Straight up anyways. The winner of this game is going to be the next National Champ. Butler or MSU ( Minus Lucas ) have 0 chance to beat either of these 2 teams. The line for the championship will be 5+ and you could even see around 8 if Duke and Butler win.
Whatever side you like in this game, save yourself the juice and play:
Straight up anyways. The winner of this game is going to be the next National Champ. Butler or MSU ( Minus Lucas ) have 0 chance to beat either of these 2 teams. The line for the championship will be 5+ and you could even see around 8 if Duke and Butler win.
Whatever side you like in this game, save yourself the juice and play:
Straight up anyways. The winner of this game is going to be the next National Champ. Butler or MSU ( Minus Lucas ) have 0 chance to beat either of these 2 teams. The line for the championship will be 5+ and you could even see around 8 if Duke and Butler win.
Whatever side you like in this game, save yourself the juice and play:
Duke + 145 OR
West Virigina + 275
Mathematically, this doesn't make sense.
Think about it like this.
If you play Duke +145 you can risk $100 to make $145.
Or you could play Duke ML vs. WV ($100 to win $65). If the championship game is, as you say, in the -5 range, the ML will be about -205. So if you take your $165 from the first game and play the ML on Duke in the finals, you would make $255, for a profit of $155. So, playing the ML on Duke each game gives you $10 more for every $100 bet, under your -5 theory.
Straight up anyways. The winner of this game is going to be the next National Champ. Butler or MSU ( Minus Lucas ) have 0 chance to beat either of these 2 teams. The line for the championship will be 5+ and you could even see around 8 if Duke and Butler win.
Whatever side you like in this game, save yourself the juice and play:
Duke + 145 OR
West Virigina + 275
Mathematically, this doesn't make sense.
Think about it like this.
If you play Duke +145 you can risk $100 to make $145.
Or you could play Duke ML vs. WV ($100 to win $65). If the championship game is, as you say, in the -5 range, the ML will be about -205. So if you take your $165 from the first game and play the ML on Duke in the finals, you would make $255, for a profit of $155. So, playing the ML on Duke each game gives you $10 more for every $100 bet, under your -5 theory.
If you play Duke +145 you can risk $100 to make $145.
Or you could play Duke ML vs. WV ($100 to win $65). If the championship game is, as you say, in the -5 range, the ML will be about -205. So if you take your $165 from the first game and play the ML on Duke in the finals, you would make $255, for a profit of $155. So, playing the ML on Duke each game gives you $10 more for every $100 bet, under your -5 theory.
If you play Duke +145 you can risk $100 to make $145.
Or you could play Duke ML vs. WV ($100 to win $65). If the championship game is, as you say, in the -5 range, the ML will be about -205. So if you take your $165 from the first game and play the ML on Duke in the finals, you would make $255, for a profit of $155. So, playing the ML on Duke each game gives you $10 more for every $100 bet, under your -5 theory.
1st your risk over the 2 Duke games now becomes $165 instead of $100
2nd, if the the ML was - 205ish in the title game (165 / 2.05) you would yeild only $ 80.00 in that game meaning you would produce only $ 245.00 ($165.00 + $80.00) over those 2 games, NOT $255.00.
1st your risk over the 2 Duke games now becomes $165 instead of $100
2nd, if the the ML was - 205ish in the title game (165 / 2.05) you would yeild only $ 80.00 in that game meaning you would produce only $ 245.00 ($165.00 + $80.00) over those 2 games, NOT $255.00.
If you play Duke +145 you can risk $100 to make $145.
Or you could play Duke ML vs. WV ($100 to win $65). If the championship game is, as you say, in the -5 range, the ML will be about -205. So if you take your $165 from the first game and play the ML on Duke in the finals, you would make $255, for a profit of $155. So, playing the ML on Duke each game gives you $10 more for every $100 bet, under your -5 theory.
Your effort is appreciated but it makes no sense. I may have not clearly stated " at least 5 points " .
The math makes sense if you believe Duke will be -205 in the finals. I am assuming Duke will be 7-8 point favorites no matter who they play, which is nowhere near -205 and WVA will be around 5.
Your theory again falls short with West Virgina:
Risk $100 @ $135 = $235
Risk $235 @ -205 = $114 win + $235 = $349
You can get WVA for +275 right now. $100 +275 = $375
If you play Duke +145 you can risk $100 to make $145.
Or you could play Duke ML vs. WV ($100 to win $65). If the championship game is, as you say, in the -5 range, the ML will be about -205. So if you take your $165 from the first game and play the ML on Duke in the finals, you would make $255, for a profit of $155. So, playing the ML on Duke each game gives you $10 more for every $100 bet, under your -5 theory.
Your effort is appreciated but it makes no sense. I may have not clearly stated " at least 5 points " .
