Florida is #2 in the Nation at Eff. FG% (57.6%) and #3 and defensive Eff. FG% (41.0%).
Arkansas is ranked #129 and #159 in the Nation in those categories respectively.
While those disparities are pretty big, I find the Biggest Mismatches is in the 3pt percentage for and against:
Florida is ranked #18 in the Nation in FG% at 39.1% while holding opponents to a 36th in the nation 30.3%.
Arkansas is ranked 304th out of 347 Division 1 teams in 3-pt shooting percentage with only 29.8% and allowing opponents to hit 34.5% from behind the arc (#219 in nation).
The disparities get even worse when you compare the stats of each team Last 8 CONFERENCE games:
Florida is Even Better as they #1 in conf. with 42.3% 3P% and #2 in conf. in defensive 3P% at 27.8%.
Arkansas get Even Worse as they start hitting Tougher games in the conference than the mostly cupcakes they saw in non-conference.
Arkansas is is DEAD LAST in the SEC in 3P% at 24.2%! and #11 out of 14 teams in defensive 3P% at 35.2%.
TO FULLY UNDERSTAND THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THOSE STATS, each team's Strength of Schedules should be looked at.
Florida played the 47th TOUGHEST schedule where as Arkansas played the 165th toughest schedule. Why is this important?!?!? Because:
Florida put up TOP STATS vs TOUGH COMPETITION whereas Arkansas put HORRIBLE STATS vs EASIER COMPETITION.
Their SOS's just Further Differentiate the Mismatches between these two teams.
Florida has 3 seniors, 4 juniors, and one freshman where 6 out of the 8 players see more than 50% of the minutes.
Arkansas has 0 seniors, 6 juniors, 3 sophmores, and 4 freshman IN WHICH THEY SHUFFLE EVERYBODY IN MORE THAN A DECK OF CARDS IN VEGAS.
Arkansas has the 5th IN THE NATION, highest percentage of bench use and only 3 out of the 13 see more than 50% of the minutes....so at least Arkansas has THAT going for them,...or does it hurt them that they don't have many "good" players that need to be in most of the game in order for them to win?
---------------------------------------
Florida is 12-5-0 ATS and Arkansas is 6-7-0 ATS.
While my stats have Florida winning 78-59 while ESPN has a totally different take on this game:
ESPN's "TeamRankings" has it at Florida 75.6 and Arkansas at 64.5.
ESPN's "NumberFire" has it at Florida 73.0 and Arkansas 67.9.
According to NumberFire, the Estimated ROI (Return on Investment) on picking the spread for Florida would be -49.3% and the spread pick for Arkansas would be +40.2%.
NumberFire also picks Arkansas +11.5 points to have a 73.4% chance of hitting.
Florida is #2 in the Nation at Eff. FG% (57.6%) and #3 and defensive Eff. FG% (41.0%).
Arkansas is ranked #129 and #159 in the Nation in those categories respectively.
While those disparities are pretty big, I find the Biggest Mismatches is in the 3pt percentage for and against:
Florida is ranked #18 in the Nation in FG% at 39.1% while holding opponents to a 36th in the nation 30.3%.
Arkansas is ranked 304th out of 347 Division 1 teams in 3-pt shooting percentage with only 29.8% and allowing opponents to hit 34.5% from behind the arc (#219 in nation).
The disparities get even worse when you compare the stats of each team Last 8 CONFERENCE games:
Florida is Even Better as they #1 in conf. with 42.3% 3P% and #2 in conf. in defensive 3P% at 27.8%.
Arkansas get Even Worse as they start hitting Tougher games in the conference than the mostly cupcakes they saw in non-conference.
Arkansas is is DEAD LAST in the SEC in 3P% at 24.2%! and #11 out of 14 teams in defensive 3P% at 35.2%.
TO FULLY UNDERSTAND THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THOSE STATS, each team's Strength of Schedules should be looked at.
Florida played the 47th TOUGHEST schedule where as Arkansas played the 165th toughest schedule. Why is this important?!?!? Because:
Florida put up TOP STATS vs TOUGH COMPETITION whereas Arkansas put HORRIBLE STATS vs EASIER COMPETITION.
Their SOS's just Further Differentiate the Mismatches between these two teams.
Florida has 3 seniors, 4 juniors, and one freshman where 6 out of the 8 players see more than 50% of the minutes.
Arkansas has 0 seniors, 6 juniors, 3 sophmores, and 4 freshman IN WHICH THEY SHUFFLE EVERYBODY IN MORE THAN A DECK OF CARDS IN VEGAS.
