Denver is #1 in the league in regards to
defensive sacks per pass attempt at 8.5% of pass attempts. On the offensive side of the ball, they are
10th in the league getting sacked 34 times (6% of pass attempts). The Bengals have only been sacked 27 times,
(5.7% of sacks) which is middle of the pack.
However in the past 2 weeks since Dalton went down they have been sacked
7 times on 58 pass attempts (12% of total passing plays). The solution to this would be to just rush
the ball for both teams, however that is also the strength of each defense at
#1 and #4 in the league respectively. If
they can only get 1-3 yards on 1st down, they will be forced to
throw throughout the game. The more they
will drop back, the more sacks.
Last week there were 8 sacks in the
Cinc/49ers game and the week before that, 5 in a shootout with the
Steelers. Denver/Steelers had 5 sacks as
well last week with 8 coming in the prior week with Oakland and Denver (anyone
remember Khalil Mack sacking Brock 5 times by himself)?
This game seems destined for 5+ sacks, taking
the O5 Sacks for the game.
Denver is #1 in the league in regards to
defensive sacks per pass attempt at 8.5% of pass attempts. On the offensive side of the ball, they are
10th in the league getting sacked 34 times (6% of pass attempts). The Bengals have only been sacked 27 times,
(5.7% of sacks) which is middle of the pack.
However in the past 2 weeks since Dalton went down they have been sacked
7 times on 58 pass attempts (12% of total passing plays). The solution to this would be to just rush
the ball for both teams, however that is also the strength of each defense at
#1 and #4 in the league respectively. If
they can only get 1-3 yards on 1st down, they will be forced to
throw throughout the game. The more they
will drop back, the more sacks.
Last week there were 8 sacks in the
Cinc/49ers game and the week before that, 5 in a shootout with the
Steelers. Denver/Steelers had 5 sacks as
well last week with 8 coming in the prior week with Oakland and Denver (anyone
remember Khalil Mack sacking Brock 5 times by himself)?
This game seems destined for 5+ sacks, taking
the O5 Sacks for the game.
Love this thought, the line, ml, o/u are too suspect week in and out at this point in the season...
I saw the MN / NYG o/u Sacks at 2.5 last night! Which was done in 1Q.
GL HF Drive Safe & Sober
To an extent. I'd rather play matchups and probabilities to find any advantage I can find. I would assume ODB being out with impact their passing game which would result in more sacks and turnovers as they lose their #1 option without a running game to speak of. I was heavy on Minn.
Same with Seattle/St. Louis. I avoided Seattle at all costs and grabbed St. Louis in all teasers. Seattle matches up terribly with the Rams as they have the best D-line in football which has always caused huge fits for their offensive line and Wilson. That's the reason you can never say because St. Louis beat Seattle, they are better. It's about matchups, always.
In this game, both have very stout rushing defenses and strong pass defense that get to the quarterback. This game based on matchups and probabilities should be U39.5 and O5 sacks, O10 punts.
It's the same thing for all prop bets. For example, the two most likely players to score the first TD for either side in my opinion are Demaryius Thomas (+650) and Tyler Kroft (+1000). The Bengals have had problems with #1 receivers the past few weeks with receiving yards being dominated by the #1 WR for the opposing team. In contrast, Denver has been really strong against the pass to opposing receivers (excluding Brown as he's just too good) but have been hurt by tight ends if anything. With Eifert out, the only option in the middle of the field is Tyler Kroft (+1000).
It's going to be cold weather, in a low scoring game. I'm not leaning either way on the winner or spread, but rather the U39.5 and props.
Final card
U39.5
U20 1H
O5 Sacks
O3.5 Field Goals
No score in 1st 7 minutes and 30 seconds
And if you want a flyer, Tyler Kroft (+1000) or Thomas (+650) for who scores first.
Love this thought, the line, ml, o/u are too suspect week in and out at this point in the season...
I saw the MN / NYG o/u Sacks at 2.5 last night! Which was done in 1Q.
GL HF Drive Safe & Sober
To an extent. I'd rather play matchups and probabilities to find any advantage I can find. I would assume ODB being out with impact their passing game which would result in more sacks and turnovers as they lose their #1 option without a running game to speak of. I was heavy on Minn.
Same with Seattle/St. Louis. I avoided Seattle at all costs and grabbed St. Louis in all teasers. Seattle matches up terribly with the Rams as they have the best D-line in football which has always caused huge fits for their offensive line and Wilson. That's the reason you can never say because St. Louis beat Seattle, they are better. It's about matchups, always.
In this game, both have very stout rushing defenses and strong pass defense that get to the quarterback. This game based on matchups and probabilities should be U39.5 and O5 sacks, O10 punts.
It's the same thing for all prop bets. For example, the two most likely players to score the first TD for either side in my opinion are Demaryius Thomas (+650) and Tyler Kroft (+1000). The Bengals have had problems with #1 receivers the past few weeks with receiving yards being dominated by the #1 WR for the opposing team. In contrast, Denver has been really strong against the pass to opposing receivers (excluding Brown as he's just too good) but have been hurt by tight ends if anything. With Eifert out, the only option in the middle of the field is Tyler Kroft (+1000).
