25-11 @ 69% for +12.9 Units
Mon, 02/14
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles -4
Tennessee State Tigers are coming into this matchup with the Golden Eagles having lost 5 of their last 6 games and 7 of their last 8 on the road. The team is only 1-4 in its 5 conference road games, losing by an average of 10 ppg in those 4 losses. Golden Eagles, on the other hand, are 5-2 in their last 7 games, playing very good ball right now.
In its last 5 games, Tenn Tech is 4-1 ATS, holding its opponents to 43% from the field and 64 ppg. They’re shooting 44% from the field and also scoring 64 ppg in those games but keep in mind that 3 of those 5 games were against Murray St, Morehead St, and Austin Peay, the top 3 teams in the conference (1-2 against them). Tenn State are 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games, scoring 66 ppg on 40% shooting while giving up 72 ppg, allowing 49% from the floor. They played Austin Peay (#3 in conference) and Murray St (#1 in conf) during that span. Allowing 49% from the field doesn’t bode well for the Tigers, when they’re facing the 3rd best shooting team in the OVC. Tenn Tech has 52.6% EFG% in conference play. In addition, I expect the Golden Eagles to have an advantage on the offensive boards, where they rank 103rd, compared to Tigers’ 324th ranking, securing rebounds on the defensive side. In addition, the Tigers are one of those teams that struggle with turnovers on offense, turning the ball over 23% of their possessions (#297 in NCAAB). This is another factor that will be critical to Tech’s success in winning this game and getting us a cover.
I’ve already mentioned how poorly State has been playing on the road recently. To make matters worse, this is their 3rd straight ‘road game’. Consequently, this is their final road-game of the season prior to finishing it off with 3 straight at home. This is not an easy schedule, and definitely an advantage for Tech.
Finally, the biggest factor in this game is ‘revenge’. A few weeks ago on Jan 22nd, State beat Tech 71-65 on their home court. It was a pretty close game, with State scoring their last 5 points from the FT line to ‘ice’ that one. I expect a different outcome in this one as the Golden Eagles should be able to avenge that loss. Why do I feel confident here? Well, looking at the schedule in detail I’ve noticed an interesting pattern involving Tennessee State. There were 4 occurrences where Tenn St has won the 1st game at home, only to lose the rematch against the same opponent on the road. Here’s the breakdown:
Home Game: vs Eastern Kentucky: Won 62-49
Rematch: @ Eastern Kentucky: Lost 86-72
Home Game: vs Morehead St: Won 70-64 (OT)
Rematch: @ Morehead St: Lost 72-65
Home Game: vs Austin Peay: Won 76-74 (OT)
Rematch: @ Austin Peay: Lost 79-64 (played them this past Saturday)
Home Game: vs Jacksonville St: Won 68-63
Rematch: @ Jacksonville St: Lost 76-73 (OT)
Home Game: vs Tennessee Tech: Won 71-65
Rematch: @ Tennessee Tech: (TODAY)
Hmmm…. So will this pattern continue today? I’m willing to bet that it will. The bottom line is this: Tennessee State is terrible on the road, are playing their 3rd straight away from home, and have been 0-4 in similar ‘rematch’ scenarios so far this season. Golden Eagles are in a much better form right now and will be seeking ‘revenge’ in this one. I’ll gladly lay 4 points here as I expect a comfortable cover.
Good luck!