Preface Another solid day of 63% yesterday. Back to back days above 60% I'll take those all day long. We are starting to see a common trend here with the betting public getting outright bombarded in certain situations. I think there is a lot of value siding with Vegas right now in the rightcircumstance. That doesn't mean I am an advocate of picking against the public everytime, but when the situation is right (Pitt today, BC yesterday, etc etc) then make the play.
Earlier in the year we saw the public plays were on fire, now I think the roles are reversing. We have to stay sharp and find good spots to get our money in. I think when you are capping smaller teams and weaker conferences there is much less "vegas" involved. Thats just a personal opinion.
Since I've started posting, I have been in the black all 3 days. Thats my goal, to end up black. Whether its by 1 game or by 10...it does not matter to me so long as I have winning days. Thats how you win, by not getting greedy and by staying the course (like I said yesterday). We'll continue to find the right spot to get our money in and we will continue to win. BOL to everyone today...may your card be live!!!!!!!!
Preface Another solid day of 63% yesterday. Back to back days above 60% I'll take those all day long. We are starting to see a common trend here with the betting public getting outright bombarded in certain situations. I think there is a lot of value siding with Vegas right now in the rightcircumstance. That doesn't mean I am an advocate of picking against the public everytime, but when the situation is right (Pitt today, BC yesterday, etc etc) then make the play.
Earlier in the year we saw the public plays were on fire, now I think the roles are reversing. We have to stay sharp and find good spots to get our money in. I think when you are capping smaller teams and weaker conferences there is much less "vegas" involved. Thats just a personal opinion.
Since I've started posting, I have been in the black all 3 days. Thats my goal, to end up black. Whether its by 1 game or by 10...it does not matter to me so long as I have winning days. Thats how you win, by not getting greedy and by staying the course (like I said yesterday). We'll continue to find the right spot to get our money in and we will continue to win. BOL to everyone today...may your card be live!!!!!!!!
Why: This might be the biggest square play of the day tomorrow but I do not care. The line is off and off badly. Vanderbilt just does not have the horses to compete with athletic teams regardless if this game is at home or not. I realize Oglvie did not play the first time they met, but I just don't seem to care here in this situation. Vandy is crap against teams who get up in you and play defense, and crap against teams who are more athletic. They just cannot handle pressure well. This is a must win for them, but I don't see it happening.
Kentucky, just coming off a 3 game skid, is back on the hot streak. It took a last second bucket against Florida to get this team out of their funk, but that basket brought them together...I really believe that. Kentucky by 8-12 here. Kentucky is absolutely money from the charity stripe almost hitting 80% from the line (78% to be exact). Vandy doesn't have an answer for Meeks. He may score 100 tomo. Vandy doesn't fare well against teams that can score points, and tom night will be no different. Square play or not, Kentucky rolls tom...The only trend that needs to be posted?
Vanderbilt is 1-7 ATS against teams averaging 77+ ppg.
Why: This might be the biggest square play of the day tomorrow but I do not care. The line is off and off badly. Vanderbilt just does not have the horses to compete with athletic teams regardless if this game is at home or not. I realize Oglvie did not play the first time they met, but I just don't seem to care here in this situation. Vandy is crap against teams who get up in you and play defense, and crap against teams who are more athletic. They just cannot handle pressure well. This is a must win for them, but I don't see it happening.
Kentucky, just coming off a 3 game skid, is back on the hot streak. It took a last second bucket against Florida to get this team out of their funk, but that basket brought them together...I really believe that. Kentucky by 8-12 here. Kentucky is absolutely money from the charity stripe almost hitting 80% from the line (78% to be exact). Vandy doesn't have an answer for Meeks. He may score 100 tomo. Vandy doesn't fare well against teams that can score points, and tom night will be no different. Square play or not, Kentucky rolls tom...The only trend that needs to be posted?
Vanderbilt is 1-7 ATS against teams averaging 77+ ppg.
guess it won't matter since meeks is dropping a hundo...
Kentucky has good shot blockers and post defense, I think they will keep him in check. Even if they don't though...I don't think Vandy can run with Kentucky. This has disaster written all over it just like when UT walked into Vandy and obliterated them. Vandy just isn't a good basketball team this year.
