Before you read this, if you want to know my record, last season I finished up over 20+ units (which is pretty good as about 4-5% of my bankroll equals 1-unit) and this season I am up just under 13-units posted and up almost 20-units overall (posted and non-posted combined). Last season I also created a system that went 37-10 the last three weeks of the college hoops season (all documented) although I didn't bet all those games as I was still testing the system.
I say all that to say I'm not just some poser trying to get attention. I could care less about the attention and just consider us gamblers as a "family" trying to beat the books and feel that we are all in this together. I'm not like many of these numbnuts who starts threads with "system play" and then never even discloses what the system is and disappears in days after the first system posting.
I take no ownership of this system and you can feel free to do whatever you like with this information. If you want to make changes to it or do any other variation of it, feel free and you don't need my permission to do so. Just understand that this is a "system" for a reason and I created it for specific reasons over many years of playing, coaching, and now gambling. This system did awesome last year, but could suck big butt this year I have no idea (although I suspect it will be very good again this year).
If you do consider betting this "system" I suggest you bet ALL of the system plays EVERY TIME, until you either win a ton or give up on it. At one point last year, it was only .500 before it caught fire to finish 37-10. Your only following a system if you bet it every single time there is a play. If you pick and choose when to bet it your just "handicapping" and its no longer a system.
Lastly, please READ all of these posts completely before asking questions as most of your questions will be answered with the information below:
For anyone who missed "THE SYSTEM" last year, here is how it did last year:
Saturday Feb 13: 4-1 #258 Yale -11.5, won by 13 (system loss) #234 UC Riverside -7.5, LOST by 3 (system win) #192 Troy -12, won by 3 (system win) #250 Tenn Tech -10.5, won by 9 (system win) #267 UC Irvine -7, won by 2 (system win)
Sunday Feb 14: 0-1 #197 Central Michigan -14.5, won by 17 (system loss)
Monday Feb 15: 0-2 #195 Austin Peay -7.5, won by 20 (system loss) #187 Arkansas St -7.5, won by 17 (system loss)
Tuesday - NO PLAYS
Wednesday Feb 17: 1-0 #222 UC Northridge -8.5, won by 5 (system win)
Thursday Feb 18: 5-0 #282 Louisiana Monroe -10, LOST by 9 (system win) #198 Louisiana Lafayette -7, won by 2 (system win) #195 Austin Peay -10, won by 5 (system win) #202 Denver -13, won by 5 (system win) #205 Montana St. -12.5, won by 6 (system win)
Friday Feb 19: 1-0 #309 Penn -7 LOST by 7 (system win)
Saturday Feb 20: 15-3 #189 Citadel -10 LOST by 6 (system win) #200 Loyola Maryland -8 LOST by 1 (system win) #180 Davidson -12.5 won by 3 (system win) #201 Manhattan -8 won by 16 (system loss) #217 Ball State -13 won by 16 (system loss) #214 Rice -7 LOST by 11 (system win) #227 Samford -7 won by 6 (system win) #205 Georgia St -9 won by 15 (system loss) #197 Central Michigan -11.5 won by 6 (system win) #209 Radford -9.5 won by 8 (system win) #267 UC Irvine -14 won by 1 (system win) #214 Cal St Fullerton -20 won by 4 (system win) #253 Jacksonville St. -11.5 LOST by 4 (system win) #233 Evansville -7 LOST by 2 (system win) #198 Louisiana Lafayette -11 won by 2 (system win) #234 Northern Arizona -7.5 won by 3 (system win) #188 Boise St -12.5 LOST by 8 (system win) #247 Hawaii -7 LOST by 13 (system win)
Sunday Feb 21 - NO PLAYS
SYSTEM
26-7
from Feb 13th to Feb 21st; Now as you know I am not sure how
Senior Night will influence the system, so this was the end of the
original system to be brought back Feb 12th to Feb 20th of 2011 - but
for kicks we extended it through the rest of the regular season (and
first round of conference tourneys that fit the system) to see if Senior
Nights
and post-season play matter at all
Monday Feb 22: 1-0 #246 Samford -9, LOST by 6 (system win)
Tuesday Feb 23 - NO PLAYS
Wednesday Feb 24: 1-0 #189 Davidson -14, won by 4 (system win)
Thursday Feb 25: 1-0 #202 Arkansas St -13.5, won by 7 (system win)
Friday Feb 26: 0-1 #287 Idaho St -9.5, won by 35 (system loss)
Saturday Feb 27: 3-2 #184 Eastern Michigan -10, won by 6 (system win) #204 Denver -6, won by 16 (system loss) #214 Eastern Illinois -8, won by 5 (system win) #274 Ark Little Rock -7.5, won by 6 (system win) #217 San Diego -9.5, won by 17 (system loss)
Sunday Feb 28 - No Plays
Monday Mar 1 - No Plays
Tuesday Mar 2: 1-0 #205 Austin Peay -12, LOSE by 3 (system win)
Wednesday Mar 3 No Plays
Thursday Mar 4: 1-0 #247 Northern Illinois -11.5, won by 2 (system win)
Saturday Mar 6: 2-0 #308 Penn -12.5, won by 10 (system win) #215 Cal St Fullerton -6.5, LOSE by 6 (system win)
Sunday Mar 7: 1-0 #187 Eastern Michigan -8.5, Win by 6 (system win)
OVERALL RECORD FOR SYSTEM: 37-10
Again, please understand that you might not agree with my reasoning or perimeters for the system (so feel free to create your own) but these system rules are not up for debate. I played and coached basketball at a high level and this system is a creation based partly on my experiences as both a player and coach. This system especially deals (and takes advantage of) the motivation of college level players. Below (in the next post down) is an explanation of what the system rules are and why I created them that way.
