2016: +$73 Clemson +650 50/325 to win Championship helped grab a small profit for my futures last year.
2017:
RSW's:
Air Force Under 5 -110 $110/100 One of my favorite teams over the years to wager on is facing some huge personnel changes. They only return 1 defensive starter, lose 12 of their top 13 tacklers from last year (including legendary Weston Steelhammer), Jacobi Owens and their go-to WR Jalen Robinette. Add in a schedule that has them traveling to Michigan in week 3 (which starts a string of 11 games without a bye), an improved Mountain West from top to bottom, and the Service Academy games... Just don't see them topping this number.
Michigan Under 9 -120 $120/100 Another team with a lot of new faces in important positions. Only 5 returning starters... I have them 3-1 at the bye, then it gets tough in Big10 play. @PSU and @Wisc, home for Ohio State. Can't discount Michigan State in the rivalry game and @Indiana, vs. Minnesota are interesting games. Even if they sweep every game they would still have to go 2-2 against Florida, Penn St, Wisconsin and Ohio State to beat this number and I don't see that happening.
Missouri Over 6.5 +110 $100/110 There is talent and potential here, they just need to win 3 SEC games as they should beat Missouri St, Purdue, Idaho and UConn. Finding 3 wins in the SEC East isn't a daunting task this year.
Penn State Over 9.5 -120 $120/100 With another easy OOC schedule (Akron, Pitt, Georgia St) I can afford 2 losses in conference. I don't think that will happen as these guys will be sharp from the start. 3 game stretch starting on 10/21 with Michigan, @ OSU, @ MSU will the only tough spot in the schedule.
TCU Over 8 -110 $110/100 This is the one that could be dead by November or drive me nuts into Thanksgiving... the talent is there, I think a more mature Kenny Hill will be the key as the Frogs had too many inconsistent offensive games last year, 3 times scoring 10 points or less in Big12 games.
2016: +$73 Clemson +650 50/325 to win Championship helped grab a small profit for my futures last year.
2017:
RSW's:
Air Force Under 5 -110 $110/100 One of my favorite teams over the years to wager on is facing some huge personnel changes. They only return 1 defensive starter, lose 12 of their top 13 tacklers from last year (including legendary Weston Steelhammer), Jacobi Owens and their go-to WR Jalen Robinette. Add in a schedule that has them traveling to Michigan in week 3 (which starts a string of 11 games without a bye), an improved Mountain West from top to bottom, and the Service Academy games... Just don't see them topping this number.
Michigan Under 9 -120 $120/100 Another team with a lot of new faces in important positions. Only 5 returning starters... I have them 3-1 at the bye, then it gets tough in Big10 play. @PSU and @Wisc, home for Ohio State. Can't discount Michigan State in the rivalry game and @Indiana, vs. Minnesota are interesting games. Even if they sweep every game they would still have to go 2-2 against Florida, Penn St, Wisconsin and Ohio State to beat this number and I don't see that happening.
Missouri Over 6.5 +110 $100/110 There is talent and potential here, they just need to win 3 SEC games as they should beat Missouri St, Purdue, Idaho and UConn. Finding 3 wins in the SEC East isn't a daunting task this year.
Penn State Over 9.5 -120 $120/100 With another easy OOC schedule (Akron, Pitt, Georgia St) I can afford 2 losses in conference. I don't think that will happen as these guys will be sharp from the start. 3 game stretch starting on 10/21 with Michigan, @ OSU, @ MSU will the only tough spot in the schedule.
TCU Over 8 -110 $110/100 This is the one that could be dead by November or drive me nuts into Thanksgiving... the talent is there, I think a more mature Kenny Hill will be the key as the Frogs had too many inconsistent offensive games last year, 3 times scoring 10 points or less in Big12 games.
SMU to win AAC +3500 $25/875 I focused on the West division here because South Florida should roll in the East and these give me nice hedge options. Houston will be good, but I need to see what Applewhite does there, I expect Tulsa to be down and Memphis is not impressing me as of now.
