That's how long it's been since Tennessee had a loss as bad as the UGA 41-0 stomping at home last game.
What do you get this week?
They stay at home (huge), get a bye week to stew about it, and have a guaranteed loss @ Bama (which they are currently 35 point dogs in using the lookahead line) on deck, making this the game game of importance, against a good but not great South Carolina team.
And Butch Jones job (as always, is one the line).
What more do you want, situationally?
A FG Covers so the line is great too.
Dormandy is bad. I've seen far worse cover in spots like this.
Just take the above and play Tennessee in the historic bounce back spot.
That's how long it's been since Tennessee had a loss as bad as the UGA 41-0 stomping at home last game.
What do you get this week?
They stay at home (huge), get a bye week to stew about it, and have a guaranteed loss @ Bama (which they are currently 35 point dogs in using the lookahead line) on deck, making this the game game of importance, against a good but not great South Carolina team.
And Butch Jones job (as always, is one the line).
What more do you want, situationally?
A FG Covers so the line is great too.
Dormandy is bad. I've seen far worse cover in spots like this.
Just take the above and play Tennessee in the historic bounce back spot.
do you understand they almost lost to UMASS....AT HOME.....
they put up 17 points. Think about that......
why even bet on this trash behind team?
Uh yeah, I've seen it. Losing to Umass at home were the exact words I've already used.
It was in my previous write up where I had UGA crushing them -7 for that exact reason and guys just like yourself told me to be wary of the spot and strange things would happen at home and TENN would cover.
War, I'll link my last write up on UGA where I railed on dormandy if you don't believe me. This is situational capping. Dormandy is not the sole offensive option. He can facilitate and get them out of there with a win, especially with two weeks to prepare. Only need to win by .5 here.
do you understand they almost lost to UMASS....AT HOME.....
they put up 17 points. Think about that......
why even bet on this trash behind team?
Uh yeah, I've seen it. Losing to Umass at home were the exact words I've already used.
It was in my previous write up where I had UGA crushing them -7 for that exact reason and guys just like yourself told me to be wary of the spot and strange things would happen at home and TENN would cover.
War, I'll link my last write up on UGA where I railed on dormandy if you don't believe me. This is situational capping. Dormandy is not the sole offensive option. He can facilitate and get them out of there with a win, especially with two weeks to prepare. Only need to win by .5 here.
You are absolutely correct from a situational capping standpoint. But, I think the Gamecocks are better than you give them credit for. Wins over a solid NC State team and Arkansas make me think they have the horses to beat a UT team that has its WR texting about how funny it is Vandy can score on UGA but not the Vols. Your opinion can turn me away from a game, and that's what it will do in this case, but I can't take the Vols this time.
You are absolutely correct from a situational capping standpoint. But, I think the Gamecocks are better than you give them credit for. Wins over a solid NC State team and Arkansas make me think they have the horses to beat a UT team that has its WR texting about how funny it is Vandy can score on UGA but not the Vols. Your opinion can turn me away from a game, and that's what it will do in this case, but I can't take the Vols this time.
Atlanta, Gamecocks are solid for sure. I've watched them. I do not reject the notion that it is scary to back the Vols here given what you've seen from these two teams.
Just know that the Back to back home losses here will be a Mt. Saint Helen erupting in Tennesseee. The players know that. The fans and alumni know it. Butch has known it. And Bama is on deck ready to annihilate them making this game beyond the utmost importance in terms of righting the wrong that was a historic loss. Like the Lakers, no matter how bad (and the Vols are nowhere near how bad the Lakers have been these past several years) you get history and culture intertwined with this pick (an angle many reject and that is fine). It's an angle that has served me well to get the job done where even a emotional FG at the gun gets me paid! I expect it to do so here.
Eusebio - even if they do not fight for Butch there is personal pride here after the 41-0 beating (something Tennessee has but say, Rutgers does not, given their respective history).
Atlanta, Gamecocks are solid for sure. I've watched them. I do not reject the notion that it is scary to back the Vols here given what you've seen from these two teams.
