Only one I like for Wednesday right now and that is:
Eastern Washington -4
I haven't locked it in yet, but this will be a MAX play for me.
The Montana St Bobcats are a very young team with (unfortunately) very little talent. I have seen them @ Pepperdine and New Mexico, and their performances were simply terrible. No fundamentals to speak of really and generally atrocious offense.
The Bobcats have seen some of the worst opponents in the league and have proved to be maybe one tier above the worst of the worst. They are ranked 295 in strength of schedule vs EWU who are ranked 71. To compare both teams performances against their respective opponents EWU have an RPI of 0.52 vs Montana St's of 0.39 (big difference!).
How do the Bobcats play at home? Not significantly better than on the road. Their best performance is a 4-pt win over Cal State Bakersfield who have an RPI of 0.49. And that must have been a very good day for them because all their other performances are not nearly as strong. They lost at home to Seattle (RPI 0.44) by 12 to name one example.
How do EWU play on the road? Not bad. First the bad: A blowout loss to Washington St. EWU had a bad shooting night, one Cougar had a career night, and the game was over pretty early. Furthermore the Cougars dominated inside which could not be any less of a concern against the Bobcats. Now the good: EWU have single digit losses on the road to Gonzaga and Oregon. These are teams that would beat Montana St by 30+ in my estimation. EWU also beat Hawaii by 12 on the road, and later we found out that Hawaii is a very tough home team (wins over Xavier, Clemson, and a loss to Auburn at the buzzer). The last road loss on EWU's schedule is a 16-pt loss to St Mary's. This is a lot of points, but St Mary's is a top 40 team, and if we look at their other wins by about this amount, they put EWU on par with the likes of Northern Iowa (9-2 0.66 RPI) and Weber St. (8-3 0.54 RPI).
Eastern Washington's biggest problems have come against teams that could dominate them inside, and this is exactly what Montana St is one of the worst in the league at. Their center is their 6th leading scorer, and above him are all guards.
All in all, I don't think vegas has caught up with how bad Montana St is yet. They have been sheltered from all but the worst opponents until their last game against UNM which was a complete thrashing. That was my POD that day too at -21.5, and I'm glad I figured it out in time. EWU -4 looks even better than that to me, and it will be my POW and a max bet for me.
Only one I like for Wednesday right now and that is:
Eastern Washington -4
I haven't locked it in yet, but this will be a MAX play for me.
The Montana St Bobcats are a very young team with (unfortunately) very little talent. I have seen them @ Pepperdine and New Mexico, and their performances were simply terrible. No fundamentals to speak of really and generally atrocious offense.
The Bobcats have seen some of the worst opponents in the league and have proved to be maybe one tier above the worst of the worst. They are ranked 295 in strength of schedule vs EWU who are ranked 71. To compare both teams performances against their respective opponents EWU have an RPI of 0.52 vs Montana St's of 0.39 (big difference!).
How do the Bobcats play at home? Not significantly better than on the road. Their best performance is a 4-pt win over Cal State Bakersfield who have an RPI of 0.49. And that must have been a very good day for them because all their other performances are not nearly as strong. They lost at home to Seattle (RPI 0.44) by 12 to name one example.
How do EWU play on the road? Not bad. First the bad: A blowout loss to Washington St. EWU had a bad shooting night, one Cougar had a career night, and the game was over pretty early. Furthermore the Cougars dominated inside which could not be any less of a concern against the Bobcats. Now the good: EWU have single digit losses on the road to Gonzaga and Oregon. These are teams that would beat Montana St by 30+ in my estimation. EWU also beat Hawaii by 12 on the road, and later we found out that Hawaii is a very tough home team (wins over Xavier, Clemson, and a loss to Auburn at the buzzer). The last road loss on EWU's schedule is a 16-pt loss to St Mary's. This is a lot of points, but St Mary's is a top 40 team, and if we look at their other wins by about this amount, they put EWU on par with the likes of Northern Iowa (9-2 0.66 RPI) and Weber St. (8-3 0.54 RPI).
