Projected kenpom line is VCU -8 Projected pace is 66 VCU has played 12 games in a game that slow 6-6 overall 1-10 ATS As pace decreases, so does VCUs eFG% 17-1 overall with eFG% > 47.7% 5-5 with < 47.7% Butler eFG% on year is 46.1% (76) Butler is 22-2 when having a defensive eFG% < 55% As pace decreases, so does VCUs defensive TO% 1-6 when forcing less than 24% TO Butler struggles when they don't offensive rebound well 8-5 on year when OR% <36% (14-1 >36%) However, Butler is 46th in nation with 36.1 OR%, while VCU is 275th defensively, giving up an OR 34.2% of possessions Butler has 1.8 effective height advantage Butler also plays better when they get to FT line Their FTR has been < 30% in 10 games this year, in which they were 5-5 (17-1 > 30%) Butler is in top 1/3 of country in terms of getting to FT line (38.4% FTR), while VCU is 236th in the nation with a 38.5 defensive FTR Brad Stevens is 30-14 ATS as a dog, 26-11 ATS as a dog on the road
Projected kenpom line is VCU -8 Projected pace is 66 VCU has played 12 games in a game that slow 6-6 overall 1-10 ATS As pace decreases, so does VCUs eFG% 17-1 overall with eFG% > 47.7% 5-5 with < 47.7% Butler eFG% on year is 46.1% (76) Butler is 22-2 when having a defensive eFG% < 55% As pace decreases, so does VCUs defensive TO% 1-6 when forcing less than 24% TO Butler struggles when they don't offensive rebound well 8-5 on year when OR% <36% (14-1 >36%) However, Butler is 46th in nation with 36.1 OR%, while VCU is 275th defensively, giving up an OR 34.2% of possessions Butler has 1.8 effective height advantage Butler also plays better when they get to FT line Their FTR has been < 30% in 10 games this year, in which they were 5-5 (17-1 > 30%) Butler is in top 1/3 of country in terms of getting to FT line (38.4% FTR), while VCU is 236th in the nation with a 38.5 defensive FTR Brad Stevens is 30-14 ATS as a dog, 26-11 ATS as a dog on the road
In conference play, Butler has turned it over on 20.3% of possessions (11th worst in the conference). VCU's pressure should elevate this number (even if it is lower than their conference average of 27%). In the first SLU game on the road, we saw Butler's turnovers lead to 72 possessions in that game. Concerned about this? Thoughts?
In conference play, Butler has turned it over on 20.3% of possessions (11th worst in the conference). VCU's pressure should elevate this number (even if it is lower than their conference average of 27%). In the first SLU game on the road, we saw Butler's turnovers lead to 72 possessions in that game. Concerned about this? Thoughts?
Not sure why everybody sees this as being such a slow paced game. I think vcu gets out in transition with their stingy defense and tries to run the entire game. Butler is overrated this year, everybody wants to hop on the butler train because of years past. But+7 seems way to easy just like the duke game. Take vcu minus the points as this game could get ugly. Vcu by 10+ and this is my most confident early pick
Not sure why everybody sees this as being such a slow paced game. I think vcu gets out in transition with their stingy defense and tries to run the entire game. Butler is overrated this year, everybody wants to hop on the butler train because of years past. But+7 seems way to easy just like the duke game. Take vcu minus the points as this game could get ugly. Vcu by 10+ and this is my most confident early pick
Had a long writeup and accidentally clicked a link .
RandomBettor - I think a Brad Stevens game plan on 7 days rest can manage the intensive pressure enough to keep the possession total reasonable. I think St. Louis is a different kind of TO producing D. I actually think they are a worse matchup for Baylor. Also, don't want to type it all out again, but I like some of Baylor's in conference stats against VCU today too.
VCU is dead last in defensive eFG% and defensive OR% allowed in conference
VCU is 1st in conference in 2P%, however, Butler is also 1st in defensive 2P% allowed
You are right, it will depend on the pace of the game and Butler's turnovers. But I think they can handle the pressure at least enough to take advantage of the other statistical and strategical advantages that they will have in this game to at least cover the 7.
Thanks for the kind words everyone. Good luck with whatever you play.
Had a long writeup and accidentally clicked a link .
RandomBettor - I think a Brad Stevens game plan on 7 days rest can manage the intensive pressure enough to keep the possession total reasonable. I think St. Louis is a different kind of TO producing D. I actually think they are a worse matchup for Baylor. Also, don't want to type it all out again, but I like some of Baylor's in conference stats against VCU today too.
VCU is dead last in defensive eFG% and defensive OR% allowed in conference
VCU is 1st in conference in 2P%, however, Butler is also 1st in defensive 2P% allowed
You are right, it will depend on the pace of the game and Butler's turnovers. But I think they can handle the pressure at least enough to take advantage of the other statistical and strategical advantages that they will have in this game to at least cover the 7.
Thanks for the kind words everyone. Good luck with whatever you play.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.