I don't like to rant very often on here but kind of tired of seeing so
much miss information posted on here by so called cappers who think you
have to bet fav no larger than -120 to make real profit. That is a huge
pile of BS and something I really feel like the books have put out there
for everyone to believe and has kind of stuck to some people and passed
on from one person to next but if you were to look at the odds,& stats you
would see that betting the big favs is where the guaranteed money/profit is
year after year. Here are the stats for the past 4 years betting on fav
larger than -180. These are if you bet each game $100.
2014: 214 games 150-64 avg line -184 betting on Fav +$2100 against -$3560 2015: 252 games 185-67 avg line -192.7 betting on Fav $4277 against -$5708 2016: 415 games 294-121 avg line -199.6 betting on Fav $3143 against -$5609 2017: 81 games 63-18 <==wow! avg line -191.9 betting on Fav $2595 against -$2929
these are all off of SQDL so not making this sht up. You can have our buddies run these and they can verify them for you. that's a winning year, year after year and that's only betting $100 a big favorite.
If you want to narrow it down even further, if you were to play just the biggest favorite for each day in MLB season. You wold be hitting 72-75% with huge profits. With a Chase that would be even larger profit. I drop $500 a day on the biggest Fav and since May 1st I have had only 2 losing days which I doubled up the next day and even made that back.
So next time some one clowns you for putting ML -250 on a bet you can tell them to go kiss your azz because you have 75% more chance of making money than their sorry azz -110 they are praying to win with.
There is no capping required. no stats to look at . none of that BS. Trust me I did all that non sense for 2 years and still go bad beats. The moral of story is books know who is fav and will win. the more you fight it, the more you gonna get your head busted. put $500 and win $250-$350 and laugh all the way to the bank every freakin day.
I'm sure a few of your jack offs who think they are Kapperz will have some wise words to say.. but please before you do that make sure you have your stats ready to back it up because I have mine and I will show you profit day after day
I don't like to rant very often on here but kind of tired of seeing so
much miss information posted on here by so called cappers who think you
have to bet fav no larger than -120 to make real profit. That is a huge
pile of BS and something I really feel like the books have put out there
for everyone to believe and has kind of stuck to some people and passed
on from one person to next but if you were to look at the odds,& stats you
would see that betting the big favs is where the guaranteed money/profit is
year after year. Here are the stats for the past 4 years betting on fav
larger than -180. These are if you bet each game $100.
2014: 214 games 150-64 avg line -184 betting on Fav +$2100 against -$3560 2015: 252 games 185-67 avg line -192.7 betting on Fav $4277 against -$5708 2016: 415 games 294-121 avg line -199.6 betting on Fav $3143 against -$5609 2017: 81 games 63-18 <==wow! avg line -191.9 betting on Fav $2595 against -$2929
these are all off of SQDL so not making this sht up. You can have our buddies run these and they can verify them for you. that's a winning year, year after year and that's only betting $100 a big favorite.
If you want to narrow it down even further, if you were to play just the biggest favorite for each day in MLB season. You wold be hitting 72-75% with huge profits. With a Chase that would be even larger profit. I drop $500 a day on the biggest Fav and since May 1st I have had only 2 losing days which I doubled up the next day and even made that back.
So next time some one clowns you for putting ML -250 on a bet you can tell them to go kiss your azz because you have 75% more chance of making money than their sorry azz -110 they are praying to win with.
There is no capping required. no stats to look at . none of that BS. Trust me I did all that non sense for 2 years and still go bad beats. The moral of story is books know who is fav and will win. the more you fight it, the more you gonna get your head busted. put $500 and win $250-$350 and laugh all the way to the bank every freakin day.
I'm sure a few of your jack offs who think they are Kapperz will have some wise words to say.. but please before you do that make sure you have your stats ready to back it up because I have mine and I will show you profit day after day
with SDQL you can pull millions of stats that your regular Joe wouldn't be able to do or would take him days/ to month to pull. By using SDQL we can pull all these stats in matter of seconds. If someone else on here that knows SDQL can go aheadn and run the query and verify what I'm stating that would be great.
