****this may be a good read if anyone is intereseted in knowing more about my system****
Hey bud, one of the indicators for my system is to look at what the total for the game would look like after the 1H.
Using the Laker's game as an example:
O/U for the game was 209.5, right?
1H line was set at 106.5 (most Laker games have higher 1H, than 2H so no biggie there).
Anyway, 120 was scored in the 1H, right? And I think the O/U for the 2H was 102.5 if I'm not mistaken. So let's say that the over hits in the 2H. That means the total score would have to be a minimum of 120+103=223.
Compare this 223 number to the original line, which was 209.5. That means the original line would be off by 13.5 pts. Not to mention that I had it capped lower to begin with. Anyway, from a statistics perspective, that 223 number is what you call an outlier. If this game were played 100 times, the chances of this line being too high by 13 or too low by 13 isn't all that high.
But don't get carried away with this and just bet the opposite of what the 1H did. It's just one factor. Just something to chew on. But when I talk about my system, that's one of the indicators I look at.
Thanks for the additional info. Have a good night and I'm sure we'll both be here tomorrow.