Hello again, we're back for another year in the Czech league.
In today's opening match we've got Brno hosting Ostrava, who are back in the top league after finishing second in the second tier last season. It looks like some money is coming in on the home team, as the line has moved in their direction, and I have to say I agree.
Hello again, we're back for another year in the Czech league.
In today's opening match we've got Brno hosting Ostrava, who are back in the top league after finishing second in the second tier last season. It looks like some money is coming in on the home team, as the line has moved in their direction, and I have to say I agree.
Karvina (+109). Jihlava were awful last year away from home, and they were lucky not to have been relegated. It's a new year and a fresh start, but I don't see any reason to think they will be any better this year. I'll take Karvina at home.
It's an interesting opening week with the class of the league -- Plzen, Slavia, Sparta and Boleslav -- all at home to much weaker opponents. I can't bet against any of them -- not even getting +1 or +1.5 -- but I can't bet on them either, since they all had midweek CL / EL matches and might not be entirely focused on the opener. I'll take a pass and just watch how the first week turns out.
Karvina (+109). Jihlava were awful last year away from home, and they were lucky not to have been relegated. It's a new year and a fresh start, but I don't see any reason to think they will be any better this year. I'll take Karvina at home.
It's an interesting opening week with the class of the league -- Plzen, Slavia, Sparta and Boleslav -- all at home to much weaker opponents. I can't bet against any of them -- not even getting +1 or +1.5 -- but I can't bet on them either, since they all had midweek CL / EL matches and might not be entirely focused on the opener. I'll take a pass and just watch how the first week turns out.
Interesting first week, as both newly promoted teams got away wins, including Olomouc shocking Boleslav.
Plzen (+117). Jablonec are coming off a decent season, and they picked up an away point last week, but anytime I can get Plzen at + money, even if it's on the road, I'll take it.
Slovacko +0, +.5 (-108). Jihlava are lucky to still be in the top league, but they showed last week why they won't survive another season without being relegated. I just need a draw from Slovacko on the Asian line, and that shouldn't be a problem.
Boleslav / Sparta DRAW (+205). Both teams are coming off the disappointment of being knocked out of the Europa League this week, and both have played a lot of matches the past few weeks. I think we could see a letdown performance all around in Monday's feature match.
Interesting first week, as both newly promoted teams got away wins, including Olomouc shocking Boleslav.
Plzen (+117). Jablonec are coming off a decent season, and they picked up an away point last week, but anytime I can get Plzen at + money, even if it's on the road, I'll take it.
Slovacko +0, +.5 (-108). Jihlava are lucky to still be in the top league, but they showed last week why they won't survive another season without being relegated. I just need a draw from Slovacko on the Asian line, and that shouldn't be a problem.
Boleslav / Sparta DRAW (+205). Both teams are coming off the disappointment of being knocked out of the Europa League this week, and both have played a lot of matches the past few weeks. I think we could see a letdown performance all around in Monday's feature match.
I had it right in the Monday match -- we definitely saw a letdown from both teams. I should have taken the under rather than the draw. This weekend I like:
Slavia -1.5, -2 (-130). I hate to do it -- giving 2 goals and laying heavy juice -- but this one really should be ugly. The defending champ at home against the absolute worst away side in the league. Jihlava are going to be relegated this year, and they were absolutely dreadful last year away from home. The only way this doesn't hit is if Slavia doesn't score enough. I'm also taking Jihlava not to score at -167 but I won't include that here; heavy juice, but I still think it's a bargain against this terrible team.
Teplice Pick, -0.5 (-132). More juice, but I think it's a decent price on a Teplice side that performs fairly well at home.
Dukla / Zlin 2.5 UNDER (-105). Dukla's defense has been an absolute sieve so far this year, but they've played both their matches away from home. I think they'll stiffen a little in the home opener, but they still won't be able to score. These two teams have scored a total of three goals combined so far this year, and I'll take the under.
I had it right in the Monday match -- we definitely saw a letdown from both teams. I should have taken the under rather than the draw. This weekend I like:
Slavia -1.5, -2 (-130). I hate to do it -- giving 2 goals and laying heavy juice -- but this one really should be ugly. The defending champ at home against the absolute worst away side in the league. Jihlava are going to be relegated this year, and they were absolutely dreadful last year away from home. The only way this doesn't hit is if Slavia doesn't score enough. I'm also taking Jihlava not to score at -167 but I won't include that here; heavy juice, but I still think it's a bargain against this terrible team.
Teplice Pick, -0.5 (-132). More juice, but I think it's a decent price on a Teplice side that performs fairly well at home.
