NBA-P: 30-16 (65.2%) +18.25u
MLB: 97-66 (59.8%) +31.61u
MLB-P: 4-1 (80.0%) +3.25u
NFL: 8-8 (50.0%) -1.8u
NCAAF: 2-3 (40.0%) -2.30u
North Carolina -13.5 (-115)
This is a public play on a home favorite, but I don't mind laying the chalk here because believe it or not I see some value in backing NC at less than two TD's. Lousiville hasn't played any competition this season. There win in their only road game (in state) at Kentucky looks more impressive in the box score than it does on paper. They had a 0% TD efficiency in their trips to the red zone. The three TD's they did score were on pass plays of 38, 25, 25 yards - blown coverages and bad tackling mostly. They're 2-2 losing home games to Florida International and Marshal. They're back on the road traveling 10 hours to North Carolina who has been battle tested this season. They've played in Georgia Tech and only lost by 7. They followed that gutsy performance by going up 28-3 in the first half on the road against East Carolina last week. Now they're back home with a record of 4-1 and an early start time against a very bad Lousiville team. Lousiville's QB is recovering from a shoulder injury he suffered two weeks ago. On the other hand, North Carolina's QB Bryn Renner is completing 75% of his passes this season and they have a solid RB in Giovani Bernard. My projections have this game at North Carolina -19 so at -13.5 I see 5.5 points of value. I'll gladly back the home team in this mismatch at a spread under 2 TD's. I don't think Lousiville is the type of team that is capable of a backdoor cover, especially with North Carolina's ability to control the clock. Final Score: North Carolina 34 Lousiville 17.