Miami to win ACC +525 $25/131 Another case of focusing on a division with a hedge option in the Championship game... Canes have the edge on 5 of the 6 other teams in the Coastal on defense and VTech is going to be down this year.
Penn State to win Big10 +450 $25/113 My thoughts on PSU are stated in post #1...
TCU to win Big12 +1000 $25/250 4-5 teams can win this conference so at these odds, why not?
SMU to win AAC +3500 $25/875 I focused on the West division here because South Florida should roll in the East and these give me nice hedge options. Houston will be good, but I need to see what Applewhite does there, I expect Tulsa to be down and Memphis is not impressing me as of now.
Miami to win ACC +525 $25/131 Another case of focusing on a division with a hedge option in the Championship game... Canes have the edge on 5 of the 6 other teams in the Coastal on defense and VTech is going to be down this year.
Penn State to win Big10 +450 $25/113 My thoughts on PSU are stated in post #1...
TCU to win Big12 +1000 $25/250 4-5 teams can win this conference so at these odds, why not?
I took the 2 best teams from 2 conferences that are nearly guaranteed a Playoff spot. I can hedge, I can ride them out... I will get more into these teams in a few weeks with my "Teams that need to show me something 2017" thread.
I took the 2 best teams from 2 conferences that are nearly guaranteed a Playoff spot. I can hedge, I can ride them out... I will get more into these teams in a few weeks with my "Teams that need to show me something 2017" thread.
MIAMI = Think they sweep right through the Coastal ...Defense will be top 5.... Running game and 2nd yr. WR lwill be Fantastic ....Hoping the True FR> wins the QB Job ...
SMU love the Mustangs this season ...Over 5 looks like a mistake.....Not sure they win the AAC , but at 35-1 it is a must wager ....
TCU = So Much returning talent ...Could get into the new Conference championship . 10-1 = Value ..... Stoops oddly leaving OU should help open the door ...
SEASON WIN TOTALS =
Missouri is going to compete for the SEC EAST IMNHO .... While I put Georgia at the top , Missouri could be right on their heels ....Over 6.5 was a insta bet for me ..
MICHIGAN is a really young team , Believe they lose 4+ with this schedule ,,,,
Air Force is headed for a bad year ......
BEST OF LUCK BROTHER ...
MUCH RESPECT
ENJOY YOUR SUMMER
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
MIAMI = Think they sweep right through the Coastal ...Defense will be top 5.... Running game and 2nd yr. WR lwill be Fantastic ....Hoping the True FR> wins the QB Job ...
SMU love the Mustangs this season ...Over 5 looks like a mistake.....Not sure they win the AAC , but at 35-1 it is a must wager ....
TCU = So Much returning talent ...Could get into the new Conference championship . 10-1 = Value ..... Stoops oddly leaving OU should help open the door ...
SEASON WIN TOTALS =
Missouri is going to compete for the SEC EAST IMNHO .... While I put Georgia at the top , Missouri could be right on their heels ....Over 6.5 was a insta bet for me ..
MICHIGAN is a really young team , Believe they lose 4+ with this schedule ,,,,
Didn't say it was a good play, said "at that + money it's not a bad play".
My site moved them to O/U 9 -115 so there is action on the Over.
It is an awful play. Look at the schedule. They are slight favorites in the very first, quite losable game, vs. Florida for which some solid cappers here believe the Gators could be favored. That, if it happens leaves a single loss to get the over (PSU Wisconsin OSU and that's just the murderer's row I'm naming). The bet could be dead after the very game.
This isn't Hawaii coming from Australia, a bye last year for Harbaugh. 35 pt favorites.
+135 is absolute crap for such a play.
You're betting them to get 8 wins but 10 wins at +135 is not bad. Come on. Absolutely ridiculous.
Didn't say it was a good play, said "at that + money it's not a bad play".
My site moved them to O/U 9 -115 so there is action on the Over.
