Mountain West record: 9-4, 1-0ml, 1-0 teasers +10.5
Yesterday: 4-0, +6.5u
Had a nice day yesterday - was real confident in those picks making three 2unit picks after making 2 only two 2unit picks in the previous three weeks. What we learned:
- Fade jumpshooting teams at the end of tournaments.
- Kemba Walker is good, really good.
- SDS can at least push in the 1h
Tuesdays plays (might take a look at some of the lines that aren't out yet but nothing is jumping out at me)
Mountain West Play
Missouri -18.5 1u
Wyoming v. Mizzou -18 (-120) (in Cancun)
As with all big lines, I looked at the dog here in Wyoming. Simply, they have yet to play well, barely covering vs a W. Ill at home (had I know that their two best guards were definitely playing, I would have been on them). A big factor in lines this big is tempo as we have seen with the likes of st. Pete's - it is hard to cover big lines at 62 possessions. However, Both WY and Mizzou like to get up and down the court. This one should easily be in the 70's and could get to 75 (KP has it at Mizzou -19, 73 poss). With that a play on WY is out and I thought I would just pass. However, the up tempo will play right into Mizzou's hands who have the more talented team. WY turns the ball over too much and Mizzou should have lots of easy baskets. Anderson wants to see a full 40 minutes of hell every time. There will be ugly stretches for WY, enough to make this a 25pt win for Mizzou.
Other plays:
Providence -5 1u
LaSalle v. Providence -5 (in Cancun)
I looked at this game because KP has it at 8. This is a step up for Providence who hasn't played a a team as good as 151st ranked Lasalle! What put it on my card was the fact that LaSalle appears to be a jump shooting team getting 63% of their points from 2-pointers, but hardly getting to the line. Providence is only allowing 34% from the field so far. That may be a result of the poor competition, but we will see.
Canisius -5 (-120) 1u
Canisius returns 5 seniors but no point guard. However, they have been taking care of the ball well enough, under 20% TO rate, and playing defense the way an experienced team should. Buffalo is just the opposite - young, very young. Might be a factor in February, but taking them In Cancun, against a veteran Canisius squad? They already lost on the road to a bad Youngstown St. team by DD. KP had it at 8, and I agree here. Good spot for Canisius to get the W by DD. Went to play this and the line had jumped from 4.5 to 5.5 and 6 other places.
Other leans:
Wazzou and Houston
GL with your wagers today gents.