Just know that the Back to back home losses here will be a Mt. Saint Helen erupting in Tennesseee. The players know that. The fans and alumni know it. Butch has known it. And Bama is on deck ready to annihilate them making this game beyond the utmost importance in terms of righting the wrong that was a historic loss. Like the Lakers, no matter how bad (and the Vols are nowhere near how bad the Lakers have been these past several years) you get history and culture intertwined with this pick (an angle many reject and that is fine). It's an angle that has served me well to get the job done where even a emotional FG at the gun gets me paid! I expect it to do so here.
Eusebio - even if they do not fight for Butch there is personal pride here after the 41-0 beating (something Tennessee has but say, Rutgers does not, given their respective history).
Scal....I normally follow the Pied piper who gets me paid but have you considered:
S.Carolina opened up -2.5 last week as memory serves me and the Arky bets poured in for 24-48 hrs causing a reverse line of +1.5. It caused me to pause off of the better team in my mind because I thought there was a situational 'catch'.....but I could not find one. Gamecocks were the home team, had already some good wins in their pocket against good teams.
So what happens, Gamecocks 'laugh' at the crazy line and smoke Arky! Honestly, S.Carolina should be favoured by -1 or it should be a pick based on performance this year. Breaking down their teams by position, they are close but the performances tells us.....something and that is......stay away and watch, or with this line, why .fight it and PLAY S. CAROLINA ML smallish....say $100, otherwise, I don't think a large bet is warranted on -2.5 for the Vols
In your defense....the 1 pt win over G-Tech is impressive as is the 6 point loss in Florida which suggests to me they get up for tough games but.....
Would rather have points with a team that:
-has to face a 124th ranked run dee like the Vols have
-play dee vs the 110th ranked offense in football like the Vols have
but in your defense....
-Gamecocks may not be able to take advantage with only the 121st ranked Run game in college
-Bentley has to now face the 3rd ranked secondary in football
SO.......in conclusion......you may be onto something here with matchups + situation + motivation....but I can't rap my head around the fact that they are playing a 'neighbour' state like the NCST sitch and getting points!!
When faves they lost to a neighbour....Kentucky
All this is telling me take a stab at either play after watching the news of both teams this week....get a feel for motivation, practice, etc.
GL with this proposition.....normally I follow your angles but not this time
Beer is gotta be earned from winning or hard work. Andy Dufresne agrees.
Scal....I normally follow the Pied piper who gets me paid but have you considered:
S.Carolina opened up -2.5 last week as memory serves me and the Arky bets poured in for 24-48 hrs causing a reverse line of +1.5. It caused me to pause off of the better team in my mind because I thought there was a situational 'catch'.....but I could not find one. Gamecocks were the home team, had already some good wins in their pocket against good teams.
So what happens, Gamecocks 'laugh' at the crazy line and smoke Arky! Honestly, S.Carolina should be favoured by -1 or it should be a pick based on performance this year. Breaking down their teams by position, they are close but the performances tells us.....something and that is......stay away and watch, or with this line, why .fight it and PLAY S. CAROLINA ML smallish....say $100, otherwise, I don't think a large bet is warranted on -2.5 for the Vols
In your defense....the 1 pt win over G-Tech is impressive as is the 6 point loss in Florida which suggests to me they get up for tough games but.....
Would rather have points with a team that:
-has to face a 124th ranked run dee like the Vols have
-play dee vs the 110th ranked offense in football like the Vols have
but in your defense....
-Gamecocks may not be able to take advantage with only the 121st ranked Run game in college
-Bentley has to now face the 3rd ranked secondary in football
SO.......in conclusion......you may be onto something here with matchups + situation + motivation....but I can't rap my head around the fact that they are playing a 'neighbour' state like the NCST sitch and getting points!!
When faves they lost to a neighbour....Kentucky
All this is telling me take a stab at either play after watching the news of both teams this week....get a feel for motivation, practice, etc.
GL with this proposition.....normally I follow your angles but not this time
Last I fully expect cappers to be queezy about supporting TENN and Butch here.
But you have to look at games in reverse. What exactly would get you this line (which I think is a good one but you want a SC -1 type line and that is fine) in this spot and make it a bettable play on TENN. if Tenn, say, has a great showing in a loss against UGA but covers +7, say 24-28, you are giving over a FG here, possible 4 to 4.5 if Dormandy showed life.