It is an awful play. Look at the schedule. They are slight favorites in the very first, quite losable game, vs. Florida for which some solid cappers here believe the Gators could be favored. That, if it happens leaves a single loss to get the over (PSU Wisconsin OSU and that's just the murderer's row I'm naming). The bet could be dead after the very game.
This isn't Hawaii coming from Australia, a bye last year for Harbaugh. 35 pt favorites.
+135 is absolute crap for such a play.
You're betting them to get 8 wins but 10 wins at +135 is not bad. Come on. Absolutely ridiculous.
It is an awful play. Look at the schedule. They are slight favorites in the very first, quite losable game, vs. Florida for which some solid cappers here believe the Gators could be favored. That, if it happens leaves a single loss to get the over (PSU Wisconsin OSU and that's just the murderer's row I'm naming). The bet could be dead after the very game.
This isn't Hawaii coming from Australia, a bye last year for Harbaugh. 35 pt favorites.
+135 is absolute crap for such a play.
You're betting them to get 8 wins but 10 wins at +135 is not bad. Come on. Absolutely ridiculous.
It is an awful play. Look at the schedule. They are slight favorites in the very first, quite losable game, vs. Florida for which some solid cappers here believe the Gators could be favored. That, if it happens leaves a single loss to get the over (PSU Wisconsin OSU and that's just the murderer's row I'm naming). The bet could be dead after the very game.
This isn't Hawaii coming from Australia, a bye last year for Harbaugh. 35 pt favorites.
+135 is absolute crap for such a play.
You're betting them to get 8 wins but 10 wins at +135 is not bad. Come on. Absolutely ridiculous.
I agree that 9.5 seems like a bad number. Must go 2-2 against Florida (neutral site), at Penn State, at Wisconsin, vs. Ohio State. And if 2-2 in these 4 games, then no slip ups the rest of the way for a young team.
I agree that 9.5 seems like a bad number. Must go 2-2 against Florida (neutral site), at Penn State, at Wisconsin, vs. Ohio State. And if 2-2 in these 4 games, then no slip ups the rest of the way for a young team.
Wouldn't follow that advice but it looks like UNI already bet so it's a moot point.
First of all it wasn't advice. Call it an awfull play if you wish, I said SMALL bet as in $50. Look at the last two years. Who saw Penn St winning the Big10 Title? I had them winning over 7 games at even money and thought that bet was toast after Michigan steamrolled them. But it came through and I was kicking myself for not betting the title. In 2015, who saw Iowa in the Title game, losing by an arm's length? As I recall, no one here had them winning all those games.
Futures betting is really not my thing. Appear very risky no matter what you bet. Soooo much can happen in a season. Nebraska was doing ok last year until almost the entire O-line went down. Ohio State crushed a depleted Nebraska team. Could have easily been Ohio State who had their O-line depleted and Nebraska could have made a game of it. Just an example.
So you have to say, as of today how I do I see it unfolding?
I see Michigan winning 9 games as Connelly predicts and then pulling a small upset in one of the three remaining games where he has them in the 40's percent chance.
Yes, it's chancy, that's why I got +135 and not -130. And that's why it's a small bet.
Wouldn't follow that advice but it looks like UNI already bet so it's a moot point.
First of all it wasn't advice. Call it an awfull play if you wish, I said SMALL bet as in $50. Look at the last two years. Who saw Penn St winning the Big10 Title? I had them winning over 7 games at even money and thought that bet was toast after Michigan steamrolled them. But it came through and I was kicking myself for not betting the title. In 2015, who saw Iowa in the Title game, losing by an arm's length? As I recall, no one here had them winning all those games.
Futures betting is really not my thing. Appear very risky no matter what you bet. Soooo much can happen in a season. Nebraska was doing ok last year until almost the entire O-line went down. Ohio State crushed a depleted Nebraska team. Could have easily been Ohio State who had their O-line depleted and Nebraska could have made a game of it. Just an example.
So you have to say, as of today how I do I see it unfolding?
I see Michigan winning 9 games as Connelly predicts and then pulling a small upset in one of the three remaining games where he has them in the 40's percent chance.