Before you read this, if you want to know my record, last season I finished up over 20+ units (which is pretty good as about 4-5% of my bankroll equals 1-unit) and this season I am up just under 13-units posted and up almost 20-units overall (posted and non-posted combined). Last season I also created a system that went 37-10 the last three weeks of the college hoops season (all documented) although I didn't bet all those games as I was still testing the system.
I say all that to say I'm not just some poser trying to get attention. I could care less about the attention and just consider us gamblers as a "family" trying to beat the books and feel that we are all in this together. I'm not like many of these numbnuts who starts threads with "system play" and then never even discloses what the system is and disappears in days after the first system posting.
I take no ownership of this system and you can feel free to do whatever you like with this information. If you want to make changes to it or do any other variation of it, feel free and you don't need my permission to do so. Just understand that this is a "system" for a reason and I created it for specific reasons over many years of playing, coaching, and now gambling. This system did awesome last year, but could suck big butt this year I have no idea (although I suspect it will be very good again this year).
If you do consider betting this "system" I suggest you bet ALL of the system plays EVERY TIME, until you either win a ton or give up on it. At one point last year, it was only .500 before it caught fire to finish 37-10. Your only following a system if you bet it every single time there is a play. If you pick and choose when to bet it your just "handicapping" and its no longer a system.
Lastly, please READ all of these posts completely before asking questions as most of your questions will be answered with the information below:
For anyone who missed "THE SYSTEM" last year, here is how it did last year:
Saturday Feb 13: 4-1 #258 Yale -11.5, won by 13 (system loss) #234 UC Riverside -7.5, LOST by 3 (system win) #192 Troy -12, won by 3 (system win) #250 Tenn Tech -10.5, won by 9 (system win) #267 UC Irvine -7, won by 2 (system win)
Sunday Feb 14: 0-1 #197 Central Michigan -14.5, won by 17 (system loss)
Monday Feb 15: 0-2 #195 Austin Peay -7.5, won by 20 (system loss) #187 Arkansas St -7.5, won by 17 (system loss)
Tuesday - NO PLAYS
Wednesday Feb 17: 1-0 #222 UC Northridge -8.5, won by 5 (system win)
Thursday Feb 18: 5-0 #282 Louisiana Monroe -10, LOST by 9 (system win) #198 Louisiana Lafayette -7, won by 2 (system win) #195 Austin Peay -10, won by 5 (system win) #202 Denver -13, won by 5 (system win) #205 Montana St. -12.5, won by 6 (system win)
Friday Feb 19: 1-0 #309 Penn -7 LOST by 7 (system win)
Saturday Feb 20: 15-3 #189 Citadel -10 LOST by 6 (system win) #200 Loyola Maryland -8 LOST by 1 (system win) #180 Davidson -12.5 won by 3 (system win) #201 Manhattan -8 won by 16 (system loss) #217 Ball State -13 won by 16 (system loss) #214 Rice -7 LOST by 11 (system win) #227 Samford -7 won by 6 (system win) #205 Georgia St -9 won by 15 (system loss) #197 Central Michigan -11.5 won by 6 (system win) #209 Radford -9.5 won by 8 (system win) #267 UC Irvine -14 won by 1 (system win) #214 Cal St Fullerton -20 won by 4 (system win) #253 Jacksonville St. -11.5 LOST by 4 (system win) #233 Evansville -7 LOST by 2 (system win) #198 Louisiana Lafayette -11 won by 2 (system win) #234 Northern Arizona -7.5 won by 3 (system win) #188 Boise St -12.5 LOST by 8 (system win) #247 Hawaii -7 LOST by 13 (system win)
Sunday Feb 21 - NO PLAYS
SYSTEM
26-7
from Feb 13th to Feb 21st; Now as you know I am not sure how
Senior Night will influence the system, so this was the end of the
original system to be brought back Feb 12th to Feb 20th of 2011 - but
for kicks we extended it through the rest of the regular season (and
first round of conference tourneys that fit the system) to see if Senior
Nights
and post-season play matter at all
Monday Feb 22: 1-0 #246 Samford -9, LOST by 6 (system win)
Tuesday Feb 23 - NO PLAYS
Wednesday Feb 24: 1-0 #189 Davidson -14, won by 4 (system win)