Dukla / Zlin 2.5 UNDER (-105). Dukla's defense has been an absolute sieve so far this year, but they've played both their matches away from home. I think they'll stiffen a little in the home opener, but they still won't be able to score. These two teams have scored a total of three goals combined so far this year, and I'll take the under.
I like Sparta in this afternoon's match, but I don't want to lay 1.5, and the price for -1 (-215) is just too high. I'll pass. Here's what I like tomorrow:
Karvina +.5, +1 (-115). Zlin have been unimpressive so far this season, their only victory against a pretty bad Brno side. While Karvina have not been great, getting them to win or draw is a number I'll take.
Boleslav (-121). What is wrong with Boleslav? After finishing fourth last season, they're just one spot out of relegation after three rounds this year. Their usually formidable home form has been bad this year, as they've lost both home matches so far, but I think they'll take care of business and get back on track again Liberec tomorrow.
Olomouc (-111). The newcomers have looked great so far, sitting in third place despite two of their first three matches against Boleslav and Plzen. They've been impressive, and I'll take them at home against a really bad Brno side.
I like Sparta in this afternoon's match, but I don't want to lay 1.5, and the price for -1 (-215) is just too high. I'll pass. Here's what I like tomorrow:
Karvina +.5, +1 (-115). Zlin have been unimpressive so far this season, their only victory against a pretty bad Brno side. While Karvina have not been great, getting them to win or draw is a number I'll take.
Boleslav (-121). What is wrong with Boleslav? After finishing fourth last season, they're just one spot out of relegation after three rounds this year. Their usually formidable home form has been bad this year, as they've lost both home matches so far, but I think they'll take care of business and get back on track again Liberec tomorrow.
Olomouc (-111). The newcomers have looked great so far, sitting in third place despite two of their first three matches against Boleslav and Plzen. They've been impressive, and I'll take them at home against a really bad Brno side.
1-2 last week as Boleslav continue their miserable slide to the bottom of the table after last year's great showing.
Bohemians Pick (+155), Bohemians / Dukla UNDER 2 (+125). These are both half-unit plays. Friday's match has seen a little bit of money come in on the visitors, and I'll follow that money. Dukla have not been playing poorly this year, but Bohemians have yet to lose, and at a nice + number, I'll take my chance on them this afternoon. This one figures to be low scoring, as both teams struggle on offense but are solid defensively. I like the 2.5, but at -155 I can't play it. I'll take my chance with 2 at + money.
Karvina (+162). There's been a bunch of Karvina money on this match, driving the number down about 40 cents since Tuesday. I'm not sure what's behind it, but I like Karvina in this spot at home, and I'm selling Liberec high after their big win against a surprisingly inept Boleslav side last week.
Slovacko (+139). Do you think newcomer Olomouc can keep it rolling and stay in second place? 'Cause I don't. They've been a surprise, and they've played well, but I think they come down a bit on the road this week against a Slovacko side that usually plays solid at home.
I'm also looking at a ML parlay with Sparta & Teplice at +151, but I haven't decided on that yet and I'll leave it out of here for now.
1-2 last week as Boleslav continue their miserable slide to the bottom of the table after last year's great showing.
Bohemians Pick (+155), Bohemians / Dukla UNDER 2 (+125). These are both half-unit plays. Friday's match has seen a little bit of money come in on the visitors, and I'll follow that money. Dukla have not been playing poorly this year, but Bohemians have yet to lose, and at a nice + number, I'll take my chance on them this afternoon. This one figures to be low scoring, as both teams struggle on offense but are solid defensively. I like the 2.5, but at -155 I can't play it. I'll take my chance with 2 at + money.
Karvina (+162). There's been a bunch of Karvina money on this match, driving the number down about 40 cents since Tuesday. I'm not sure what's behind it, but I like Karvina in this spot at home, and I'm selling Liberec high after their big win against a surprisingly inept Boleslav side last week.
Slovacko (+139). Do you think newcomer Olomouc can keep it rolling and stay in second place? 'Cause I don't. They've been a surprise, and they've played well, but I think they come down a bit on the road this week against a Slovacko side that usually plays solid at home.
I'm also looking at a ML parlay with Sparta & Teplice at +151, but I haven't decided on that yet and I'll leave it out of here for now.
It was a rough week last time out, going 0-3-1. It was also a rough week for the Czech men's team, losing a pair to Germany and Northern Ireland, officially eliminating them from next summer's World Cup. I look to turn it around with four plays this weekend:
Plzen (+131). My initial lean here was to take a surprising Liberec at home, but this number with Plzen is too tempting. They have yet to drop a point this season, and I'll see if I can ride that streak for one more week.