Instead they got bombed. Stepped on. Destroyed. I say GREAT. That is exaclty what you need to motivate them in this spot both for psychological and on preserving a program history basis to expect a win here.
No need to look at practices. Tenn practices and quotes will contain all you want to hear and I'm betting it before it goes back to 3.
If Tenn wins that Gator game you're talking about a very strong conference team. Instead they wet the bed at home against UMass. Got annihilated bun UGA. And now in a third straight home game off a bye + a historic stomping, I couldn't ask for a better spot to back, albeit, a very shaky QB under center.
But I hated Dobbs too and he reeled off 38 straight to snap FLA winning streak last year. These TENN QB's are a strange breed. But I trust em in the right spots.
Last I fully expect cappers to be queezy about supporting TENN and Butch here.
But you have to look at games in reverse. What exactly would get you this line (which I think is a good one but you want a SC -1 type line and that is fine) in this spot and make it a bettable play on TENN. if Tenn, say, has a great showing in a loss against UGA but covers +7, say 24-28, you are giving over a FG here, possible 4 to 4.5 if Dormandy showed life.
Instead they got bombed. Stepped on. Destroyed. I say GREAT. That is exaclty what you need to motivate them in this spot both for psychological and on preserving a program history basis to expect a win here.
No need to look at practices. Tenn practices and quotes will contain all you want to hear and I'm betting it before it goes back to 3.
If Tenn wins that Gator game you're talking about a very strong conference team. Instead they wet the bed at home against UMass. Got annihilated bun UGA. And now in a third straight home game off a bye + a historic stomping, I couldn't ask for a better spot to back, albeit, a very shaky QB under center.
But I hated Dobbs too and he reeled off 38 straight to snap FLA winning streak last year. These TENN QB's are a strange breed. But I trust em in the right spots.
There is no way in my life time I could bet Tennessee here unless they were catching 7+ ....Still Not sure I would take them after how they looked ....
That being said these odds makers are Master Tricksters
BEST OF LUCK BROTHER
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
There is no way in my life time I could bet Tennessee here unless they were catching 7+ ....Still Not sure I would take them after how they looked ....
That being said these odds makers are Master Tricksters
Double, ya can't have the great teams cover the oversized spreads (the Bama's of the world and even they didn't cover this week) and ya can't have the awful teams pull through even getting boatloads of points (the east Carolinas of the world).
Ya gotta make plays that make you feel UNCOMFORTABLE! I know you know that!
Double, ya can't have the great teams cover the oversized spreads (the Bama's of the world and even they didn't cover this week) and ya can't have the awful teams pull through even getting boatloads of points (the east Carolinas of the world).
Ya gotta make plays that make you feel UNCOMFORTABLE! I know you know that!
I like it..Will it be enough to save Butch Jones after an upcoming throttling by Bama? nope. But after hearing about the Georgia loss for 2 weeks, if they lose this game he may not make it to the Bama game; and I think he knows it.
Funny side story on Butch Jones: As a kid I went to WVU football camp and Butch Jones was Wide Receivers coach under then head coach Rich Rodriguez. Butch spent about a half hour trying to figure out a ball throwing machine, similar to a pitching machine in baseball. And this was something they used everyday in practice. He wasn't smart enough to figure out a pitching machine and I don't think he's smart enough to lead a big name program like Tennessee. Part of his million dollar paycheck should be directly deposited into Brian Kelly's bank account bc if it weren't for Kelly's recruits at Central Michigan, and then Cincinnati, Butch is a coordinator somewhere.
Wanted to ask about several other games his week if you have a chance to cap them. I'm seeing multiple games with teams you've capped in games before matching up against one another, such as Purdue-Wisconsin, Ohio State-Nebraska, and Rutgers-Illinois. You've been spot on with the Big Ten this year for the most part and was wondering if you're looking into any of these games before I bet on them either way. Thanks as always
I like it..Will it be enough to save Butch Jones after an upcoming throttling by Bama? nope. But after hearing about the Georgia loss for 2 weeks, if they lose this game he may not make it to the Bama game; and I think he knows it.
