YTD NFL: 26-17 +20.49 units
Light card today. Many of lines offer no edge vs my own power ratings so better to pass.
1. Raiders v Falcons over 48 2 units
This is one of those west coast teams travelling east for a 1PM EST kick off. I like for the Falcons to get the jump on the Raiders in this one. Raiders allowing 411 yards per game. Atlanta, despite being 5-0 is also allowing quite a bit of yardage on defence (345).
The big factor in this play however is the fact that the Raiders are a very good West Coast travelling to East Coast "over" team. (10-1 over their last 11 travelling East with a total of 39 or more) Remember week two wheb the Raiders travelled East to face the Dolphins and allowed the offensively inept Dolphins to score 35 points on them 35-13 loss (over).
2. Dolphns -5 v St. Louis 2 units
This is a very tricky game but believe it or not my number makes this game the Dolphins -7.5 so I have stay true to my power numbers and bet them accordingly.
3. Buffalo Bills +5 +102 v Arizona (3 units)
My biggest bet of the day and it all falls back to public perception. The Bills have allowed a ton of yards the last two weeks and allowed the 49 ers to score 45 points against them but let's face it. The Cardinals, who themselves lost last week are not the 49ers. Road teams that allowed 45 or more points the previous game (also on the road) are 10-1 ATS the last 11 times that happened, meaning based on that stat alone, we have a 90% ATS angle in play.
But that isn't enough. The Bills got eaten alive the week pior to the Patriots... again, nowhere near as bad as the Cardinals. The Bills los that game to NE by 24 points. So, how have teams off back to back losses of 20 or more points done? 6-0 ATS the last 2 years.
The public is looking at those two big losses right now and loving the Cardinals without looking deeper into the stats. Acrizona lost last week and have been "out-statted" in 4 of their games this year including their wins so while they may have been winning, their opponents were dominating yeradage.
Arizona has become a public darling since beating the Patriots while the Bills have fallen out of favor since being killed their last two games. Expect them to fix the ship defensively for this game and keep it close and perhaps escape with the outright upset victory. They are only scoring 18.8 ppg this season ranking near the bottom of the league in that category. Buffalo scoring 23.6.
Defense is the issue .. but given what I wrote above, expect Buffalo to contain Arizona and keep this game within FG distance throughout.
My numbers make this game Arizona -2 and as a result, I feel like I'm catching a ton of value on the underdog Bills.
That's it. Maybe a small play on the late game. We'll see how these games play out.
Cheers