Arkansas has the 5th IN THE NATION, highest percentage of bench use and only 3 out of the 13 see more than 50% of the minutes....so at least Arkansas has THAT going for them,...or does it hurt them that they don't have many "good" players that need to be in most of the game in order for them to win?
---------------------------------------
Florida is 12-5-0 ATS and Arkansas is 6-7-0 ATS.
While my stats have Florida winning 78-59 while ESPN has a totally different take on this game:
ESPN's "TeamRankings" has it at Florida 75.6 and Arkansas at 64.5.
ESPN's "NumberFire" has it at Florida 73.0 and Arkansas 67.9.
According to NumberFire, the Estimated ROI (Return on Investment) on picking the spread for Florida would be -49.3% and the spread pick for Arkansas would be +40.2%.
NumberFire also picks Arkansas +11.5 points to have a 73.4% chance of hitting.
I'm not advocating for Arkansas, but the responses in this thread demonstrate (as usual on this board) a total lack of understanding for how lines are made.
I'm not advocating for Arkansas, but the responses in this thread demonstrate (as usual on this board) a total lack of understanding for how lines are made.
Ark 11-1 at home and 4-0 at home against SEC opponents with an average margin of victory in those 4 conference games of 17.5 points. Arkansas is a sneakily good team at home and I really like getting 12 points when they have dominated the rest of the SEC so far at home.
Ark 11-1 at home and 4-0 at home against SEC opponents with an average margin of victory in those 4 conference games of 17.5 points. Arkansas is a sneakily good team at home and I really like getting 12 points when they have dominated the rest of the SEC so far at home.
I'm not advocating for Arkansas, but the responses in this thread demonstrate (as usual on this board) a total lack of understanding for how lines are made.
I'm not advocating for Arkansas, but the responses in this thread demonstrate (as usual on this board) a total lack of understanding for how lines are made.
Ark 11-1 at home and 4-0 at home against SEC opponents with an average margin of victory in those 4 conference games of 17.5 points. Arkansas is a sneakily good team at home and I really like getting 12 points when they have dominated the rest of the SEC so far at home.
Ark 11-1 at home and 4-0 at home against SEC opponents with an average margin of victory in those 4 conference games of 17.5 points. Arkansas is a sneakily good team at home and I really like getting 12 points when they have dominated the rest of the SEC so far at home.
Ark 11-1 at home and 4-0 at home against SEC opponents with an average margin of victory in those 4 conference games of 17.5 points. Arkansas is a sneakily good team at home and I really like getting 12 points when they have dominated the rest of the SEC so far at home.
Name ONE SEC team that on FLORIDA'S level right now?
Ark 11-1 at home and 4-0 at home against SEC opponents with an average margin of victory in those 4 conference games of 17.5 points. Arkansas is a sneakily good team at home and I really like getting 12 points when they have dominated the rest of the SEC so far at home.
Name ONE SEC team that on FLORIDA'S level right now?
I've explained this in the past but there's a never-ending influx of people who either (A) refuse to accept it, (B) too stupid to understand it, or (C) a combo of A and B.
Lines are made using power ratings systems and metrics. In particular, linesmakers are now using KenPom as the basis for their numbers. Situational adjustments and shading are made on some games, though It's rare nowadays to see an opening line that differs from KenPom by more than 2 points.
Lines are not made by looking at a matchup and saying "OMG, Florida is so good and Arkansas is average. Let's slap a -17 up there and see how it goes."
Unfortunately, much of this board (and gamblers in general) adopt this latter approach in betting games.
I've explained this in the past but there's a never-ending influx of people who either (A) refuse to accept it, (B) too stupid to understand it, or (C) a combo of A and B.
Lines are made using power ratings systems and metrics. In particular, linesmakers are now using KenPom as the basis for their numbers. Situational adjustments and shading are made on some games, though It's rare nowadays to see an opening line that differs from KenPom by more than 2 points.
Lines are not made by looking at a matchup and saying "OMG, Florida is so good and Arkansas is average. Let's slap a -17 up there and see how it goes."
Unfortunately, much of this board (and gamblers in general) adopt this latter approach in betting games.
I for one am fading any long speeched promotion, he seems to be leaning towards Arkansas +11.5, the one thing that I have learned on COVERS is, anyone that promotes with a lot of clutter, fade them....Florida for me, by 15
I for one am fading any long speeched promotion, he seems to be leaning towards Arkansas +11.5, the one thing that I have learned on COVERS is, anyone that promotes with a lot of clutter, fade them....Florida for me, by 15
Name ONE SEC team that on FLORIDA'S level right now?