The math makes sense if you believe Duke will be -205 in the finals. I am assuming Duke will be 7-8 point favorites no matter who they play, which is nowhere near -205 and WVA will be around 5.
Your theory again falls short with West Virgina:
Risk $100 @ $135 = $235
Risk $235 @ -205 = $114 win + $235 = $349
You can get WVA for +275 right now. $100 +275 = $375
1st your risk over the 2 Duke games now becomes $165 instead of $100
2nd, if the the ML was - 205ish in the title game (165 / 2.05) you would yeild only $ 80.00 in that game meaning you would produce only $ 245.00 ($165.00 + $80.00) over those 2 games, NOT $255.00.
1) Your original risk is still $100. Yiou started with $100 on Duke ML vs. WV to make $65. So you now have $165 if Duke wins (if they lose, you lost $100, the same amount you lost on the future bet).
2) As for number two, that is where you are right, but not for the spread reasons. I was using the matchbook number of -190 for both, as opposed to 190/210.
1st your risk over the 2 Duke games now becomes $165 instead of $100
2nd, if the the ML was - 205ish in the title game (165 / 2.05) you would yeild only $ 80.00 in that game meaning you would produce only $ 245.00 ($165.00 + $80.00) over those 2 games, NOT $255.00.
1) Your original risk is still $100. Yiou started with $100 on Duke ML vs. WV to make $65. So you now have $165 if Duke wins (if they lose, you lost $100, the same amount you lost on the future bet).
2) As for number two, that is where you are right, but not for the spread reasons. I was using the matchbook number of -190 for both, as opposed to 190/210.
Your effort is appreciated but it makes no sense. I may have not clearly stated " at least 5 points " .
The math makes sense if you believe Duke will be -205 in the finals. I am assuming Duke will be 7-8 point favorites no matter who they play, which is nowhere near -205 and WVA will be around 5.
Your theory again falls short with West Virgina:
Risk $100 @ $135 = $235
Risk $235 @ -205 = $114 win + $235 = $349
You can get WVA for +275 right now. $100 +275 = $375
Well, this is where we disagree. I don't think there is any way (absent injury), you see Duke or WV a 7 point favorite and certainly not -240 favorite. I see a ML of less than -200 (on matchbook) no matter who wins either game.
If you really think the line is going to be higher, you are correct to bet the team you think wins Duke/WV but I think you are doing yourself a disservice in terms of math calculations.
Your effort is appreciated but it makes no sense. I may have not clearly stated " at least 5 points " .
The math makes sense if you believe Duke will be -205 in the finals. I am assuming Duke will be 7-8 point favorites no matter who they play, which is nowhere near -205 and WVA will be around 5.
Your theory again falls short with West Virgina:
Risk $100 @ $135 = $235
Risk $235 @ -205 = $114 win + $235 = $349
You can get WVA for +275 right now. $100 +275 = $375
Well, this is where we disagree. I don't think there is any way (absent injury), you see Duke or WV a 7 point favorite and certainly not -240 favorite. I see a ML of less than -200 (on matchbook) no matter who wins either game.
If you really think the line is going to be higher, you are correct to bet the team you think wins Duke/WV but I think you are doing yourself a disservice in terms of math calculations.
If you're that confident in your theory, just bet both Duke and WVU to win it all at those odds and then you'll "guarentee" yourself winnings, however, saying that Butler and MSU have 0 chance of winning is downright laughable.
If you're that confident in your theory, just bet both Duke and WVU to win it all at those odds and then you'll "guarentee" yourself winnings, however, saying that Butler and MSU have 0 chance of winning is downright laughable.
Well, this is where we disagree. I don't think there is any way (absent injury), you see Duke or WV a 7 point favorite and certainly not -240 favorite. I see a ML of less than -200 (on matchbook) no matter who wins either game.
If you really think the line is going to be higher, you are correct to bet the team you think wins Duke/WV but I think you are doing yourself a disservice in terms of math calculations.
You obviously aren't reading my posts.
I said " I believe Duke will be a 7-8 point favorite and West Virgina around 5.
If Duke wins and opens as a 5 point favorite or lower.... the books are going to have open up another channel for more Duke money to flow in. I'm not saying they should be, I just know what it will be.
I agree if WVA wins, we might get a 4-5 line but nothing under that.
Well, this is where we disagree. I don't think there is any way (absent injury), you see Duke or WV a 7 point favorite and certainly not -240 favorite. I see a ML of less than -200 (on matchbook) no matter who wins either game.
If you really think the line is going to be higher, you are correct to bet the team you think wins Duke/WV but I think you are doing yourself a disservice in terms of math calculations.
You obviously aren't reading my posts.
I said " I believe Duke will be a 7-8 point favorite and West Virgina around 5.