Thursday Feb 25: 1-0 #202 Arkansas St -13.5, won by 7 (system win)
Friday Feb 26: 0-1 #287 Idaho St -9.5, won by 35 (system loss)
Saturday Feb 27: 3-2 #184 Eastern Michigan -10, won by 6 (system win) #204 Denver -6, won by 16 (system loss) #214 Eastern Illinois -8, won by 5 (system win) #274 Ark Little Rock -7.5, won by 6 (system win) #217 San Diego -9.5, won by 17 (system loss)
Sunday Feb 28 - No Plays
Monday Mar 1 - No Plays
Tuesday Mar 2: 1-0 #205 Austin Peay -12, LOSE by 3 (system win)
Wednesday Mar 3 No Plays
Thursday Mar 4: 1-0 #247 Northern Illinois -11.5, won by 2 (system win)
Saturday Mar 6: 2-0 #308 Penn -12.5, won by 10 (system win) #215 Cal St Fullerton -6.5, LOSE by 6 (system win)
Sunday Mar 7: 1-0 #187 Eastern Michigan -8.5, Win by 6 (system win)
OVERALL RECORD FOR SYSTEM: 37-10
Again, please understand that you might not agree with my reasoning or perimeters for the system (so feel free to create your own) but these system rules are not up for debate. I played and coached basketball at a high level and this system is a creation based partly on my experiences as both a player and coach. This system especially deals (and takes advantage of) the motivation of college level players. Below (in the next post down) is an explanation of what the system rules are and why I created them that way.
Let me just preface this portion by saying that I don't like systems and
that I love deep research and analysis of the stats (if you have seen
my write-ups you know what I mean). When you see the teams that we will
be betting on, your first inclination is to say NO, we should bet on
them. That is fine, but I don't want to hear it. I'm not saying that
there are a ton of reasons to bet on these teams, but if they are a
system play, they are a system play period. The more you research it,
the more you won't want to bet on these teams and that is a fact. I
don't know how many times someone came into my thread last year and said
something to the effect of "how can you bet that team" or "that team
sucks, etc. etc." only to have that team cover time and time again. If
you like this system, bet it or follow it, and if you don't - just avoid
this thread altogether. Let me repeat, THE MORE YOU RESEARCH THESE
PLAYS, THE MORE YOU WONT WANT TO BET ON THE TEAMS THAT THE SYSTEM SAYS
TO BET ON! Keep that in mind as you read the next two posts. Here are
the system rules:
PLAY AGAINST ANY TEAM THAT:
1. IS RANKED OUTSIDE OF KENPOM'S TOP 180
The number 180 was basically chosen to represent the bottom half of teams
in the country. Most (if not all) of these teams are not ranked, are
rarely on tv, and most college bettors have STRONG opinions (mostly
negative) about these teams (making them the strongest candidates for your money by the way).
Speaking of negative options of teams (and its the most important aspect
of this system), I bet on Louisiana Lafayette
+8.5 at the beginning of season when they were at Houston. Lafayette
was UP 6 with 4
minutes to go and managed to lose the game by THIRTEEN points. They
committed a foul on Houston's last 6 possessions and basically played
one of the dumbest final 5 minutes I have EVER seen in a college
basketball game. That game was November 23rd and I haven't bet on them
since. Every time I see their name on the card I remember
how they screwed me and I get pissed and I immediately move to the next
game. Many gamblers (yourself include) have a few teams (especially
the sucky ones) that you (and me) feel this way about because of some
screw job
earlier in the season.
This is why there is so much value in these
games at the end of the season. Not many gamblers want to bet on these
sucky teams, especially when they can be betting on the Duke's, Uconn's,
and Texas' of the world. For that reason they lines aren't bet into the
correct number like so many of the more "popular" game are. Not only
that, but many gamblers can't wait to bet against these teams they know
"suck" (or have a grudge against) so instead of the number correcting
itself (or atleast holding form at the opening line) the number actually
moves towards the favorite giving us even more value in taking the
points.
