNDER was a perfect 10-0.
Opening day stats and much more as I sift through all of the papers on my desk.