F and line<-180 and season=2014,2015,2016,2017
and for the biggest Favorite for each day: 2017 season
t:line = Min(n:line@n:date)[t:date] and season=2017
sorry if it looks like gibberish but it's SDQL language
if you are struggling and want to get your head above water for once, just try this for even a week if you want. You'll see what I'm talking about. I even run round robins on these and hit the sht out of them regularly.
with SDQL you can pull millions of stats that your regular Joe wouldn't be able to do or would take him days/ to month to pull. By using SDQL we can pull all these stats in matter of seconds. If someone else on here that knows SDQL can go aheadn and run the query and verify what I'm stating that would be great.
F and line<-180 and season=2014,2015,2016,2017
and for the biggest Favorite for each day: 2017 season
t:line = Min(n:line@n:date)[t:date] and season=2017
sorry if it looks like gibberish but it's SDQL language
if you are struggling and want to get your head above water for once, just try this for even a week if you want. You'll see what I'm talking about. I even run round robins on these and hit the sht out of them regularly.
Just to add that a good deal of favs really start to kick in right about now and that a good deal of favs early on are derived from nothing but least years numbers and stats. Ya gotta be real careful as there is real value in a lot of the dogs. This year is no exception.
IMHO betting dogs early on in the season is usually a good bet - BUT not against Kersahw or any other monster, nor like last year the Cubs in general. Last May 1st, after about 18 games under their belts was time to ride the Cubs, lay the wood, lay the runs, they were just clobbering everyone and at that time were +70 runs.
Other than stuff like that, again, I feel hitting some of the big favs is a good thing starting about 20%-30% into the season when pitchers are in form and you have a good idea about a team's real stregnth and power rankings.
Just to add that a good deal of favs really start to kick in right about now and that a good deal of favs early on are derived from nothing but least years numbers and stats. Ya gotta be real careful as there is real value in a lot of the dogs. This year is no exception.
IMHO betting dogs early on in the season is usually a good bet - BUT not against Kersahw or any other monster, nor like last year the Cubs in general. Last May 1st, after about 18 games under their belts was time to ride the Cubs, lay the wood, lay the runs, they were just clobbering everyone and at that time were +70 runs.
Other than stuff like that, again, I feel hitting some of the big favs is a good thing starting about 20%-30% into the season when pitchers are in form and you have a good idea about a team's real stregnth and power rankings.
Just to add that a good deal of favs really start to kick in right about now and that a good deal of favs early on are derived from nothing but least years numbers and stats. Ya gotta be real careful as there is real value in a lot of the dogs. This year is no exception.
IMHO betting dogs early on in the season is usually a good bet - BUT not against Kersahw or any other monster, nor like last year the Cubs in general. Last May 1st, after about 18 games under their belts was time to ride the Cubs, lay the wood, lay the runs, they were just clobbering everyone and at that time were +70 runs.
Other than stuff like that, again, I feel hitting some of the big favs is a good thing starting about 20%-30% into the season when pitchers are in form and you have a good idea about a team's real stregnth and power rankings.
I got HOU tonight.
BOL
that's a fair point you made and actually hold true. Most of the losses for 2017 season for the big fav over -180 did come in the beginning to mid April, but after that it's been a one way street of nothing but winners.. but for the favorites over -200, it doesnt' matter what part of the season you start. Those hold true and are 80% winners any freaking day of the year.
Just to add that a good deal of favs really start to kick in right about now and that a good deal of favs early on are derived from nothing but least years numbers and stats. Ya gotta be real careful as there is real value in a lot of the dogs. This year is no exception.
IMHO betting dogs early on in the season is usually a good bet - BUT not against Kersahw or any other monster, nor like last year the Cubs in general. Last May 1st, after about 18 games under their belts was time to ride the Cubs, lay the wood, lay the runs, they were just clobbering everyone and at that time were +70 runs.
Other than stuff like that, again, I feel hitting some of the big favs is a good thing starting about 20%-30% into the season when pitchers are in form and you have a good idea about a team's real stregnth and power rankings.
I got HOU tonight.
BOL
that's a fair point you made and actually hold true. Most of the losses for 2017 season for the big fav over -180 did come in the beginning to mid April, but after that it's been a one way street of nothing but winners.. but for the favorites over -200, it doesnt' matter what part of the season you start. Those hold true and are 80% winners any freaking day of the year.
I did a run on the numbers and -180 seems to be the sweet spot for this year.
The month makes a big difference.