* Side Note - The strength of the system dips significantly when you go
lower than 180 (i.e. 179 or better) and doesn't improve much at all when
you restrict it to only the top 200 or worse.
AND
2. IS AT HOME
The theory behind this is that the bottom half of teams in Kenpom's rankings do
not deserve the number of points that linemakers award better teams when
they play at home. It is certainly one thing to award the normal 4-5
points for homecourt advantage to teams like Duke and other power conference
teams, but its another thing to award 4-5 points to the South Alabama
and UNC Greensboro's of the world, this is an inherent flaw in
linemaking for bottom tier teams.
My first argument is the South
Alabama's shouldn't get those 4-5 points just because they are home (it
should be obvious why, but I'll explain more in a bit).
Next (and please remember that I start the system in the last 2-3 weeks
of
the season, last year it was began on Saturday Feb 13th, this season it
will be Saturday Feb 12th), at this point of the season, motivation is
VERY SUSPECT for these bottom level teams.
Being at home (which
everyone thinks is a bonus) is actually a negative at this point of the
season when your not truly playing for anything (post-season tourney and
such and some won't even qualify for their own conferences post-season
tourney). When you are home there are tons of distractions (friends,
family, girls, girls, girls, girls, etc.) and its very hard to get "up"
for games (especially games against other sucky, or even more sucky
teams,
that you should beat and such as is used in my system).
Road trips, on
the other hand, often solidify teams. Most of the time, coaches
confiscate players cell phones and they are forced to bond with one
another and focus on the game at hand. Also, when these road teams are
big underdogs they most often have a revenge factor and a familiarity
with their opponent as they have already played them once this season (and lost).
All of these factors are RARELY reflected in the line. Last season,
most (if not almost every single time) the line WENT UP towards the
favorite giving us yet again even more value with the underdog.
I
repeat again that being home isn't nearly the advantage for these teams
that most bettors believe and the system took advantage of this flaw to
the tune of 37-10 last season.
AND
3. IS FAVORED BY 6.5 POINTS OR MORE
The line, 6.5 or more, was based on a few factors. First, this makes
the spread a 3-possession game and I have always found that this is a good
number to receive points with (or better) as depending on the situation
and time of the game, more often than not, teams will either foul or not
foul based on whether its a two possession game or not (obviously there
are plenty of times that a team will or won't but when you get atleast
6.5 you have an advantage). Many times last season a team that we bet
on with the system fouled and extended games and were able to get
late 3's or layups against non-fouling defenses for system covers or
other times when we were getting 10+ or more, our team didn't foul and
let the opponents run out the clock while still covering a large spread
so the system covers that way even more.
Also, when the line
is set at 6.5 or higher it often times means a few other things. One, that
public perception, and more importantly, the perception of the players of the home team is
that they SHOULD win this game and dominate. Two, most of the time, when
a team that is outside of Kenpom's top 180 is favored by more than 6.5
its because they have already won on their upcoming opponent's
homecourt. This fact brings a lackadaisical attitude to the home team
while the focused road team has a bit of revenge on their mind (again
please note that almost all of the team's outside of Kenpom's top 180
has no dreams of post-season play and is essentially "playing out the
string" of games and trying to get the season over as quickly as
possible).
Let me just preface this portion by saying that I don't like systems and
that I love deep research and analysis of the stats (if you have seen
my write-ups you know what I mean). When you see the teams that we will
be betting on, your first inclination is to say NO, we should bet on
them. That is fine, but I don't want to hear it. I'm not saying that
there are a ton of reasons to bet on these teams, but if they are a
system play, they are a system play period. The more you research it,
the more you won't want to bet on these teams and that is a fact. I
don't know how many times someone came into my thread last year and said
something to the effect of "how can you bet that team" or "that team
sucks, etc. etc." only to have that team cover time and time again. If
you like this system, bet it or follow it, and if you don't - just avoid
this thread altogether. Let me repeat, THE MORE YOU RESEARCH THESE
PLAYS, THE MORE YOU WONT WANT TO BET ON THE TEAMS THAT THE SYSTEM SAYS
TO BET ON! Keep that in mind as you read the next two posts. Here are
the system rules:
PLAY AGAINST ANY TEAM THAT:
1. IS RANKED OUTSIDE OF KENPOM'S TOP 180
The number 180 was basically chosen to represent the bottom half of teams
in the country. Most (if not all) of these teams are not ranked, are
rarely on tv, and most college bettors have STRONG opinions (mostly
negative) about these teams (making them the strongest candidates for your money by the way).