Eastern Washington's biggest problems have come against teams that could dominate them inside, and this is exactly what Montana St is one of the worst in the league at. Their center is their 6th leading scorer, and above him are all guards.
All in all, I don't think vegas has caught up with how bad Montana St is yet. They have been sheltered from all but the worst opponents until their last game against UNM which was a complete thrashing. That was my POD that day too at -21.5, and I'm glad I figured it out in time. EWU -4 looks even better than that to me, and it will be my POW and a max bet for me.
I wanted to say a little bit more about Eastern Washington's blowout loss at Washington St that I forgot to mention. Washington St is a strong team and capable of blowout wins at home. They blew out Santa Clara who have knocked off both New Mexico and Villanova. I'm not reading too much into this loss for all the reasons mentioned, and it may even be part of why we are getting a good line on EWU.
I wanted to say a little bit more about Eastern Washington's blowout loss at Washington St that I forgot to mention. Washington St is a strong team and capable of blowout wins at home. They blew out Santa Clara who have knocked off both New Mexico and Villanova. I'm not reading too much into this loss for all the reasons mentioned, and it may even be part of why we are getting a good line on EWU.
Some more info: Last year these two teams met when EWU was 4-13 and Montana St was 11-7. Montana St had a career 2H shooting 73% and won by 12 (after trailing 3 at halftime). What has happened since then? Montana St graduated their two leading scorers, and EWU added Colin Chiverton who at 18ppg is their new leading scorer by 5. And as discussed above with SOS's and RPI's EWU is now the better team by far.
Some more info: Last year these two teams met when EWU was 4-13 and Montana St was 11-7. Montana St had a career 2H shooting 73% and won by 12 (after trailing 3 at halftime). What has happened since then? Montana St graduated their two leading scorers, and EWU added Colin Chiverton who at 18ppg is their new leading scorer by 5. And as discussed above with SOS's and RPI's EWU is now the better team by far.
And to anyone else reading: Everything I said may sound great but remember always to bet responsibly! We've all seen plays that look much better than this go straight down the drain.
And to anyone else reading: Everything I said may sound great but remember always to bet responsibly! We've all seen plays that look much better than this go straight down the drain.
One point in Montana St's favor: They had a 6-pt home loss to ASU in their first game of the season. This is pretty good performance. ASU are 4-8 but with close losses to lots of solid teams. I didn't mention this earlier because I usually throw out every team's first game when capping just because you see so many wild results (and I think this is one of them), but in the interest of presenting a fair argument I should at least mention this game. ASU had 22 turnovers and gave up 16 offensive rebounds. Both of these numbers are higher than we've seen in any other Montana St game since, including wins against a D3 and a NAIA opponent, so it seems to be mostly a case of first-game sloppiness from ASU.
One point in Montana St's favor: They had a 6-pt home loss to ASU in their first game of the season. This is pretty good performance. ASU are 4-8 but with close losses to lots of solid teams. I didn't mention this earlier because I usually throw out every team's first game when capping just because you see so many wild results (and I think this is one of them), but in the interest of presenting a fair argument I should at least mention this game. ASU had 22 turnovers and gave up 16 offensive rebounds. Both of these numbers are higher than we've seen in any other Montana St game since, including wins against a D3 and a NAIA opponent, so it seems to be mostly a case of first-game sloppiness from ASU.
Almost all of Cleveland St's road efforts have been lackluster, and I like any decent team at +5 or better. Their only road win by more than 5 points was at URI who are 1-11. I watched their last game at USF and they were visibly disinterested in playing the 2H.
Almost all of Cleveland St's road efforts have been lackluster, and I like any decent team at +5 or better. Their only road win by more than 5 points was at URI who are 1-11. I watched their last game at USF and they were visibly disinterested in playing the 2H.
Nailed by POW by 14 points! That's what I'm talking about! Feels so good to win a big play! Congratulations EWU backers! And the Toledo win felt great too because they just barely hung on to cover after getting streamrolled the second half!
Nailed by POW by 14 points! That's what I'm talking about! Feels so good to win a big play! Congratulations EWU backers! And the Toledo win felt great too because they just barely hung on to cover after getting streamrolled the second half!
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