(-180 or worse) April +$115 May +$2675 (so far)
There was a stretch in May where it went 27-0. With a run like that, it is impossible to lose. But, will it keep up that pace for June?
of course it will having losing days but over all it's all + money bro. Look at the previous years. If you smart about it you can do a decent chase to compensate for the loses. Look the biggest fav for each day. That's where I make my money. You don't have to play all of them,
I did a run on the numbers and -180 seems to be the sweet spot for this year.
The month makes a big difference.
(-180 or worse) April +$115 May +$2675 (so far)
There was a stretch in May where it went 27-0. With a run like that, it is impossible to lose. But, will it keep up that pace for June?
of course it will having losing days but over all it's all + money bro. Look at the previous years. If you smart about it you can do a decent chase to compensate for the loses. Look the biggest fav for each day. That's where I make my money. You don't have to play all of them,
Also, now that I have my bet in I also have learned that the big (or should I say "solid") favs start to tumble after the all star break usually for about 6 weeks.
I've been saying this for years that something changes after the allstar break.
I'll noodle around SDQL, have not been there is a few years and usually used them for NFL.
Anyway interesting stats reagrding April (and earlyu May) that totally allign with everything I've seen in all of my big years of experience. I'm almost an old fart....
Also, now that I have my bet in I also have learned that the big (or should I say "solid") favs start to tumble after the all star break usually for about 6 weeks.
I've been saying this for years that something changes after the allstar break.
I'll noodle around SDQL, have not been there is a few years and usually used them for NFL.
Anyway interesting stats reagrding April (and earlyu May) that totally allign with everything I've seen in all of my big years of experience. I'm almost an old fart....
Also, now that I have my bet in I also have learned that the big (or should I say "solid") favs start to tumble after the all star break usually for about 6 weeks.
I've been saying this for years that something changes after the allstar break.
I'll noodle around SDQL, have not been there is a few years and usually used them for NFL.
Anyway interesting stats reagrding April (and earlyu May) that totally allign with everything I've seen in all of my big years of experience. I'm almost an old fart....
I ran the query for months of July and August which would cover 6 weeks after all star break and -180 and better fav still killing it:
after all star break for month of July and August only: < -180ML
49-17 for 2014 +$1483 60-23 for 2015 +$1122 91-34 for 2016 +$1691
< -200 ML 25-5 for 2014 +$1350 35-10 for 2015 +$1145 55-22 for 2016 +$420
after all star break to end of season: -180 and better..
90-38 $1168 for 2014 125-49 $2247 for 2015 152-60 $2153 for 2016
so no matter how you look at it, there are no losing months
Also, now that I have my bet in I also have learned that the big (or should I say "solid") favs start to tumble after the all star break usually for about 6 weeks.
I've been saying this for years that something changes after the allstar break.
I'll noodle around SDQL, have not been there is a few years and usually used them for NFL.
Anyway interesting stats reagrding April (and earlyu May) that totally allign with everything I've seen in all of my big years of experience. I'm almost an old fart....
I ran the query for months of July and August which would cover 6 weeks after all star break and -180 and better fav still killing it:
after all star break for month of July and August only: < -180ML
49-17 for 2014 +$1483 60-23 for 2015 +$1122 91-34 for 2016 +$1691
< -200 ML 25-5 for 2014 +$1350 35-10 for 2015 +$1145 55-22 for 2016 +$420
after all star break to end of season: -180 and better..
90-38 $1168 for 2014 125-49 $2247 for 2015 152-60 $2153 for 2016
so no matter how you look at it, there are no losing months
And that's at a flat $100 a game? I'm primarily a dog player but always wondered about this.
Yeah bro. that's only on $100. I have spend hours and days looking at dogs and there just isn't any value playing them to win consistently. You win big when you win with them but hard to win with big dogs. I saw value in taking dogs -2.5 (reverse RL) and that was pretty decent if it was parlyed but other than than it's a waste of time unless you want to spend days and hours capping them and maybe hitting a few here and there. )
And that's at a flat $100 a game? I'm primarily a dog player but always wondered about this.
Yeah bro. that's only on $100. I have spend hours and days looking at dogs and there just isn't any value playing them to win consistently. You win big when you win with them but hard to win with big dogs. I saw value in taking dogs -2.5 (reverse RL) and that was pretty decent if it was parlyed but other than than it's a waste of time unless you want to spend days and hours capping them and maybe hitting a few here and there. )
Getting even money on both sides of a baseball game just ain't happenening unless it's the playoffs and even then....