Ostrava / Jablonec DRAW (+215). Ostrava have played two home matches, both draws. Jablonec have played two away matches, both draws. They are 8th (Jablonec) and 12th (Ostrava) in the table, and Ostrava get a bit of a boost playing at home. Looks to be a good chance at another draw for both.
Slavia (+102). Olomouc is off to a hot start since being promoted, but I think they run into trouble this week. Gotta love the reigning champs at + money.
Boleslav / Brno 2.5 OVER (-108). A couple of leaky defenses should have plenty of goals netted in this one. And will Boleslav be able to get out of last place?
It was a rough week last time out, going 0-3-1. It was also a rough week for the Czech men's team, losing a pair to Germany and Northern Ireland, officially eliminating them from next summer's World Cup. I look to turn it around with four plays this weekend:
Plzen (+131). My initial lean here was to take a surprising Liberec at home, but this number with Plzen is too tempting. They have yet to drop a point this season, and I'll see if I can ride that streak for one more week.
Ostrava / Jablonec DRAW (+215). Ostrava have played two home matches, both draws. Jablonec have played two away matches, both draws. They are 8th (Jablonec) and 12th (Ostrava) in the table, and Ostrava get a bit of a boost playing at home. Looks to be a good chance at another draw for both.
Slavia (+102). Olomouc is off to a hot start since being promoted, but I think they run into trouble this week. Gotta love the reigning champs at + money.
Boleslav / Brno 2.5 OVER (-108). A couple of leaky defenses should have plenty of goals netted in this one. And will Boleslav be able to get out of last place?
A real nice 3-1 weekend, including a +215 winner, gets me back in the + money. Three more this weekend, including one of the Friday matches:
Teplice (-133). A little square here laying some heavy juice, but Teplice has yet to lose at home this year, and I really don't trust Bohemians at any time, much less on the road.
Slovacko Pick (+105). Boleslav finally got a result last week, but they're in 14th place for a reason. They're a bad road team, and have been for three years. I really don't like betting on an inconsistent Slovacko side, but I'm taking them here.
Jablonec -1 (-129). Another straight fade of Jihlava on the road, I'm going to keep riding it until they prove me wrong. They lose on the road, and they lose big. Jablonec should take care of business.
A real nice 3-1 weekend, including a +215 winner, gets me back in the + money. Three more this weekend, including one of the Friday matches:
Teplice (-133). A little square here laying some heavy juice, but Teplice has yet to lose at home this year, and I really don't trust Bohemians at any time, much less on the road.
Slovacko Pick (+105). Boleslav finally got a result last week, but they're in 14th place for a reason. They're a bad road team, and have been for three years. I really don't like betting on an inconsistent Slovacko side, but I'm taking them here.
Jablonec -1 (-129). Another straight fade of Jihlava on the road, I'm going to keep riding it until they prove me wrong. They lose on the road, and they lose big. Jablonec should take care of business.
BohemiansPick (-121). Bohemians have yet to lose at home, and Jablonec have yet to win away (3 draws in 3 matches). I like the home team if the draw isn't in play, and I'll take them here.
Zlin +.5 (-129). Slavia, not surprisingly, are big favorites in this match, but I think it's unjustified. Zlin are 3-0-0 at home, while Slavia have yet to win away. Zlin have shown themselves quite competent when matching up with the big three in the league, and I like them to win or draw.
Plzen (+150). Boleslav are finally starting to come alive, and have dug themselves out from last place up to 11th. But Plzen have yet to lose a point in 7 matches this year (7-0-0), and I'm going to ride them until they fail to win. At this number I like them to keep it rolling.
BohemiansPick (-121). Bohemians have yet to lose at home, and Jablonec have yet to win away (3 draws in 3 matches). I like the home team if the draw isn't in play, and I'll take them here.
Zlin +.5 (-129). Slavia, not surprisingly, are big favorites in this match, but I think it's unjustified. Zlin are 3-0-0 at home, while Slavia have yet to win away. Zlin have shown themselves quite competent when matching up with the big three in the league, and I like them to win or draw.
