8/04/17
100-114-7, RoR –6.87% (vs 11/10 odds 48.8%)
Mets +117, FG, Darvish / deGrom
Mariners -154, FG, Paxton / Hammel
BOL
Mets: The way I see it people are bandwagon jumping on the Dodger-Darvish deal. This is much the same as the Yankee-Gray deal yesterday. One nice signing and suddenly, the big market, public popularity team becomes an unbeatable giant. Nonsense. Team accomplishments aside, Darvish is 14-8 in the quality start department, explaining why the Dodgers coveted him, but; he is only 9-13 in the head-to-head department, so the Dodgers better figure he also needs some run support, and the Dodgers are not a juggernaut versus quality right handed starters lately.
Mariners: Hammel has been a disappointment for the Royals this year at 10-11 for quality starts and only 5-16 head-to-head versus his opposite number. Paxton is firmly established as a top gun lefty starter at 13-5 in both categories. He alone is worth about 79 cents of line value over Hammel. Currently the Mariners are also a better righty hitting team than the Royals are versus lefty. Please don’t bother me with the “at home” analysis. The Mariners are 4-3 when Paxton takes the ball on the road and the Royals are 4-9 when Hammel takes the ball “at home”.
BOL
Final