Totals, 7-5, +1.85
Year, 35-26, +12.30
Brace yourselves, I started capping this card on Monday.
Well, the line is moving in my favor, not sure if that’s a good thing or a bad thing, but I probably would have went this high on this game up to a possession or less. James Madison has gotten off to a quick 3-1 start against a #310 strength of schedule. They got a big rare road win at Dartmouth this year. Last year, road victories came against Delaware (who had 5 wins I believe), Georgia State (who had 10 or 11 wins I believe), and the year before that, they beat a 11 or 12 win Towson on the road. Four road victories in the last two years including this year, against teams w/ close to a 25% winning percentage.
Why do I see value in this line? It’s simple. Oddsmakers are putting a line here based on previous results this season. EKU has played drastically different styles of teams, as has James Madison. In fact, the line indicates that JMU is actually the better squad here. How? They beat middle of the pack NEC member Mount St. Mary’s at home, lost to middle of the pack Big South member VMI on the road, and beat bottom of the IVY league member Dartmouth on the road. Sure, the 100 points scored against Siena in a home victory to start out the year looked impressive, but it’s a totally different style of basketball that will be played tonight. AND, JMU shot a whopping 75% in that game, and Siena was caught looking ahead to Syracuse. Eastern Kentucky opened with two division II opponents to start the year, before going on the road for three tough games. A 20 point loss in it’s first road game to East Tennessee State doesn’t look that bad if you know anything about ETSTU (hands down the favorite to win the Atlantic Sun). UAB’s a top 3 conference USA, and does the 35 point loss at Cameron doesn’t look so bad after Wisconsin’s 24 point loss there last night does it? EKU shot 50% in that 2H as well, which gives them confidence coming into tonight.
A few things on Eastern Kentucky. Their offense is a version of the Princeton, something James Madison hasn’t seen anything close to this year. It’s also something they haven’t had any amount of success against either. Utilizing a ton of backdoor cuts, and screens, allows the outside to open up for the three ball, which is EKU’s specialty, especially at home. EKU returns home here for the first time after a rough 3 game trip with a very winnable game. So, coming into this game, James Madison hasn’t been in a game where they’ve actually had to play a slow it down, half court style defense against any team. This will be extremely different for them, and the first time this year. Having been a product of John Beilein, Neubauer and EKU utilize a 1-3-1 zone a great majority of the game. Again, something drastically different than James Madison has faced this year. Simply put, this is a team that likes to get up and down, and create opportunities on the break. If that isn’t available, they like to drive the lane and get to the bucket. With a slow down Princeton offense, and a 1-3-1 defense, those two options are pretty much taken away.
The problem with EKU this year is that they have not been able to put the ball in the hoop. Primarily, the reason for that is b/c they were on the road facing better competition. The easiest way to correct that? Play a team that has no discipline on the defensive side of the ball, and be paitent, two qualities that EKU exhibits here. Force James Madison to shoot the 3ball, and keep them out of the paint and away from the foul line. The line is skewed, as are the statistics. JMU’s 2nd in the nation in FG %. They have the top three players in the CAA in FG%. They’re scoring 85 ppg. Throw it out the window. I’d venture to believe 50% of their buckets have come from layups due to the teams and styles of play they have gone up against (#310 SOS). Even if this game were to get a little up-tempo, EKU has the depth and balance to do so.
Simply put, these are two teams that have yet to find their identity yet this year, and one of the teams knows what it’s going to do tonight on both sides of the court. I’m not sure James Madison has figured out how to guard the Princeton, nor score against a 1-3-1. One team returns home finally after a three game roady (where it has been awfully good the last few years), and one team goes on the road where it’s been flat out pitiful over the course of the last two years. I’m on the short home chalk…
5* Eastern Kentucky –2
The rest…
3* Penn State –1.5
2* Central Michigan –4.5
2* NC State +9
1* Ohio State +6
1* NC State ML +370
1* Arkansas/Missouri Under 152
1* TCU/Texas Tech Over 135
1* Fordham ML –140
1* Valpo/WMU under 141
1* ML Parlay +250 (Central Michigan ML -, Bradley ML -, Valpo ML -)
GL