The line on this game opened at New England -9', hit 10 briefly, and appears to have settled at 9. I think that's too high. Here's why:
The line and total of 47 indicate that New England will win by a score of 28-19, but New England has only beaten one team all year by more than 9 points, and that was New Orleans.
The line and total indicate that New York will score only 19 points, but the Jets have scored 20 or more points in three of their five games, and New England has held only one opponent to less than 20 points. That opponent was Tampa Bay last Thursday, who shot themselves in the foot multiple times and missed three field goals. Indeed, through five games, New England is allowing 28 points a game. The Jets are allowing 21 points a game.
New York has allowed only one opponent to score more 21 points. That opponent was Oakland in Week Two. It was a long travel, back-to-back road game for New York.
Two of New York's three wins came against teams that had winning records. They beat the 1-0 Dolphins, and the 2-1 Jaguars. Only one of New England's three wins came against a winning opponent, and that was 2-1 Tampa Bay.
The line on this game before the season started was New England -9', and it's New England -9 now. However, New England has vastly underperformed, losing outright as a favorite twice, and going 1-4 ATS. New York, on the other hand, has performed better than expected, winning outright as an underdog vs. Miami and Jacksonville, and they opened as an underdog in their win last week at Cleveland.
Based on statistical analysis of points per 100 yards, yards per pass attempt, yards per rush, sacks, 3rd down percentage, penalties, touchdowns, and turnovers, I have New England rated -3. That's awful. I have the Jets rated worse at -4.5, but they're getting 9 points in this game.
New York's defense, under ex-defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, plays better at home. Last year, they allowed 324 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play at home, vs. 361 yards and 5.7 yards per play on the road. In 2015, it was 300 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play at home, vs. 337 yards and 5.3 yards per play on the road. So far this year, it's 268 yards per game and 3.9 yards per play at home, vs. 412 yards and 6.3 yards per play on the road.
New England is ranked dead last in the league in both of those categories this year, allowing 419 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play on the road.
The last four times that New England has played at New York, the games have been decided by 3, 1, 6, and 5 points. In last year's game, New England was favored by 9 points, and that was a Super Bowl caliber team. This year's team is not. The Jets were 3-7 then; this year they're 3-2.
In our write-up of the Atlanta game on Monday, we mentioned a possible look-ahead factor for the Falcons. Well, that works two ways. New England could easily be looking ahead to next week's Super Bowl rematch vs. Atlanta and overlook the lowly Jets.
Since tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins returned from his two game suspension, the Jets have been a different team, going 3-0 SUATS.
Now here's the catch, and why reading this is making you so nervous: Josh McCown is a brittle, turnover-prone quarterback. He could very easily fumble this game away. It's the chance I'm taking as I expect New York to keep this one close and possibly win outright.
I'm on the Jets.