To give you an idea of that "old-school" mentality Italy has been trying to overcome the past decade which frustrated Conte to no end. Napolis owner (Laurentiis) went on record this week saying the Inter match this wknd is more important than ManC, and wondered.....OUT LOUD...... why their regulars arent being rested today. I dunno what its like in other countries in europe regarding social aspect of things but in Italy its not wise to chop the hand of man whom signs off on ur paychecks. so the players keep mum about it. but ya gotta admit...... Roma, ManC, and Inter. consecutively? thats one hell of a gauntlet to run.
Napoli +.5 @+154, to win @+450 - splitting hairs. a lot of attention being given to the strikeforce up front on both teams, each with players whom just need an inch of space and one chance. but I keep staring at the midfield matchups, and this is where the game will be won. both love to push forward, and Napoli has a penchant for high-pressing. which is the key to this play; yes, both teams have excellent defensive stats and have conceded few goals. but I always felt this kinda stuff is "fake" stats. they both consistently go up against opponents whom concede possession against them. Ive always felt the best way to beat the BIG Boys of europe (barca, real, juve, munich, psg etc etc....) is to attack them. ya just cant sit back and let them come. this match is gonna be worth its price of admission.
the O/U?? just cant get it out of my head that BOTH squads would be thrilled for a draw. I know Guardiola will. im thinking "they got 65-70 minutes to hit this?" cuz if its tight in the 2nd half, neither will take risks to leave themselves exposed to their opponents offensive firepower. PASS.
Maribor +2 @+104 - in Klopp we trust. he'll over-think something which will keep this close. 'Pool shouldnt be laying -2 on the road with juice to anyone in Europe at this moment. Maribor are no pushovers at home either; its just that nobody knows much about them. home side have found back of net in 11 of their 12 CL matches @home since '14 & havent been beaten by more than a goal in all 17 of their UCL games here the past 5 years.
To give you an idea of that "old-school" mentality Italy has been trying to overcome the past decade which frustrated Conte to no end. Napolis owner (Laurentiis) went on record this week saying the Inter match this wknd is more important than ManC, and wondered.....OUT LOUD...... why their regulars arent being rested today. I dunno what its like in other countries in europe regarding social aspect of things but in Italy its not wise to chop the hand of man whom signs off on ur paychecks. so the players keep mum about it. but ya gotta admit...... Roma, ManC, and Inter. consecutively? thats one hell of a gauntlet to run.
Napoli +.5 @+154, to win @+450 - splitting hairs. a lot of attention being given to the strikeforce up front on both teams, each with players whom just need an inch of space and one chance. but I keep staring at the midfield matchups, and this is where the game will be won. both love to push forward, and Napoli has a penchant for high-pressing. which is the key to this play; yes, both teams have excellent defensive stats and have conceded few goals. but I always felt this kinda stuff is "fake" stats. they both consistently go up against opponents whom concede possession against them. Ive always felt the best way to beat the BIG Boys of europe (barca, real, juve, munich, psg etc etc....) is to attack them. ya just cant sit back and let them come. this match is gonna be worth its price of admission.
the O/U?? just cant get it out of my head that BOTH squads would be thrilled for a draw. I know Guardiola will. im thinking "they got 65-70 minutes to hit this?" cuz if its tight in the 2nd half, neither will take risks to leave themselves exposed to their opponents offensive firepower. PASS.
Maribor +2 @+104 - in Klopp we trust. he'll over-think something which will keep this close. 'Pool shouldnt be laying -2 on the road with juice to anyone in Europe at this moment. Maribor are no pushovers at home either; its just that nobody knows much about them. home side have found back of net in 11 of their 12 CL matches @home since '14 & havent been beaten by more than a goal in all 17 of their UCL games here the past 5 years.