It's going to be cold weather, in a low scoring game. I'm not leaning either way on the winner or spread, but rather the U39.5 and props.
Final card
U39.5
U20 1H
O5 Sacks
O3.5 Field Goals
No score in 1st 7 minutes and 30 seconds
And if you want a flyer, Tyler Kroft (+1000) or Thomas (+650) for who scores first.
To an extent. I'd rather play matchups and probabilities to find any advantage I can find. I would assume ODB being out with impact their passing game which would result in more sacks and turnovers as they lose their #1 option without a running game to speak of. I was heavy on Minn.
Same with Seattle/St. Louis. I avoided Seattle at all costs and grabbed St. Louis in all teasers. Seattle matches up terribly with the Rams as they have the best D-line in football which has always caused huge fits for their offensive line and Wilson. That's the reason you can never say because St. Louis beat Seattle, they are better. It's about matchups, always.
In this game, both have very stout rushing defenses and strong pass defense that get to the quarterback. This game based on matchups and probabilities should be U39.5 and O5 sacks, O10 punts.
It's the same thing for all prop bets. For example, the two most likely players to score the first TD for either side in my opinion are Demaryius Thomas (+650) and Tyler Kroft (+1000). The Bengals have had problems with #1 receivers the past few weeks with receiving yards being dominated by the #1 WR for the opposing team. In contrast, Denver has been really strong against the pass to opposing receivers (excluding Brown as he's just too good) but have been hurt by tight ends if anything. With Eifert out, the only option in the middle of the field is Tyler Kroft (+1000).
It's going to be cold weather, in a low scoring game. I'm not leaning either way on the winner or spread, but rather the U39.5 and props.
Final card
U39.5
U20 1H
O5 Sacks
O3.5 Field Goals
No score in 1st 7 minutes and 30 seconds
And if you want a flyer, Tyler Kroft (+1000) or Thomas (+650) for who scores first.
Nice thread and write ups ,, could use more like yours here.
I'm on a few props for some of the same reasons as you... Osweiler under 250 yds passing for a good amount.. in play game total under 42.5 for a pretty good amount also.. and I have Hill over 39.5 yrds rushing for a standard wager. I don't think Osweiler sees the end of this game on the field.
To an extent. I'd rather play matchups and probabilities to find any advantage I can find. I would assume ODB being out with impact their passing game which would result in more sacks and turnovers as they lose their #1 option without a running game to speak of. I was heavy on Minn.
Same with Seattle/St. Louis. I avoided Seattle at all costs and grabbed St. Louis in all teasers. Seattle matches up terribly with the Rams as they have the best D-line in football which has always caused huge fits for their offensive line and Wilson. That's the reason you can never say because St. Louis beat Seattle, they are better. It's about matchups, always.
In this game, both have very stout rushing defenses and strong pass defense that get to the quarterback. This game based on matchups and probabilities should be U39.5 and O5 sacks, O10 punts.
It's the same thing for all prop bets. For example, the two most likely players to score the first TD for either side in my opinion are Demaryius Thomas (+650) and Tyler Kroft (+1000). The Bengals have had problems with #1 receivers the past few weeks with receiving yards being dominated by the #1 WR for the opposing team. In contrast, Denver has been really strong against the pass to opposing receivers (excluding Brown as he's just too good) but have been hurt by tight ends if anything. With Eifert out, the only option in the middle of the field is Tyler Kroft (+1000).
It's going to be cold weather, in a low scoring game. I'm not leaning either way on the winner or spread, but rather the U39.5 and props.
Final card
U39.5
U20 1H
O5 Sacks
O3.5 Field Goals
No score in 1st 7 minutes and 30 seconds
And if you want a flyer, Tyler Kroft (+1000) or Thomas (+650) for who scores first.
Nice thread and write ups ,, could use more like yours here.
I'm on a few props for some of the same reasons as you... Osweiler under 250 yds passing for a good amount.. in play game total under 42.5 for a pretty good amount also.. and I have Hill over 39.5 yrds rushing for a standard wager. I don't think Osweiler sees the end of this game on the field.
O5 Sacks was a push. Had 2 chances in the final seconds. If McCarron falls on the ball that's fumbled, it's another sack and basically game over. If they ruled the play before it a strip sack fumble on the review, it's over. Thought it looked like an empty hand, either way we'll take the push and go 3-1 and the loss being by 2 missed field goals. Onto week 17!
O5 Sacks was a push. Had 2 chances in the final seconds. If McCarron falls on the ball that's fumbled, it's another sack and basically game over. If they ruled the play before it a strip sack fumble on the review, it's over. Thought it looked like an empty hand, either way we'll take the push and go 3-1 and the loss being by 2 missed field goals. Onto week 17!
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.