If you have a team with a 75% chance of winning (3 out of 4) like HOU tonight (up 1-0 over DET bot 3rd) that's -$300 on a true line.
But you never see a -$300 line because everyone would take the dog - even on a -$230, $240, -$250 you'd still get 90% of the action on the dog, not to mention the diff on the take back would be like 30 or 40 bucks.
"Screw the fav, give me 2-1, all they gotta do is win a baseball game!" (me every April).
Vegas knows they can hang a line that looks fairly reasonable TO THE PUBLIC. But HOU 75% chance of winning tonight @ -$310 / +$275 is not gonna work, everyone would take DET @ +$275.
So Vegas puts up a -$220 +$195 line with not a lot of $ (forget ticket count) on HOU and hopes to win 3 out of 4 on the DET or dog wagers. They know the bets will be limited on the -$220 fav so why pay the dog players their deserved $275? Why give them a break or a decent line when they are going to bet it ANYWAY?
So they pay $195 instead of $275 and the HOU 75% chance of winning still exists and they win 3 out of 4 and pay out +$195 for every $300 they take in. Like Steve Martin says in the Jerk, "It's a profit deal!"
Getting even money on both sides of a baseball game just ain't happenening unless it's the playoffs and even then....
If you have a team with a 75% chance of winning (3 out of 4) like HOU tonight (up 1-0 over DET bot 3rd) that's -$300 on a true line.
But you never see a -$300 line because everyone would take the dog - even on a -$230, $240, -$250 you'd still get 90% of the action on the dog, not to mention the diff on the take back would be like 30 or 40 bucks.
"Screw the fav, give me 2-1, all they gotta do is win a baseball game!" (me every April).
Vegas knows they can hang a line that looks fairly reasonable TO THE PUBLIC. But HOU 75% chance of winning tonight @ -$310 / +$275 is not gonna work, everyone would take DET @ +$275.
So Vegas puts up a -$220 +$195 line with not a lot of $ (forget ticket count) on HOU and hopes to win 3 out of 4 on the DET or dog wagers. They know the bets will be limited on the -$220 fav so why pay the dog players their deserved $275? Why give them a break or a decent line when they are going to bet it ANYWAY?
So they pay $195 instead of $275 and the HOU 75% chance of winning still exists and they win 3 out of 4 and pay out +$195 for every $300 they take in. Like Steve Martin says in the Jerk, "It's a profit deal!"
I ran the query for months of July and August which would cover 6 weeks after all star break and -180 and better fav still killing it:
after all star break for month of July and August only: < -180ML
49-17 for 2014 +$1483 60-23 for 2015 +$1122 91-34 for 2016 +$1691
< -200 ML 25-5 for 2014 +$1350 35-10 for 2015 +$1145 55-22 for 2016 +$420
after all star break to end of season: -180 and better..
90-38 $1168 for 2014 125-49 $2247 for 2015 152-60 $2153 for 2016
so no matter how you look at it, there are no losing months
Good stuff, maybe I just suck in July and August and not to make you do any extra work I have not played much the 2nd half of any MLB season ON MY OWN for about 7 or 8 years.
I usually tail or just take it easy until just before the play offs when some teams are fighting for their playoff lives. Then I jump back into the ring with a bunch of clowns and we attack the bull....
Maybe things have changed, I've been in this game since 1982. I'll have to keep a better eye on the 2nd half this year.
I ran the query for months of July and August which would cover 6 weeks after all star break and -180 and better fav still killing it:
after all star break for month of July and August only: < -180ML
49-17 for 2014 +$1483 60-23 for 2015 +$1122 91-34 for 2016 +$1691
< -200 ML 25-5 for 2014 +$1350 35-10 for 2015 +$1145 55-22 for 2016 +$420
after all star break to end of season: -180 and better..
90-38 $1168 for 2014 125-49 $2247 for 2015 152-60 $2153 for 2016
so no matter how you look at it, there are no losing months
Good stuff, maybe I just suck in July and August and not to make you do any extra work I have not played much the 2nd half of any MLB season ON MY OWN for about 7 or 8 years.
I usually tail or just take it easy until just before the play offs when some teams are fighting for their playoff lives. Then I jump back into the ring with a bunch of clowns and we attack the bull....