Speaking of negative options of teams (and its the most important aspect
of this system), I bet on Louisiana Lafayette
+8.5 at the beginning of season when they were at Houston. Lafayette
was UP 6 with 4
minutes to go and managed to lose the game by THIRTEEN points. They
committed a foul on Houston's last 6 possessions and basically played
one of the dumbest final 5 minutes I have EVER seen in a college
basketball game. That game was November 23rd and I haven't bet on them
since. Every time I see their name on the card I remember
how they screwed me and I get pissed and I immediately move to the next
game. Many gamblers (yourself include) have a few teams (especially
the sucky ones) that you (and me) feel this way about because of some
screw job
earlier in the season.
This is why there is so much value in these
games at the end of the season. Not many gamblers want to bet on these
sucky teams, especially when they can be betting on the Duke's, Uconn's,
and Texas' of the world. For that reason they lines aren't bet into the
correct number like so many of the more "popular" game are. Not only
that, but many gamblers can't wait to bet against these teams they know
"suck" (or have a grudge against) so instead of the number correcting
itself (or atleast holding form at the opening line) the number actually
moves towards the favorite giving us even more value in taking the
points.
* Side Note - The strength of the system dips significantly when you go
lower than 180 (i.e. 179 or better) and doesn't improve much at all when
you restrict it to only the top 200 or worse.
AND
2. IS AT HOME
The theory behind this is that the bottom half of teams in Kenpom's rankings do
not deserve the number of points that linemakers award better teams when
they play at home. It is certainly one thing to award the normal 4-5
points for homecourt advantage to teams like Duke and other power conference
teams, but its another thing to award 4-5 points to the South Alabama
and UNC Greensboro's of the world, this is an inherent flaw in
linemaking for bottom tier teams.
My first argument is the South
Alabama's shouldn't get those 4-5 points just because they are home (it
should be obvious why, but I'll explain more in a bit).
Next (and please remember that I start the system in the last 2-3 weeks
of
the season, last year it was began on Saturday Feb 13th, this season it
will be Saturday Feb 12th), at this point of the season, motivation is
VERY SUSPECT for these bottom level teams.
Being at home (which
everyone thinks is a bonus) is actually a negative at this point of the
season when your not truly playing for anything (post-season tourney and
such and some won't even qualify for their own conferences post-season
tourney). When you are home there are tons of distractions (friends,
family, girls, girls, girls, girls, etc.) and its very hard to get "up"
for games (especially games against other sucky, or even more sucky
teams,
that you should beat and such as is used in my system).
Road trips, on
the other hand, often solidify teams. Most of the time, coaches
confiscate players cell phones and they are forced to bond with one
another and focus on the game at hand. Also, when these road teams are
big underdogs they most often have a revenge factor and a familiarity
with their opponent as they have already played them once this season (and lost).
All of these factors are RARELY reflected in the line. Last season,
most (if not almost every single time) the line WENT UP towards the
favorite giving us yet again even more value with the underdog.
I
repeat again that being home isn't nearly the advantage for these teams
that most bettors believe and the system took advantage of this flaw to
the tune of 37-10 last season.
AND
3. IS FAVORED BY 6.5 POINTS OR MORE
The line, 6.5 or more, was based on a few factors. First, this makes
the spread a 3-possession game and I have always found that this is a good
number to receive points with (or better) as depending on the situation
and time of the game, more often than not, teams will either foul or not
foul based on whether its a two possession game or not (obviously there
are plenty of times that a team will or won't but when you get atleast
6.5 you have an advantage). Many times last season a team that we bet
on with the system fouled and extended games and were able to get
late 3's or layups against non-fouling defenses for system covers or
other times when we were getting 10+ or more, our team didn't foul and
let the opponents run out the clock while still covering a large spread
so the system covers that way even more.
Also, when the line
is set at 6.5 or higher it often times means a few other things. One, that
public perception, and more importantly, the perception of the players of the home team is
that they SHOULD win this game and dominate. Two, most of the time, when
a team that is outside of Kenpom's top 180 is favored by more than 6.5
its because they have already won on their upcoming opponent's
homecourt. This fact brings a lackadaisical attitude to the home team
while the focused road team has a bit of revenge on their mind (again
please note that almost all of the team's outside of Kenpom's top 180
has no dreams of post-season play and is essentially "playing out the
string" of games and trying to get the season over as quickly as
possible).
