Oh, Georgia State. That was cruel. But it also gives us a quintessential example of how lines are different than just a few years ago. The advent of KenPom means that oddsmakers very rarely throw out really "bad" lines. Also, books now make their CBB lines with sharper bettors in mind. Whereas three or four years ago I could've gotten Georgia State at 7 or 7.5, I had to play it at 4. Frustrating, but this is the new normal.
Anyway, diatribe over.
Marist +19 I'm a Hawk grad and die-hard fan, but they're very likely not covering this line. They beat Vermont on Saturday night in a tougher-than-it-looks road game where, had it been lined, they would've been slight underdogs. More importantly, old friend Creighton comes to Hawk Hill on Saturday night. Two years ago, SJU beat then #19 Creighton in a terrific early December game in Philly. Last year, playing with revenge in Omaha, Creighton eviscerated the Hawks in a game that forced me to hit the bottle earlier than I wished. Point is, Creighton is a massive game and SJU probably doesn't have its full focus tonight. Marist is no world-beater, but they're also not nearly as bad as they looked in the Elon debacle. Gut says SJU plods through this one and wins by 11-13.
Valparaiso +12.5 Bryce Drew's group lost a ton from last year's NCAA tournament team, but this is one of the best plug-and-play systems in all of mid-major basketball. Gueye (7 footer) from 'Bama was a big transfer get, and he'll shore up the interior of the defense as well as provide solid rebounding. Illinois hasn't seen a team with any semblance of size yet, and Valpo will bring in Gueye and another big, bruising body in 6'10, 240 Fernandez. Ilini have looked alright in their first two games, but they've allowed two really tiny opponents (Jax State & Alabama State) to collect a combined 39% of offensive rebounds. That's bad, and a team like Valpo will be able to take advantage if this habit continues. Crusaders should have enough to hang around here.
I like a few totals, but we'll see if they're posted later on.
Oh, Georgia State. That was cruel. But it also gives us a quintessential example of how lines are different than just a few years ago. The advent of KenPom means that oddsmakers very rarely throw out really "bad" lines. Also, books now make their CBB lines with sharper bettors in mind. Whereas three or four years ago I could've gotten Georgia State at 7 or 7.5, I had to play it at 4. Frustrating, but this is the new normal.
Anyway, diatribe over.
Marist +19 I'm a Hawk grad and die-hard fan, but they're very likely not covering this line. They beat Vermont on Saturday night in a tougher-than-it-looks road game where, had it been lined, they would've been slight underdogs. More importantly, old friend Creighton comes to Hawk Hill on Saturday night. Two years ago, SJU beat then #19 Creighton in a terrific early December game in Philly. Last year, playing with revenge in Omaha, Creighton eviscerated the Hawks in a game that forced me to hit the bottle earlier than I wished. Point is, Creighton is a massive game and SJU probably doesn't have its full focus tonight. Marist is no world-beater, but they're also not nearly as bad as they looked in the Elon debacle. Gut says SJU plods through this one and wins by 11-13.
Valparaiso +12.5 Bryce Drew's group lost a ton from last year's NCAA tournament team, but this is one of the best plug-and-play systems in all of mid-major basketball. Gueye (7 footer) from 'Bama was a big transfer get, and he'll shore up the interior of the defense as well as provide solid rebounding. Illinois hasn't seen a team with any semblance of size yet, and Valpo will bring in Gueye and another big, bruising body in 6'10, 240 Fernandez. Ilini have looked alright in their first two games, but they've allowed two really tiny opponents (Jax State & Alabama State) to collect a combined 39% of offensive rebounds. That's bad, and a team like Valpo will be able to take advantage if this habit continues. Crusaders should have enough to hang around here.
I like a few totals, but we'll see if they're posted later on.
GTown zone should limit fouls. Wright State is slow and deliberate to begin with, and the tremendous length of the GTown defense should make it awfully difficult for the Raiders to put the ball in the hoop. On the other side, you'll be hard-pressed to find a more fundamentally sound defense than Wright State. Five guys playing as a team at all times. Georgetown often plays to the style of the opponent, and tonight, that style is slooooooooooow.
GTown zone should limit fouls. Wright State is slow and deliberate to begin with, and the tremendous length of the GTown defense should make it awfully difficult for the Raiders to put the ball in the hoop. On the other side, you'll be hard-pressed to find a more fundamentally sound defense than Wright State. Five guys playing as a team at all times. Georgetown often plays to the style of the opponent, and tonight, that style is slooooooooooow.
GL I like the card I am glad you are following nropp and troe also. I think nropp is due and Troe is always consistent.
I don't "follow" anyone.
As you know, though, while all three of us have differing philosophies, we also employ much of the same methodology in capping games. The result, of course, is often being on the same side.
GL I like the card I am glad you are following nropp and troe also. I think nropp is due and Troe is always consistent.
I don't "follow" anyone.
As you know, though, while all three of us have differing philosophies, we also employ much of the same methodology in capping games. The result, of course, is often being on the same side.
As you know, though, while all three of us have differing philosophies, we also employ much of the same methodology in capping games. The result, of course, is often being on the same side.
As you know, though, while all three of us have differing philosophies, we also employ much of the same methodology in capping games. The result, of course, is often being on the same side.
Justtt about another brutal meltdown after CoC (+21.5) was down 48-45 with 6 minutes left to Louisville only to lose by 22; Georgia State down 2 last night with 8 seconds left, only to lose by 6; nearly another one tonight with Valpo, who was down 47-45 with around 4:00 left.
Justtt about another brutal meltdown after CoC (+21.5) was down 48-45 with 6 minutes left to Louisville only to lose by 22; Georgia State down 2 last night with 8 seconds left, only to lose by 6; nearly another one tonight with Valpo, who was down 47-45 with around 4:00 left.
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