Not suggesting any are even close, but they are dominating all of those teams at home and I do see value of them staying in this game with Florida pulling away by 7-10 in the end. so like I said, I ll gladly take the +12
Name ONE SEC team that on FLORIDA'S level right now?
Not suggesting any are even close, but they are dominating all of those teams at home and I do see value of them staying in this game with Florida pulling away by 7-10 in the end. so like I said, I ll gladly take the +12
Ark 11-1 at home and 4-0 at home against SEC opponents with an average margin of victory in those 4 conference games of 17.5 points. Arkansas is a sneakily good team at home and I really like getting 12 points when they have dominated the rest of the SEC so far at home.
First of all, this is the Basketball SEC and NOT the football SEC.
Secondly, I would like to point out how Arkansas has NOT played a team that is at .500 or better in the powerful, jam-packed elite SEC AT HOME as you were stating in your W-L home records:
3 teams with 2 wins in conference and 1 team with a whole 3 wins.
Home stats not valid here. I'll add in the home Non-Conference CUPCAKES to this list if further discussion is needed. They have ONE decent win vs a decent team and that was Oklahoma back at the beginning of the season.
Ark 11-1 at home and 4-0 at home against SEC opponents with an average margin of victory in those 4 conference games of 17.5 points. Arkansas is a sneakily good team at home and I really like getting 12 points when they have dominated the rest of the SEC so far at home.
First of all, this is the Basketball SEC and NOT the football SEC.
Secondly, I would like to point out how Arkansas has NOT played a team that is at .500 or better in the powerful, jam-packed elite SEC AT HOME as you were stating in your W-L home records:
3 teams with 2 wins in conference and 1 team with a whole 3 wins.
Home stats not valid here. I'll add in the home Non-Conference CUPCAKES to this list if further discussion is needed. They have ONE decent win vs a decent team and that was Oklahoma back at the beginning of the season.
You seem to have put some effort into this analysis and I tend to concur with most of it.
To add a bit, since you mentioned SoS, I did a regression based upon ratings vs points for and against for both team.I used Sagarins ratings as a value.It’s unimportant actually as to which published rating is used.
Sagarin has Arkansas with a 80.4 and Florida 94.4 rating.Using a points (F/A) regression vs ratings of games played, Florida would beat a team rated 80.4 by a score of 73-53 on a neutral court.Conversely, Arkansas would lose to a team with a rating of 94.4 by a score of 58-78.
I would think averaging these would yield a score close to actual.Lets say 75-55 or so and call it a day.
Arkansas has no injuries and Florida reports Patrick Young (11 ppg) is nursing a sore sholder, but is probable.I assume Arkansas will be “up” for the nations #1 team, so the crowd should be vocal.Thankfully ‘Vegas has given us a little leeway, if you believe any of the above numbers, so I’m laying 11’ with the Gators……
You seem to have put some effort into this analysis and I tend to concur with most of it.
To add a bit, since you mentioned SoS, I did a regression based upon ratings vs points for and against for both team.I used Sagarins ratings as a value.It’s unimportant actually as to which published rating is used.
Sagarin has Arkansas with a 80.4 and Florida 94.4 rating.Using a points (F/A) regression vs ratings of games played, Florida would beat a team rated 80.4 by a score of 73-53 on a neutral court.Conversely, Arkansas would lose to a team with a rating of 94.4 by a score of 58-78.
I would think averaging these would yield a score close to actual.Lets say 75-55 or so and call it a day.
Arkansas has no injuries and Florida reports Patrick Young (11 ppg) is nursing a sore sholder, but is probable.I assume Arkansas will be “up” for the nations #1 team, so the crowd should be vocal.Thankfully ‘Vegas has given us a little leeway, if you believe any of the above numbers, so I’m laying 11’ with the Gators……
Just throwing another view.......has anyone given thought to the fact that Indiana just got named #1 again and Florida is hungry to try and grab that spot???? Indiana plays their next 2 away from home at Illinois and OSU. Florida won't be looking past Ark to their next opponent as it's only MSST. Arkansas will get Florida's full effort tonight and it'll be ugly.....76-53
Just throwing another view.......has anyone given thought to the fact that Indiana just got named #1 again and Florida is hungry to try and grab that spot???? Indiana plays their next 2 away from home at Illinois and OSU. Florida won't be looking past Ark to their next opponent as it's only MSST. Arkansas will get Florida's full effort tonight and it'll be ugly.....76-53
I would like to discuss the fact that I didn't mention ONE single stat that is Affected by Tempo. UNTIL, maybe when I mentioned ESPN and their NumberFire and TeamRankings predictions....not sure how they come up with them and they MAY use average points scored and points scored against, which ARE affected by tempo.