*LAST IMPORTANT NOTE - One of this system's strengths is that it plays
on public perception BIGTIME. What I mean by this is that once a bettor
has been burned by, let's say, The Citadel, they are most likely not
going to bet on them again and will in fact be looking for reasons to
bet against them, remember how sucky they were for them when they bet on
them. For this reason, we DO NOT include teams that don't have their
games with regular lines (meaning that ALL of there games DONT have betting lines). So teams from the Atlantic East, Atlantic
Sun, Great West, Northeast, Patriot League, Southland, Southwestern
Atlantic, and Summit conference aren't system plays.
Again, this is
because the system is successful mainly because it takes advantage of
betters' preconceived beliefs about certain teams. We already know that
"squares" or "public betters" always prefer to bet on favorites but
they also hold grudges and that is why I like this system so much. If a
bettor has never bet on a game involving American University or North
Carolina Central, how can they have an options or "grudges" with which
we can take advantage of?
Ask any "sharp" or linesmaker or anyone in the sports gambling business
and they will tell you that a system is at its best when it has a few,
concrete, system rules and that is it. Whenever you begin adding more
and more stipulations, the strength of the system goes down. So again,
this system is simply:
BET AGAINST ANY TEAM THAT:
1. IS OUTSIDE KENPOMS TOP 180
AND
2. IS AT HOME
AND
3. IS A 6.5 OR MORE FAVORITE
So why am I posting this now? One of my best buds and gambling partner
has been telling me that we should start the system earlier. I am
hesitant, as I know from experience that its in those last 2-3 weeks of a
"lost" season, that motivation drops and players "quit" on the coach
and season. I believe its one of the reasons why this system was so
excellent last year. As I stated above, I plan to start this system on
Feb 12th (and I'll be betting all the system plays) but he convinced me
to start tracking (and betting) it today. Here is how it has done so
far: 3-0 with 2 straight-up dog wins
#293 Samford -6.5, LOST by 19 (system win)
#184 Miami (OH) -6.5, LOST by 5 (system win)
#226 Bowling Green -7.5 won by 5 (system win)
There is one more system play tonight and its
PLAY AGAINST #259 Portland St. -9 at home against Sac St
I'm not saying you should play it (although I will be), and I still am
not officially starting "THE SYSTEM" until Feb 12th as scheduled, but my
friend might be right and the system might be just as strong now as it
will be in two weeks. I'll be making threads and tracking it between
now and then.
Let me say again, I'm not saying to you SHOULD bet this play, but if you
have read these three posts and feel its a good option, go ahead. If
you have doubts, you'll probably just jinx it anyway so just sit back
and watch and see how it does these two weeks leading into the
"official" start of the system.
*LAST IMPORTANT NOTE - One of this system's strengths is that it plays
on public perception BIGTIME. What I mean by this is that once a bettor
has been burned by, let's say, The Citadel, they are most likely not
going to bet on them again and will in fact be looking for reasons to
bet against them, remember how sucky they were for them when they bet on
them. For this reason, we DO NOT include teams that don't have their
games with regular lines (meaning that ALL of there games DONT have betting lines). So teams from the Atlantic East, Atlantic
Sun, Great West, Northeast, Patriot League, Southland, Southwestern
Atlantic, and Summit conference aren't system plays.
Again, this is
because the system is successful mainly because it takes advantage of
betters' preconceived beliefs about certain teams. We already know that
"squares" or "public betters" always prefer to bet on favorites but
they also hold grudges and that is why I like this system so much. If a
bettor has never bet on a game involving American University or North
Carolina Central, how can they have an options or "grudges" with which
we can take advantage of?
Ask any "sharp" or linesmaker or anyone in the sports gambling business
and they will tell you that a system is at its best when it has a few,
concrete, system rules and that is it. Whenever you begin adding more
and more stipulations, the strength of the system goes down. So again,
this system is simply:
BET AGAINST ANY TEAM THAT:
1. IS OUTSIDE KENPOMS TOP 180
AND
2. IS AT HOME
AND
3. IS A 6.5 OR MORE FAVORITE
So why am I posting this now? One of my best buds and gambling partner
has been telling me that we should start the system earlier. I am
hesitant, as I know from experience that its in those last 2-3 weeks of a
"lost" season, that motivation drops and players "quit" on the coach
and season. I believe its one of the reasons why this system was so
excellent last year. As I stated above, I plan to start this system on
Feb 12th (and I'll be betting all the system plays) but he convinced me
to start tracking (and betting) it today. Here is how it has done so
far: 3-0 with 2 straight-up dog wins
#293 Samford -6.5, LOST by 19 (system win)
#184 Miami (OH) -6.5, LOST by 5 (system win)
#226 Bowling Green -7.5 won by 5 (system win)
There is one more system play tonight and its
PLAY AGAINST #259 Portland St. -9 at home against Sac St
I'm not saying you should play it (although I will be), and I still am
not officially starting "THE SYSTEM" until Feb 12th as scheduled, but my
friend might be right and the system might be just as strong now as it
will be in two weeks. I'll be making threads and tracking it between
now and then.