Feyenoord/Shakhtar over 3 @+125 - I get the feeling Dutch soccer has slid a few notches, though Feye are still near top of table in league, they were thumped in both of their CL matches and running the risk of being eliminated entirely after just the 3rd game. but before we write them off too quickly here, check the Ukranians road record in CL. annual participants have just one win in their past 8 CL roadies, and just 3 in the 15 theyve played since 2013; theyve scored just ONE GOAL in their past 8 UCL travels; and they are favored on the road here? ehhh. Malmo, Young Boys, Fenerbahce; barely beat Austria Wien 1-0. ALL those clubs are = or less than the talent Feye has assembled. Part of the reason they have been listed as road favs is their Napoli win; but visitors led every statistical category except the most important one. I get the feeling this could end up a wide-open,back-n-forth game due to the home sides need to remain 'relevant' + the visitors obviously needing to keep pace with the two behemoths. dare I even suggest this is a "must-win" game if Ukranians are to have any shot at advancing.
Apoel/Dort over 3.5 @+130 - similar motivation, Dort staring down the barrel of a gun and another slipup here and their CL adventure is toast. far too much firepower up front for the Cypriots to handle but I think this is gonna be a LOT closer than people expect. APOEL doesnt have a pretty record, though they score at home (8 of last 9 CL); take a cloer look and when one of those teams from the 'Power Leagues' visits its usually a bad result.
Monaco/Besitkas over 3 @even
Besitkas +.5 @+150 - I initially had a nice writeup, before doing my due diligence, on how I felt the Turkish side still wasnt getting any respect.they beat Porto on road & Leipzig impressively. but given the scenario - Monaco needs points badly - but they are in a really bad run of form. (however, again.... I toss out league form) theres a lot of quality & experience on this Turkish side with Pepe, Quaresma, Medel, & Adriano, but when they gotta travel to France bad things tend to happen. and they leak goals too. this is going to be a back n forth game and putting a little more on the 'over' here though I do feel the Turkish side have enuff to nab a point here.
Sevilla + over 2.5 @+190 - (really like this one) Russians playing very well and held 'Pool to a draw here last round but this is just a gut feeling as Sevilla hails from a much tougher league and just feel they have far too much for the home side to overcome.
UCL 8-team over 1.5 goals Parlay @+413 making this a regular play. following my gut instincts, given the situations in 6 of these matchups, i feel i only have to worry about 2 games. and those 2 matches involve teams whom really need to win.
Feyenoord/Shakhtar over 3 @+125 - I get the feeling Dutch soccer has slid a few notches, though Feye are still near top of table in league, they were thumped in both of their CL matches and running the risk of being eliminated entirely after just the 3rd game. but before we write them off too quickly here, check the Ukranians road record in CL. annual participants have just one win in their past 8 CL roadies, and just 3 in the 15 theyve played since 2013; theyve scored just ONE GOAL in their past 8 UCL travels; and they are favored on the road here? ehhh. Malmo, Young Boys, Fenerbahce; barely beat Austria Wien 1-0. ALL those clubs are = or less than the talent Feye has assembled. Part of the reason they have been listed as road favs is their Napoli win; but visitors led every statistical category except the most important one. I get the feeling this could end up a wide-open,back-n-forth game due to the home sides need to remain 'relevant' + the visitors obviously needing to keep pace with the two behemoths. dare I even suggest this is a "must-win" game if Ukranians are to have any shot at advancing.
Apoel/Dort over 3.5 @+130 - similar motivation, Dort staring down the barrel of a gun and another slipup here and their CL adventure is toast. far too much firepower up front for the Cypriots to handle but I think this is gonna be a LOT closer than people expect. APOEL doesnt have a pretty record, though they score at home (8 of last 9 CL); take a cloer look and when one of those teams from the 'Power Leagues' visits its usually a bad result.
Monaco/Besitkas over 3 @even
Besitkas +.5 @+150 - I initially had a nice writeup, before doing my due diligence, on how I felt the Turkish side still wasnt getting any respect.they beat Porto on road & Leipzig impressively. but given the scenario - Monaco needs points badly - but they are in a really bad run of form. (however, again.... I toss out league form) theres a lot of quality & experience on this Turkish side with Pepe, Quaresma, Medel, & Adriano, but when they gotta travel to France bad things tend to happen. and they leak goals too. this is going to be a back n forth game and putting a little more on the 'over' here though I do feel the Turkish side have enuff to nab a point here.