Maybe things have changed, I've been in this game since 1982. I'll have to keep a better eye on the 2nd half this year.
thanks for the input my friend. appreciate it. I play trends and #s. MLB is unique that it has the ability for you to bet 3=4 times on a team. It makes it easier than NBA to bet on since it's not based off of 1 game. Also it gives you the opportunity to have some decent chase systems once you have good filters in place.
thanks for the input my friend. appreciate it. I play trends and #s. MLB is unique that it has the ability for you to bet 3=4 times on a team. It makes it easier than NBA to bet on since it's not based off of 1 game. Also it gives you the opportunity to have some decent chase systems once you have good filters in place.
This is very interesting my man Extremist. Question, do you play all favs over 180 each day? or do you pick and choose the best five favs for that day and play those? I appreciate your time putting the stats together on SDQL.
This is very interesting my man Extremist. Question, do you play all favs over 180 each day? or do you pick and choose the best five favs for that day and play those? I appreciate your time putting the stats together on SDQL.
This is very interesting my man Extremist. Question, do you play all favs over 180 each day? or do you pick and choose the best five favs for that day and play those? I appreciate your time putting the stats together on SDQL.
You won't find very many days whre you have 4 or 5 fav over -180. But like today there were quite a few and I'm playing all of them be. But mostly I play the 2 highest lines each day over -175 or so.. and alot of times I will take 4 like today and do a round robin with them on ML or RL
This is very interesting my man Extremist. Question, do you play all favs over 180 each day? or do you pick and choose the best five favs for that day and play those? I appreciate your time putting the stats together on SDQL.
You won't find very many days whre you have 4 or 5 fav over -180. But like today there were quite a few and I'm playing all of them be. But mostly I play the 2 highest lines each day over -175 or so.. and alot of times I will take 4 like today and do a round robin with them on ML or RL
Screw Kershaw, give me the dog @ +$225, all they gotta do is win a baseball game!
just kidding, felt better value on HOU McCullers vs Zimm tonight and also Det's pen sucks.
But yeah Kershaw looked un hittable last outting (vs Cueto) 7 scoreless innings and Lynn is a righty which LA hits better than lefties. However Lynn in 3-1 vs LA and has been pitching well, better than Zimm.
Screw Kershaw, give me the dog @ +$225, all they gotta do is win a baseball game!
just kidding, felt better value on HOU McCullers vs Zimm tonight and also Det's pen sucks.
But yeah Kershaw looked un hittable last outting (vs Cueto) 7 scoreless innings and Lynn is a righty which LA hits better than lefties. However Lynn in 3-1 vs LA and has been pitching well, better than Zimm.
Screw Kershaw, give me the dog @ +$225, all they gotta do is win a baseball game!
just kidding, felt better value on HOU McCullers vs Zimm tonight and also Det's pen sucks.
But yeah Kershaw looked un hittable last outting (vs Cueto) 7 scoreless innings and Lynn is a righty which LA hits better than lefties. However Lynn in 3-1 vs LA and has been pitching well, better than Zimm.
So I picked my spot with HOU vs Zimm.
yeah hope Astros can hold them off. they just got a little closer with that 2 run inning
Screw Kershaw, give me the dog @ +$225, all they gotta do is win a baseball game!
just kidding, felt better value on HOU McCullers vs Zimm tonight and also Det's pen sucks.
But yeah Kershaw looked un hittable last outting (vs Cueto) 7 scoreless innings and Lynn is a righty which LA hits better than lefties. However Lynn in 3-1 vs LA and has been pitching well, better than Zimm.
So I picked my spot with HOU vs Zimm.
yeah hope Astros can hold them off. they just got a little closer with that 2 run inning
You won't find very many days whre you have 4 or 5 fav over -180. But like today there were quite a few and I'm playing all of them be. But mostly I play the 2 highest lines each day over -175 or so.. and alot of times I will take 4 like today and do a round robin with them on ML or RL
Just a nickel's worth of free advice, your stats from SQDL show good return playing the -$180 or higher ML for a flat $100. I love a parlay and a RL as much as the next guy (have HOU ML and RL tonight). Just sayin'.
You won't find very many days whre you have 4 or 5 fav over -180. But like today there were quite a few and I'm playing all of them be. But mostly I play the 2 highest lines each day over -175 or so.. and alot of times I will take 4 like today and do a round robin with them on ML or RL
Just a nickel's worth of free advice, your stats from SQDL show good return playing the -$180 or higher ML for a flat $100. I love a parlay and a RL as much as the next guy (have HOU ML and RL tonight). Just sayin'.
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