Let me say again, I'm not saying to you SHOULD bet this play, but if you
have read these three posts and feel its a good option, go ahead. If
you have doubts, you'll probably just jinx it anyway so just sit back
and watch and see how it does these two weeks leading into the
"official" start of the system.
I had it printed out from last year, and actually dug it out and showed it to my brother yesterday. awesome kine!!! i cant wait till it wins again this season.
I had it printed out from last year, and actually dug it out and showed it to my brother yesterday. awesome kine!!! i cant wait till it wins again this season.
Portland State -8.5 fits the fade criteria tonight
Yes it does - its actually +9 on Matchbook. Again, I'm betting it, but the official system plays aren't until Feb 12th. But if you wanted to start the system early, you would be 3-0 going into this game tonight.
Portland State -8.5 fits the fade criteria tonight
Yes it does - its actually +9 on Matchbook. Again, I'm betting it, but the official system plays aren't until Feb 12th. But if you wanted to start the system early, you would be 3-0 going into this game tonight.
Portland State -8.5 fits the fade criteria tonight
And the funny thing is that I already researched that game and wanted no part of Sac St! Gotta love the system - often flies against what you would normally do (and for most bettors that is definitely a good thing)
Portland State -8.5 fits the fade criteria tonight
And the funny thing is that I already researched that game and wanted no part of Sac St! Gotta love the system - often flies against what you would normally do (and for most bettors that is definitely a good thing)
Awesome KP, I vaguely remember reading about this last year... I already have Sac St +8.5 on a parlay that's alive, but I will also jump on and take them straight. Thanks alot, you are one of the best on here and enjoy your posts!
Awesome KP, I vaguely remember reading about this last year... I already have Sac St +8.5 on a parlay that's alive, but I will also jump on and take them straight. Thanks alot, you are one of the best on here and enjoy your posts!
loved the system last year although for me i just wanted to see how it did and knowing how well it was last year, i will most likely hop on board...you the man KP
loved the system last year although for me i just wanted to see how it did and knowing how well it was last year, i will most likely hop on board...you the man KP
Appreciate it Kine for actually explaining your system. Very few people on here do, especially when they get hot for a bit, then cold and you never knew what the system was to begin with. This is my first year actually betting on NCAAB (mainly do NBA), so look forward to being apart of your system this year. BOL.
Appreciate it Kine for actually explaining your system. Very few people on here do, especially when they get hot for a bit, then cold and you never knew what the system was to begin with. This is my first year actually betting on NCAAB (mainly do NBA), so look forward to being apart of your system this year. BOL.
Unless there is a miracle, the "pre" system will go 3-1 today.
There are no "pre" system plays tomorrow - although Akron -9 against Central Michigan ALMOST applies (Akron is #171), so what that tells me is that I'm going to study that game and see if I can see enough reasons to back CMU tomorrow
Unless there is a miracle, the "pre" system will go 3-1 today.
There are no "pre" system plays tomorrow - although Akron -9 against Central Michigan ALMOST applies (Akron is #171), so what that tells me is that I'm going to study that game and see if I can see enough reasons to back CMU tomorrow
been looking for this post since CBB started this season. I remember it very well from last year and cant thank u enough for bringing it to our attention once again.
been looking for this post since CBB started this season. I remember it very well from last year and cant thank u enough for bringing it to our attention once again.
I think I understand that you are going against the "sucky" team. But in your explanation, you seem to say it's the sucky team is the one that will have the extra value. ???????
You say,
Many gamblers (yourself include) have a few teams (especially the sucky ones) that you (and me) feel this way about because of some screw job earlier in the season.
This is why there is so much value in these games at the end of the season. Not many gamblers want to bet on these sucky teams, especially when they can be betting on the Duke's, Uconn's, and Texas' of the world. For that reason they lines aren't bet into the correct number like so many of the more "popular" game are. Not only that, but many gamblers can't wait to bet against these teams they know "suck" (or have a grudge against) so instead of the number correcting itself (or atleast holding form at the opening line) the number actually moves towards the favorite giving us even more value in taking the points.
I think I understand that you are going against the "sucky" team. But in your explanation, you seem to say it's the sucky team is the one that will have the extra value. ???????
You say,
Many gamblers (yourself include) have a few teams (especially the sucky ones) that you (and me) feel this way about because of some screw job earlier in the season.