Yes, it's chancy, that's why I got +135 and not -130. And that's why it's a small bet.
Cam Akers- RB FSU +8500 25/2125 Longshot but tasty, if he gets the ball enough and they win enough (I believe they will win enough) it could be interesting
Derrius Guice-RB LSU +1200 25/300 He is an absolute beast and I personally think he's better than Fournette. He'll get plenty of chances to prove it this year. He has to show up in the big games.
Trace McSorley-QB Penn State +2600 25/650 Coming off a big year he can still improve some things. The schedule is there to put up big numbers and the wins should come with those big numbers.
Cam Akers- RB FSU +8500 25/2125 Longshot but tasty, if he gets the ball enough and they win enough (I believe they will win enough) it could be interesting
Derrius Guice-RB LSU +1200 25/300 He is an absolute beast and I personally think he's better than Fournette. He'll get plenty of chances to prove it this year. He has to show up in the big games.
Trace McSorley-QB Penn State +2600 25/650 Coming off a big year he can still improve some things. The schedule is there to put up big numbers and the wins should come with those big numbers.
Miami to win ACC Coastal +115 25/29 Nothing big here, just nice to have plus money.
Penn State to win Big10 East +345 25/86 My feelings about PSU are well documented above
Utah to win Pac12 South +900 25/225 Was looking for someone to back in case USC falters and I found one. They play at USC but the Trojans could be having a little look-ahead situation to their game the following week in South Bend. Utes also play Stanford, UCLA, Washington State and Colorado at home.
Miami to win ACC Coastal +115 25/29 Nothing big here, just nice to have plus money.
Penn State to win Big10 East +345 25/86 My feelings about PSU are well documented above
Utah to win Pac12 South +900 25/225 Was looking for someone to back in case USC falters and I found one. They play at USC but the Trojans could be having a little look-ahead situation to their game the following week in South Bend. Utes also play Stanford, UCLA, Washington State and Colorado at home.
SMU to win AAC +3500 $25/875 I focused on the West division here because South Florida should roll in the East and these give me nice hedge options. Houston will be good, but I need to see what Applewhite does there, I expect Tulsa to be down and Memphis is not impressing me as of now.
Miami to win ACC +525 $25/131 Another case of focusing on a division with a hedge option in the Championship game... Canes have the edge on 5 of the 6 other teams in the Coastal on defense and VTech is going to be down this year.
Penn State to win Big10 +450 $25/113 My thoughts on PSU are stated in post #1...
TCU to win Big12 +1000 $25/250 4-5 teams can win this conference so at these odds, why not?
One more...
West Virginia to win Big12 +1750 $25/438 Same thinking as TCU, a talented team in a what could be a wide open conference
SMU to win AAC +3500 $25/875 I focused on the West division here because South Florida should roll in the East and these give me nice hedge options. Houston will be good, but I need to see what Applewhite does there, I expect Tulsa to be down and Memphis is not impressing me as of now.
Miami to win ACC +525 $25/131 Another case of focusing on a division with a hedge option in the Championship game... Canes have the edge on 5 of the 6 other teams in the Coastal on defense and VTech is going to be down this year.
Penn State to win Big10 +450 $25/113 My thoughts on PSU are stated in post #1...
TCU to win Big12 +1000 $25/250 4-5 teams can win this conference so at these odds, why not?
One more...
West Virginia to win Big12 +1750 $25/438 Same thinking as TCU, a talented team in a what could be a wide open conference
Wouldn't follow that advice but it looks like UNI already bet so it's a moot point.
Michigan does have a tough schedule. But Harbaugh is in his 3rd year and all the kids he started recruiting from day 1 are now Juniors. Wouldn't suprise me if they got 10
Wouldn't follow that advice but it looks like UNI already bet so it's a moot point.
Michigan does have a tough schedule. But Harbaugh is in his 3rd year and all the kids he started recruiting from day 1 are now Juniors. Wouldn't suprise me if they got 10
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