Plzen (+150). Boleslav are finally starting to come alive, and have dug themselves out from last place up to 11th. But Plzen have yet to lose a point in 7 matches this year (7-0-0), and I'm going to ride them until they fail to win. At this number I like them to keep it rolling.
wash, just wanted to stop in, though I wouldnt normally touch this league with a 10-foot pole, youve quietly put up some reallly nice info. and its obvious you follow this league week-in, week out. (as I do with Italy, and others with their respective countries in here as well)
wash, just wanted to stop in, though I wouldnt normally touch this league with a 10-foot pole, youve quietly put up some reallly nice info. and its obvious you follow this league week-in, week out. (as I do with Italy, and others with their respective countries in here as well)
Three more for the weekend, although I've got a lean on a fourth:
Dukla Pick, +.5 (+122). This is a hard play to make, but I think it's the right one. It's tough to go against Sparta, but Dukla have yet to concede a goal at home yet this year. They play well at home, and they should be up for this lesser Prague derby. Sparta, meanwhile, have not been impressive on the road, winning just once, and looking rather poor in their last two matches away. I'll take Dukla to win or draw at a nice price.
Ostrava (+123). This is more of a situational play than anything else. Poor Zlin had to go all the way to Moscow for their Europa League match on Thursday, only to be soundly defeated. Now they have to hustle back and play another away match just three days later. Ostrava are coming off a nice 6-0 win in the Mol Cup and should be up for this one. Zlin is a newcomer to European competition, and unlike the teams that are there every year (Plzen, Sparta, Slavia) I don't think Zlin will handle it well.
Plzen / Slavia ML parlay (-158). This is about as square as it gets, but I like both of these teams this week in home matches against very weak opponents. Brno are absolutely dreadful, and Slavia should have no problems with them (although I can't lay -2). Plzen have yet to drop a point this year and should handle Bohemians.
This afternoon's match jumped off the page to me. At first glance, everything screams Liberec at +.5 +110. Teplice are a decent home side, having yet to lose this season (2-2-0), but Liberec have won three of four away matches and this one should be a good match. There's no reason Teplice should be such a heavy favorite in this one, but it seems too easy. What I've learned about the Czech league is that when it looks too good to be true it usually is. Even though everything says take Liberec to win or draw at + money, I'm going to stay off it.
Best of luck to all, and thanks for your comments.
Three more for the weekend, although I've got a lean on a fourth:
Dukla Pick, +.5 (+122). This is a hard play to make, but I think it's the right one. It's tough to go against Sparta, but Dukla have yet to concede a goal at home yet this year. They play well at home, and they should be up for this lesser Prague derby. Sparta, meanwhile, have not been impressive on the road, winning just once, and looking rather poor in their last two matches away. I'll take Dukla to win or draw at a nice price.
Ostrava (+123). This is more of a situational play than anything else. Poor Zlin had to go all the way to Moscow for their Europa League match on Thursday, only to be soundly defeated. Now they have to hustle back and play another away match just three days later. Ostrava are coming off a nice 6-0 win in the Mol Cup and should be up for this one. Zlin is a newcomer to European competition, and unlike the teams that are there every year (Plzen, Sparta, Slavia) I don't think Zlin will handle it well.
Plzen / Slavia ML parlay (-158). This is about as square as it gets, but I like both of these teams this week in home matches against very weak opponents. Brno are absolutely dreadful, and Slavia should have no problems with them (although I can't lay -2). Plzen have yet to drop a point this year and should handle Bohemians.
This afternoon's match jumped off the page to me. At first glance, everything screams Liberec at +.5 +110. Teplice are a decent home side, having yet to lose this season (2-2-0), but Liberec have won three of four away matches and this one should be a good match. There's no reason Teplice should be such a heavy favorite in this one, but it seems too easy. What I've learned about the Czech league is that when it looks too good to be true it usually is. Even though everything says take Liberec to win or draw at + money, I'm going to stay off it.
Best of luck to all, and thanks for your comments.
Looks like other people saw the same thing I did this afternoon -- Liberec is taking on some money. They're now at +.5 -126. I still can't do it, it seems too easy.
Looks like other people saw the same thing I did this afternoon -- Liberec is taking on some money. They're now at +.5 -126. I still can't do it, it seems too easy.
Bad week last weekend, although Plzen came through at +190 which was nice.
Today I like Dukla (+112) over Slovacko. Dukla is still without a loss at home this season, while Slovacko is without a win away. A draw is certainly possible, but I like Dukla to take care of it.
Likely more tomorrow, best of luck to everyone today.
Bad week last weekend, although Plzen came through at +190 which was nice.
Today I like Dukla (+112) over Slovacko. Dukla is still without a loss at home this season, while Slovacko is without a win away. A draw is certainly possible, but I like Dukla to take care of it.
Likely more tomorrow, best of luck to everyone today.