UT and Florida embarrassed this team, Kentucky and South Carolina beat them already by just out athleting them. It'll happen again tomo. They just don't have what it takes to play teams that score high numbers and like to run.
guess it won't matter since meeks is dropping a hundo...
Kentucky has good shot blockers and post defense, I think they will keep him in check. Even if they don't though...I don't think Vandy can run with Kentucky. This has disaster written all over it just like when UT walked into Vandy and obliterated them. Vandy just isn't a good basketball team this year.
UT and Florida embarrassed this team, Kentucky and South Carolina beat them already by just out athleting them. It'll happen again tomo. They just don't have what it takes to play teams that score high numbers and like to run.
Why: For starters both teams are average close to 40% from behind the arc on offense. Then when you look at defense...what defense? Both team defenses are giving up over 45% FG percentage and both are giving up over 35% 3ball percentage on defense. These two defenses are horrid, and that might have something to do with the style of play preferred.
In their last 13 games Peay has hit 80 9 times...and only under 70 once. Defensively they have given up 80 8 times and only given up under 70 once. Wow! They are solid from the stripe hitting almost 70% as well. Jacksonville State doesn't put up the numbers that Peay does but the last time they faced was an 86-80 ball game. I don't see a game out of hand here, so it will come down to FT at the end. Both teams beind solid from the line I'm taking the over here.
Over is 15-2 in all AP games.
Over is 11-2 in all AP conference games.
Over is 9-0 after AP allows 80 or more.
Over is 4-2 when JS faces a team +.500.
Over is 3-0 when JS faces a team averaging 77+ ppg.
Why: For starters both teams are average close to 40% from behind the arc on offense. Then when you look at defense...what defense? Both team defenses are giving up over 45% FG percentage and both are giving up over 35% 3ball percentage on defense. These two defenses are horrid, and that might have something to do with the style of play preferred.
In their last 13 games Peay has hit 80 9 times...and only under 70 once. Defensively they have given up 80 8 times and only given up under 70 once. Wow! They are solid from the stripe hitting almost 70% as well. Jacksonville State doesn't put up the numbers that Peay does but the last time they faced was an 86-80 ball game. I don't see a game out of hand here, so it will come down to FT at the end. Both teams beind solid from the line I'm taking the over here.
Over is 15-2 in all AP games.
Over is 11-2 in all AP conference games.
Over is 9-0 after AP allows 80 or more.
Over is 4-2 when JS faces a team +.500.
Over is 3-0 when JS faces a team averaging 77+ ppg.
Why: The last time these two teams faced the total hit 143, but that was only because the game was relatively out of question down the stretch. New Mexico caught fire in the 2nd half and extended the lead tremendously. Tonight, I don't think that will be the case. I see a closer game tonight (and I may take NM +7 here) than we did in the first one and a close game down the stretch. BYU is out for revenge here from their embarrassing performance on the road against NM. Both squads can fill it up from 3 ball as they both are hitting 49% are above. They are both good from the line...and down the stretch this one will get pushed over into the 155 range.
Why: The last time these two teams faced the total hit 143, but that was only because the game was relatively out of question down the stretch. New Mexico caught fire in the 2nd half and extended the lead tremendously. Tonight, I don't think that will be the case. I see a closer game tonight (and I may take NM +7 here) than we did in the first one and a close game down the stretch. BYU is out for revenge here from their embarrassing performance on the road against NM. Both squads can fill it up from 3 ball as they both are hitting 49% are above. They are both good from the line...and down the stretch this one will get pushed over into the 155 range.
Why: I love trap games and this is one. Kent State has the #1 Morehead State rolling into town in 3 days to play for big things. Yes, I know Ohio knocked off KSU already and they might be out for a little revenge, but since Ohio's latest hiccup in going 3-3, they have lost their luster. Ohio will give Kent State trouble again because they have the size advantage here. Ohio is basically 6-4/6-5 across the board with a big 7 footer down low (off the bench I believe) and they presents problems for Kent State. I think the biggest reason for me taking Ohio here is free throws.