Funny side story on Butch Jones: As a kid I went to WVU football camp and Butch Jones was Wide Receivers coach under then head coach Rich Rodriguez. Butch spent about a half hour trying to figure out a ball throwing machine, similar to a pitching machine in baseball. And this was something they used everyday in practice. He wasn't smart enough to figure out a pitching machine and I don't think he's smart enough to lead a big name program like Tennessee. Part of his million dollar paycheck should be directly deposited into Brian Kelly's bank account bc if it weren't for Kelly's recruits at Central Michigan, and then Cincinnati, Butch is a coordinator somewhere.
Wanted to ask about several other games his week if you have a chance to cap them. I'm seeing multiple games with teams you've capped in games before matching up against one another, such as Purdue-Wisconsin, Ohio State-Nebraska, and Rutgers-Illinois. You've been spot on with the Big Ten this year for the most part and was wondering if you're looking into any of these games before I bet on them either way. Thanks as always
Last I fully expect cappers to be queezy about supporting TENN and Butch here.
But you have to look at games in reverse. What exactly would get you this line (which I think is a good one but you want a SC -1 type line and that is fine) in this spot and make it a bettable play on TENN. if Tenn, say, has a great showing in a loss against UGA but covers +7, say 24-28, you are giving over a FG here, possible 4 to 4.5 if Dormandy showed life.
Instead they got bombed. Stepped on. Destroyed. I say GREAT. That is exaclty what you need to motivate them in this spot both for psychological and on preserving a program history basis to expect a win here.
No need to look at practices. Tenn practices and quotes will contain all you want to hear and I'm betting it before it goes back to 3.
If Tenn wins that Gator game you're talking about a very strong conference team. Instead they wet the bed at home against UMass. Got annihilated bun UGA. And now in a third straight home game off a bye + a historic stomping, I couldn't ask for a better spot to back, albeit, a very shaky QB under center.
But I hated Dobbs too and he reeled off 38 straight to snap FLA winning streak last year. These TENN QB's are a strange breed. But I trust em in the right spots.
The highlighted.....comment above says it all....with that kind of line, I would take a stab at Tenn but now I have to lay pats.....missed xpt, safety, etc....puts me in play taking +2.5
If this goes to +3.....its an insta-bet on SC......BOL....not with you this time and once again, I love your courage which is what it takes in this game of betting....
Beer is gotta be earned from winning or hard work. Andy Dufresne agrees.
Last I fully expect cappers to be queezy about supporting TENN and Butch here.
But you have to look at games in reverse. What exactly would get you this line (which I think is a good one but you want a SC -1 type line and that is fine) in this spot and make it a bettable play on TENN. if Tenn, say, has a great showing in a loss against UGA but covers +7, say 24-28, you are giving over a FG here, possible 4 to 4.5 if Dormandy showed life.
Instead they got bombed. Stepped on. Destroyed. I say GREAT. That is exaclty what you need to motivate them in this spot both for psychological and on preserving a program history basis to expect a win here.
No need to look at practices. Tenn practices and quotes will contain all you want to hear and I'm betting it before it goes back to 3.
If Tenn wins that Gator game you're talking about a very strong conference team. Instead they wet the bed at home against UMass. Got annihilated bun UGA. And now in a third straight home game off a bye + a historic stomping, I couldn't ask for a better spot to back, albeit, a very shaky QB under center.
But I hated Dobbs too and he reeled off 38 straight to snap FLA winning streak last year. These TENN QB's are a strange breed. But I trust em in the right spots.
The highlighted.....comment above says it all....with that kind of line, I would take a stab at Tenn but now I have to lay pats.....missed xpt, safety, etc....puts me in play taking +2.5
If this goes to +3.....its an insta-bet on SC......BOL....not with you this time and once again, I love your courage which is what it takes in this game of betting....
VEGAS wants us to take SC.....so lets see if the sharps with the big doh-rey me do....which is why I think this will make for a great line watch all week along with the Sooner game
Beer is gotta be earned from winning or hard work. Andy Dufresne agrees.