Two more for the weekend, including one later today:
Bohemians Pick (+110). I see this match as being about as close to 50/50 as it gets. If you take the draw out of play but give me even money on the better side, I'll take it every time.
Zlin (+132). This one is tricky because I don't know what to make of Boleslav this season. They've been underachieving mightily, and I don't know how much credit to give them for the past two seasons when they finished near top of the table. But even in their best days they've never been a strong away side, so I'll take Zlin at a nice price at home.
Two more for the weekend, including one later today:
Bohemians Pick (+110). I see this match as being about as close to 50/50 as it gets. If you take the draw out of play but give me even money on the better side, I'll take it every time.
Zlin (+132). This one is tricky because I don't know what to make of Boleslav this season. They've been underachieving mightily, and I don't know how much credit to give them for the past two seasons when they finished near top of the table. But even in their best days they've never been a strong away side, so I'll take Zlin at a nice price at home.
Bohemians (+111). This is just a straight play on Bohemians being a good home side, while Zlin struggles away. I also like the fact that Zlin had a midweek Mol Cup match, while Bohemians are eliminated and have been resting since last weekend. Give me the home side at + money.
Olomouc (-108). Olomouc have been continuing their surprising start to the season, and are still in 3rd place after 11 matches. They've yet to lose at home, while Teplice have yet to win away. At a short - price I'll take the home side.
Sparta & Boleslav ML parlay (-124). This is a square play, but we've got two strong teams at home facing much weaker opposition. Jihlava are an automatic fade on the road (-12 goal differential in 5 matches), but I really don't want to lay -1.5 with an inconsistent Boleslav. Similarly, Ostrava are a very weak away side, and Sparta should have little difficulty with them, but I don't want to lay -1.5.
In this afternoon's match I'll probably be on Plzen at -1 (-105). I'll likely keep betting this side until they finally lose or draw a match, I'm going to ride this streak to then end. But I'm not counting it in the overall totals as I'm not sure I'll play it yet.
Bohemians (+111). This is just a straight play on Bohemians being a good home side, while Zlin struggles away. I also like the fact that Zlin had a midweek Mol Cup match, while Bohemians are eliminated and have been resting since last weekend. Give me the home side at + money.
Olomouc (-108). Olomouc have been continuing their surprising start to the season, and are still in 3rd place after 11 matches. They've yet to lose at home, while Teplice have yet to win away. At a short - price I'll take the home side.
Sparta & Boleslav ML parlay (-124). This is a square play, but we've got two strong teams at home facing much weaker opposition. Jihlava are an automatic fade on the road (-12 goal differential in 5 matches), but I really don't want to lay -1.5 with an inconsistent Boleslav. Similarly, Ostrava are a very weak away side, and Sparta should have little difficulty with them, but I don't want to lay -1.5.
In this afternoon's match I'll probably be on Plzen at -1 (-105). I'll likely keep betting this side until they finally lose or draw a match, I'm going to ride this streak to then end. But I'm not counting it in the overall totals as I'm not sure I'll play it yet.
washhead, good luck & good info tks for the heads up on Plzen, Im on it. I honestly dont want to add anymore leagues to what I already have setup, no time for it. but h*ck, If Im gonna spend a few mins scrolling thru the Azerbajan Premier this AM for godsakes, i cant sit here and say to self "avoid those eastern europeans". LOL.
washhead, good luck & good info tks for the heads up on Plzen, Im on it. I honestly dont want to add anymore leagues to what I already have setup, no time for it. but h*ck, If Im gonna spend a few mins scrolling thru the Azerbajan Premier this AM for godsakes, i cant sit here and say to self "avoid those eastern europeans". LOL.
The Czech league is really the only smaller league I follow, although I've been watching the Slovakian league a little bit and might dabble in that next season (no way I'm even looking at Azerbaijan!) It took me a few years but I think I finally have a handle on this league, although the results would suggest I have a ways to go.
Plzen have taken all 33 points from their first 11 matches, and I'm going to ride this streak until it ends. They've been the class of this league for four years now, and they could easily make it to the holiday break before dropping a point.
The Czech league is really the only smaller league I follow, although I've been watching the Slovakian league a little bit and might dabble in that next season (no way I'm even looking at Azerbaijan!) It took me a few years but I think I finally have a handle on this league, although the results would suggest I have a ways to go.
Plzen have taken all 33 points from their first 11 matches, and I'm going to ride this streak until it ends. They've been the class of this league for four years now, and they could easily make it to the holiday break before dropping a point.
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