Ohio shoots 73% from the stripe. Kent shoots 63% from the stripe.
More often than not if there is an average to below average FT shooting team giving points, I'm going to lean the opposite way simply because its hard for them to cover down the stretch when FT shooting is a must. I like Ohio here, they play good defense and they will out work Kent on the boards. Ohio went into a 3 game funk but they won't lay down...I see them coming out tonight and picking off a team that coud be looking ahead to play the conference's best in the next game.
Why: I love trap games and this is one. Kent State has the #1 Morehead State rolling into town in 3 days to play for big things. Yes, I know Ohio knocked off KSU already and they might be out for a little revenge, but since Ohio's latest hiccup in going 3-3, they have lost their luster. Ohio will give Kent State trouble again because they have the size advantage here. Ohio is basically 6-4/6-5 across the board with a big 7 footer down low (off the bench I believe) and they presents problems for Kent State. I think the biggest reason for me taking Ohio here is free throws.
Ohio shoots 73% from the stripe. Kent shoots 63% from the stripe.
More often than not if there is an average to below average FT shooting team giving points, I'm going to lean the opposite way simply because its hard for them to cover down the stretch when FT shooting is a must. I like Ohio here, they play good defense and they will out work Kent on the boards. Ohio went into a 3 game funk but they won't lay down...I see them coming out tonight and picking off a team that coud be looking ahead to play the conference's best in the next game.
Adding Play On Southern Miss -8.5 (Waiting for Movement)
Why: 66% of the money is coming in on ECU +7.5...so the line should go down right? It went up to 8.5. I'll take my chances in resting my money in Vegas' hands hoping they know what they are doing.
Adding Play On Southern Miss -8.5 (Waiting for Movement)
Why: 66% of the money is coming in on ECU +7.5...so the line should go down right? It went up to 8.5. I'll take my chances in resting my money in Vegas' hands hoping they know what they are doing.
I have been too busy studying the NBA..so I havnt' had a chance to even look at college. Going to have to tail you tonight..which I hate doing [anyone] for the most part. I like to do my own bets most of the time...with my system. Anyway....is there a game that really stands out on your card? Also, I have some really good picks on the NBA side if your interested. Didn't know if you messed around with the pros.. Peace brotha..keep up the good work.
I have been too busy studying the NBA..so I havnt' had a chance to even look at college. Going to have to tail you tonight..which I hate doing [anyone] for the most part. I like to do my own bets most of the time...with my system. Anyway....is there a game that really stands out on your card? Also, I have some really good picks on the NBA side if your interested. Didn't know if you messed around with the pros.. Peace brotha..keep up the good work.
If I had to pick a game I would say Kentucky. The only thing that scares me is the public is all over it and those haven't seem to been winning lately. But, I would say Kentucky, the Austin Peay over or Evansville would be safest plays. I just don't see UK losing here in this spot..Vandy is awful. If I had a POD and never looked at betting trends, it would be UK.
I'm on the Clippers and Nets tonight! You?
Agreed...I like to look around and see who is on what but I like to play my own plays unless I am in a real slump!
If I had to pick a game I would say Kentucky. The only thing that scares me is the public is all over it and those haven't seem to been winning lately. But, I would say Kentucky, the Austin Peay over or Evansville would be safest plays. I just don't see UK losing here in this spot..Vandy is awful. If I had a POD and never looked at betting trends, it would be UK.
I'm on the Clippers and Nets tonight! You?
Agreed...I like to look around and see who is on what but I like to play my own plays unless I am in a real slump!
Yes I played the Clippers u/ 223. The lined jumped from 220.5 to 223 so it made me second guess my self...but played it anyway. Last time they played the score was 204, but clippers seem to have a fire under their ass ave. 109 pts last 5 games. I'm not worried...should cover.
Yes I played the Clippers u/ 223. The lined jumped from 220.5 to 223 so it made me second guess my self...but played it anyway. Last time they played the score was 204, but clippers seem to have a fire under their ass ave. 109 pts last 5 games. I'm not worried...should cover.
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