Sevilla + over 2.5 @+190 - (really like this one) Russians playing very well and held 'Pool to a draw here last round but this is just a gut feeling as Sevilla hails from a much tougher league and just feel they have far too much for the home side to overcome.
UCL 8-team over 1.5 goals Parlay @+413 making this a regular play. following my gut instincts, given the situations in 6 of these matchups, i feel i only have to worry about 2 games. and those 2 matches involve teams whom really need to win.
Specimen - Looks good buddy, will be on a few of these myself; Added stat on Pool; Since start of 2016, they've only won four out of 32 PL road matches by more than a goal
Specimen - Looks good buddy, will be on a few of these myself; Added stat on Pool; Since start of 2016, they've only won four out of 32 PL road matches by more than a goal
Whiskey, I was thinking of that last night...... for fun i just typed up the finals of all the matches just by thinking how they would play out and came up with 26 (but its the CL....ya just cant use historical references too much, nor trends, nor league form)
Settle GL today, i think the dogs be barking but then again, ive had my head served back to me on a platter with CL sometimes.
Whiskey, I was thinking of that last night...... for fun i just typed up the finals of all the matches just by thinking how they would play out and came up with 26 (but its the CL....ya just cant use historical references too much, nor trends, nor league form)
Settle GL today, i think the dogs be barking but then again, ive had my head served back to me on a platter with CL sometimes.
I've noticed that what happens a lot in these games where teams need to win, but also can't afford to lose play WAY more not to lose than to win...
see: Wales/Ireland & Ukraine/Croatia --- this is in no way scientific, but you saw it in Brann/Molde the other day as well with both teams scoring in bunches, they played to 1-0 becasue neither wanted to lose.
I've noticed that what happens a lot in these games where teams need to win, but also can't afford to lose play WAY more not to lose than to win...
see: Wales/Ireland & Ukraine/Croatia --- this is in no way scientific, but you saw it in Brann/Molde the other day as well with both teams scoring in bunches, they played to 1-0 becasue neither wanted to lose.
I posted a version this in P66 thread before the game started, didn't have time earlier but Monaco just isn't the same Monaco vs. good teams this year. That's 2 goals in 3 CL (two at home) matches, and while they might still be getting results in Ligue 1, they won't be advancing from this group stage.
They were missing Ghezzal, which was surprising and no one is saying why, and Subotic as well. Jadim didn't go to Jorge who was called up to play for Brazil at the break, or Thomas Lemar - maybe Monaco is trying to sell both of them and don't want to see them hurth?
I posted a version this in P66 thread before the game started, didn't have time earlier but Monaco just isn't the same Monaco vs. good teams this year. That's 2 goals in 3 CL (two at home) matches, and while they might still be getting results in Ligue 1, they won't be advancing from this group stage.
They were missing Ghezzal, which was surprising and no one is saying why, and Subotic as well. Jadim didn't go to Jorge who was called up to play for Brazil at the break, or Thomas Lemar - maybe Monaco is trying to sell both of them and don't want to see them hurth?
cr*p day. parlay saved my butt big time. didnt see that touchdown coming from 'Pool at all.
Loose that comment regarding teams playing not to lose is true in many instances. regarding monaco, i wasnt aware of those things either, tks fer posting here. just felt they arent the same team as last year. and turkish side has lot of quality.
whiskey shoulda hammered that ehh? put some pocket change on that at last minute cuz you got me thinking. but i sure as heck dont wanna be depending on parlays.
Bollox Fish n Chips 1, Pasta 0. and looks like ur boys nabbed a great point today too skip the gym session and stick with the beers, u deserve it.
cr*p day. parlay saved my butt big time. didnt see that touchdown coming from 'Pool at all.
Loose that comment regarding teams playing not to lose is true in many instances. regarding monaco, i wasnt aware of those things either, tks fer posting here. just felt they arent the same team as last year. and turkish side has lot of quality.
whiskey shoulda hammered that ehh? put some pocket change on that at last minute cuz you got me thinking. but i sure as heck dont wanna be depending on parlays.
Bollox Fish n Chips 1, Pasta 0. and looks like ur boys nabbed a great point today too skip the gym session and stick with the beers, u deserve it.
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