This is why there is so much value in these games at the end of the season. Not many gamblers want to bet on these sucky teams, especially when they can be betting on the Duke's, Uconn's, and Texas' of the world. For that reason they lines aren't bet into the correct number like so many of the more "popular" game are. Not only that, but many gamblers can't wait to bet against these teams they know "suck" (or have a grudge against) so instead of the number correcting itself (or atleast holding form at the opening line) the number actually moves towards the favorite giving us even more value in taking the points.
I think I understand that you are going against the "sucky" team. But in your explanation, you seem to say it's the sucky team is the one that will have the extra value. ???????
You say,
Many gamblers (yourself include) have a few teams (especially the sucky ones) that you (and me) feel this way about because of some screw job earlier in the season.
This is why there is so much value in these games at the end of the season. Not many gamblers want to bet on these sucky teams, especially when they can be betting on the Duke's, Uconn's, and Texas' of the world. For that reason they lines aren't bet into the correct number like so many of the more "popular" game are. Not only that, but many gamblers can't wait to bet against these teams they know "suck" (or have a grudge against) so instead of the number correcting itself (or atleast holding form at the opening line) the number actually moves towards the favorite giving us even more value in taking the points.
Good question: Both teams "suck" if by definition of suck we say they are the bottom half of the 345 DI schools. So if a team is 6.5 dog to a team that is not in Kenpom's 180 - they definitely "suck". Let's use UNC Greensboro today for example. They started the year 0-15 (with a tough schedule mind you) and were 3-16 coming into today. I know alot of bettors even on this site were playing them to win their first game for a bunch of games before they actually did. All those bettors know that Greensboro "sucks" and most will not want to touch them the rest of the year. What those people are "FORGETTING" is that Samford sucks too. The Samford/Greenboro line opened and -5 and Samford got POUNDED into a 6.5 favorite. The argument is that most of those people have a predisposition to say Greensboro sucks. But what the system is telling is that Samford sucks as well and they shouldn't be a 6.5 favorite (even at home) in hardly any situation.
So the true value actually lies with the "suckier" of the two teams, Greensboro, but only because of a) the public perception of Greensboro and b) Samford gets too much credit for being the home team. *And I would add c) they are already know this is a lost season and are "wearing down" or "quitting" on the season and they have now lost 6 of 7 with 5 of those 6 losses coming by double figures.
So today, gamblers bet Samford all the way up to 6.5 favorite from 5 despite the fact that they had gotten destroyed in 5 of their last 6 games just because of the fact that they were home and that they were playing Greensboro. Hope that clears it up a bit. I will try to articulate this a bit further on future postings.
I think I understand that you are going against the "sucky" team. But in your explanation, you seem to say it's the sucky team is the one that will have the extra value. ???????
You say,
Many gamblers (yourself include) have a few teams (especially the sucky ones) that you (and me) feel this way about because of some screw job earlier in the season.
This is why there is so much value in these games at the end of the season. Not many gamblers want to bet on these sucky teams, especially when they can be betting on the Duke's, Uconn's, and Texas' of the world. For that reason they lines aren't bet into the correct number like so many of the more "popular" game are. Not only that, but many gamblers can't wait to bet against these teams they know "suck" (or have a grudge against) so instead of the number correcting itself (or atleast holding form at the opening line) the number actually moves towards the favorite giving us even more value in taking the points.
Good question: Both teams "suck" if by definition of suck we say they are the bottom half of the 345 DI schools. So if a team is 6.5 dog to a team that is not in Kenpom's 180 - they definitely "suck". Let's use UNC Greensboro today for example. They started the year 0-15 (with a tough schedule mind you) and were 3-16 coming into today. I know alot of bettors even on this site were playing them to win their first game for a bunch of games before they actually did. All those bettors know that Greensboro "sucks" and most will not want to touch them the rest of the year. What those people are "FORGETTING" is that Samford sucks too. The Samford/Greenboro line opened and -5 and Samford got POUNDED into a 6.5 favorite. The argument is that most of those people have a predisposition to say Greensboro sucks. But what the system is telling is that Samford sucks as well and they shouldn't be a 6.5 favorite (even at home) in hardly any situation.
So the true value actually lies with the "suckier" of the two teams, Greensboro, but only because of a) the public perception of Greensboro and b) Samford gets too much credit for being the home team. *And I would add c) they are already know this is a lost season and are "wearing down" or "quitting" on the season and they have now lost 6 of 7 with 5 of those 6 losses coming by double figures.
So today, gamblers bet Samford all the way up to 6.5 favorite from 5 despite the fact that they had gotten destroyed in 5 of their last 6 games just because of the fact that they were home and that they were playing Greensboro. Hope that clears it up a bit. I will try to articulate this a bit further on future postings.
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