VEGAS wants us to take SC.....so lets see if the sharps with the big doh-rey me do....which is why I think this will make for a great line watch all week along with the Sooner game
Thanks for the reply. Yes I did initially think the Purdue line was high, but it's tough to say whether Wisky in their ranked position tries to add style points as many top ranked teams do in the second half to add to playoff resumes (i.e. Ohio State, Penn State, Washington) if they're up late.
Yes the Rutgers/Illinois line movement was puzzling his morning. When I first checked, Illinois was -3, then went to a pick, then back to -2.5;
Reminds me of the Browns/Jets debacle..(Which I should've took both of your leans as both Jets and Temple hit over the weekend). I didn't know about the QB situation.
Thanks for the reply. Yes I did initially think the Purdue line was high, but it's tough to say whether Wisky in their ranked position tries to add style points as many top ranked teams do in the second half to add to playoff resumes (i.e. Ohio State, Penn State, Washington) if they're up late.
Yes the Rutgers/Illinois line movement was puzzling his morning. When I first checked, Illinois was -3, then went to a pick, then back to -2.5;
Reminds me of the Browns/Jets debacle..(Which I should've took both of your leans as both Jets and Temple hit over the weekend). I didn't know about the QB situation.
Thanks for the reply. Yes I did initially think the Purdue line was high, but it's tough to say whether Wisky in their ranked position tries to add style points as many top ranked teams do in the second half to add to playoff resumes (i.e. Ohio State, Penn State, Washington) if they're up late.
Yes the Rutgers/Illinois line movement was puzzling his morning. When I first checked, Illinois was -3, then went to a pick, then back to -2.5;
Reminds me of the Browns/Jets debacle..(Which I should've took both of your leans as both Jets and Temple hit over the weekend). I didn't know about the QB situation.
Thanks. The crazy thing is that I don't want Bolin at QB and he's the regular starter. He's just not working out, at least in terms of profiting off Rutgers as a capper.
If they go with Rescigno Rutgers is dead. Too undersized and limited in the pocket.
Lewis is the best option. But does that kid in his first start go on the road against a gutsy Ilini team and win. I wouldn't put my money on that.
Purdue is a no play this week for me. Can't see them winning and it could be one of those Michigan endings where they are inside the number for almost the entire game then give it up late with a pick 6. Not playing it.
Thanks for the reply. Yes I did initially think the Purdue line was high, but it's tough to say whether Wisky in their ranked position tries to add style points as many top ranked teams do in the second half to add to playoff resumes (i.e. Ohio State, Penn State, Washington) if they're up late.
Yes the Rutgers/Illinois line movement was puzzling his morning. When I first checked, Illinois was -3, then went to a pick, then back to -2.5;
Reminds me of the Browns/Jets debacle..(Which I should've took both of your leans as both Jets and Temple hit over the weekend). I didn't know about the QB situation.
Thanks. The crazy thing is that I don't want Bolin at QB and he's the regular starter. He's just not working out, at least in terms of profiting off Rutgers as a capper.
If they go with Rescigno Rutgers is dead. Too undersized and limited in the pocket.
Lewis is the best option. But does that kid in his first start go on the road against a gutsy Ilini team and win. I wouldn't put my money on that.
Purdue is a no play this week for me. Can't see them winning and it could be one of those Michigan endings where they are inside the number for almost the entire game then give it up late with a pick 6. Not playing it.
Ok sounds great..sometimes the best play is a no play.
Definitely think they are more favorable lines this week in ncaaf than last week.
Some very interesting lines in the Big 12 this week. TCU should be on upset alert with their noon start at K-State, and WVU -3 at home against Texas Tech is a head scratcher. If Oklahoma believes they're playoff hopes are still alive (which they should), then there's no reason they should lose to an improving Texas team.
Ok sounds great..sometimes the best play is a no play.
Definitely think they are more favorable lines this week in ncaaf than last week.
Some very interesting lines in the Big 12 this week. TCU should be on upset alert with their noon start at K-State, and WVU -3 at home against Texas Tech is a head scratcher. If Oklahoma believes they're playoff hopes are still alive (which they should), then there's no reason they should lose to an improving Texas team.
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