If Duke wins and opens as a 5 point favorite or lower.... the books are going to have open up another channel for more Duke money to flow in. I'm not saying they should be, I just know what it will be.
I agree if WVA wins, we might get a 4-5 line but nothing under that.
I said " I believe Duke will be a 7-8 point favorite and West Virgina around 5.
If Duke wins and opens as a 5 point favorite or lower.... the books are going to have open up another channel for more Duke money to flow in. I'm not saying they should be, I just know what it will be.
I agree if WVA wins, we might get a 4-5 line but nothing under that.
I think you will be surprised, both by the line and the money line. Keep in mind that MLs for championship games are traditionally lower than regular season, and will be even less if Butler wins because they do tie into the totals.
I said " I believe Duke will be a 7-8 point favorite and West Virgina around 5.
If Duke wins and opens as a 5 point favorite or lower.... the books are going to have open up another channel for more Duke money to flow in. I'm not saying they should be, I just know what it will be.
I agree if WVA wins, we might get a 4-5 line but nothing under that.
I think you will be surprised, both by the line and the money line. Keep in mind that MLs for championship games are traditionally lower than regular season, and will be even less if Butler wins because they do tie into the totals.
I think you will be surprised, both by the line and the money line. Keep in mind that MLs for championship games are traditionally lower than regular season, and will be even less if Butler wins because they do tie into the totals.
My guess on lines and MLs
Duke-4.5 Butler ML of -175
Duke -5 Mich State -190
WV -2.5 Butler ML of -130
WV -2 Mich State -125
Duke - MSU (5) ------> would be a 95% consensus on the Blue Devils. I guess we will have to wait and see. I don't think in the biggest game of the year for College Sports, the books would expose themselves to so much risk.
I think you will be surprised, both by the line and the money line. Keep in mind that MLs for championship games are traditionally lower than regular season, and will be even less if Butler wins because they do tie into the totals.
My guess on lines and MLs
Duke-4.5 Butler ML of -175
Duke -5 Mich State -190
WV -2.5 Butler ML of -130
WV -2 Mich State -125
Duke - MSU (5) ------> would be a 95% consensus on the Blue Devils. I guess we will have to wait and see. I don't think in the biggest game of the year for College Sports, the books would expose themselves to so much risk.
Duke - MSU (5) ------> would be a 95% consensus on the Blue Devils. I guess we will have to wait and see. I don't think in the biggest game of the year for College Sports, the books would expose themselves to so much risk.
Just my opinoin.
Well, UNC was -7.5 last year. And UNC was in a league of their own and Mich State isn't a whole lot different.
My guess is no matter what, you will see the consensus for Duke or KY, in the same way they were for KY over WV (was like 75% I think).
Duke - MSU (5) ------> would be a 95% consensus on the Blue Devils. I guess we will have to wait and see. I don't think in the biggest game of the year for College Sports, the books would expose themselves to so much risk.
Just my opinoin.
Well, UNC was -7.5 last year. And UNC was in a league of their own and Mich State isn't a whole lot different.
My guess is no matter what, you will see the consensus for Duke or KY, in the same way they were for KY over WV (was like 75% I think).
Well, UNC was -7.5 last year. And UNC was in a league of their own and Mich State isn't a whole lot different.
My guess is no matter what, you will see the consensus for Duke or KY, in the same way they were for KY over WV (was like 75% I think).
Mich St was a #1 Squad, ranked in the top 10 all year. They have been nowhere near that this year, plus they lost Lucas. I don't think the books will make the mistake of putting a 5 out there.
I hope you are right. I'll be unloading on Duke if you are.
Well, UNC was -7.5 last year. And UNC was in a league of their own and Mich State isn't a whole lot different.
My guess is no matter what, you will see the consensus for Duke or KY, in the same way they were for KY over WV (was like 75% I think).
Mich St was a #1 Squad, ranked in the top 10 all year. They have been nowhere near that this year, plus they lost Lucas. I don't think the books will make the mistake of putting a 5 out there.
I hope you are right. I'll be unloading on Duke if you are.
I think you will be surprised, both by the line and the money line. Keep in mind that MLs for championship games are traditionally lower than regular season, and will be even less if Butler wins because they do tie into the totals.
My guess on lines and MLs
Duke-4.5 Butler ML of -175
Duke -5 Mich State -190
WV -2.5 Butler ML of -130
WV -2 Mich State -125
Will you still be offering the line of 4.5 for Duke?
I think you will be surprised, both by the line and the money line. Keep in mind that MLs for championship games are traditionally lower than regular season, and will be even less if Butler wins because they do tie into the totals.
My guess on lines and MLs
Duke-4.5 Butler ML of -175
Duke -5 Mich State -190
WV -2.5 Butler ML of -130
WV -2 Mich State -125
Will you still be offering the line of 4.5 for Duke?
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