My Stats were all PERCENTAGES and REGARDLESS of whether a team shot 100 shots in a game or 50, the PERCENTAGE OF SHOTS MADE HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH TEMPO.
Average points scored and points scored against are stats that people MAY NOT look further into. I DO understand how stats can be MISLEADING if not looked into farther than the surface. Average points for and against ARE affected by tempo.....THE PERCENTAGE OF SHOTS MADE ARE NOT.
I would like to discuss the fact that I didn't mention ONE single stat that is Affected by Tempo. UNTIL, maybe when I mentioned ESPN and their NumberFire and TeamRankings predictions....not sure how they come up with them and they MAY use average points scored and points scored against, which ARE affected by tempo.
My Stats were all PERCENTAGES and REGARDLESS of whether a team shot 100 shots in a game or 50, the PERCENTAGE OF SHOTS MADE HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH TEMPO.
Average points scored and points scored against are stats that people MAY NOT look further into. I DO understand how stats can be MISLEADING if not looked into farther than the surface. Average points for and against ARE affected by tempo.....THE PERCENTAGE OF SHOTS MADE ARE NOT.
But yes, TEMPO should be looked at hear as Arkansas shuffles a LOT of players from the bench in and keep one of the Top Tempos in the game whereas Florida is rather contrastingly on the OTHER side of the spectrum.
But yes, TEMPO should be looked at hear as Arkansas shuffles a LOT of players from the bench in and keep one of the Top Tempos in the game whereas Florida is rather contrastingly on the OTHER side of the spectrum.
Kansas is miles better than ok st. Favored by 10. Lose at home. Meanwhile Syracuse. Playing like garbage -8 against notre dame blows em out.
I agree with jlen lines are made to trick people. Get a lot of ppl on one side a side that looks so good. I might lay off the game but if you expect Florida to shoot lights out on the road on national tv after being claimed as the real #1 team in the land. You're crazy. 12 is a lot of points. Arkansas comes out hot am scores hell even 30 on first half. You really expect Florida to score 35+ on the road in back to back halves. Looking like Arkansas +12
Kansas is miles better than ok st. Favored by 10. Lose at home. Meanwhile Syracuse. Playing like garbage -8 against notre dame blows em out.
I agree with jlen lines are made to trick people. Get a lot of ppl on one side a side that looks so good. I might lay off the game but if you expect Florida to shoot lights out on the road on national tv after being claimed as the real #1 team in the land. You're crazy. 12 is a lot of points. Arkansas comes out hot am scores hell even 30 on first half. You really expect Florida to score 35+ on the road in back to back halves. Looking like Arkansas +12
Oh and moose is an idiot. "they'll be playing for that #1 spot" so were my hawks last week. At home. It isn't always an advantage. Florida is good don't get me wrong but they are over achieving right now. Be careful
Oh and moose is an idiot. "they'll be playing for that #1 spot" so were my hawks last week. At home. It isn't always an advantage. Florida is good don't get me wrong but they are over achieving right now. Be careful
Florida is +19.3 (2nd best is college basketball behing Gonzaga)
Arkansas is neg. 4.7
Just discussing this, not trying to "argue", but you didn't dig deep enough on that stat. Florida just played ONE "good" team of Mississippi who is ranked 3rd in SEC whereas Mississippi St. and South Carolina are the TWO LAST TEAMS in the SEC.
Arkansas DID also play South Carolina, but Arkansas played them AWAY and Florida played them at HOME. That disparity also puts Florida at 2 home games to 1 away in the last 3 games where as Arkansas is 1 home game to 2 away.
A lot of things in the last 3 games is misleading and is rough barometer.
Again, just discussing...I enjoy discussions amongst Men and prefer to keep the childish junk out of my threads.
Florida is +19.3 (2nd best is college basketball behing Gonzaga)
Arkansas is neg. 4.7
Just discussing this, not trying to "argue", but you didn't dig deep enough on that stat. Florida just played ONE "good" team of Mississippi who is ranked 3rd in SEC whereas Mississippi St. and South Carolina are the TWO LAST TEAMS in the SEC.
Arkansas DID also play South Carolina, but Arkansas played them AWAY and Florida played them at HOME. That disparity also puts Florida at 2 home games to 1 away in the last 3 games where as Arkansas is 1 home game to 2 away.
A lot of things in the last 3 games is misleading and is rough barometer.
Again, just discussing...I enjoy discussions amongst Men and prefer to keep the childish junk out of my threads.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.